I'm just making my first and big prediction on VGChartz following the same scheme of BHR-3's famous predictions (I hope to have the same luck).
So what my prediction?
Sony will ship 10 million copies of GT5 until September 30th, 2012 (before celebrates two years).
Many factors should help this number happen like: PS3 price cut, GT5 price cut, bundles, etc... it's probable and I think that will happen.
For reference I'm listing here the shipped history of Gran Turismo 4 (I don't have all data).
| GRAN TURISMO 4 SHIPPED DATA | ||
| September 2005 | 6,790k | 6 months after launch |
| June 2006 | 7,630k | 1 year and 3 months after launch |
| September 2006 | 8,060k | 1 year and 6 months after launch |
| December 2006 | 8,790k | 1 year and 9 months after launch |
| June 2007 | 9,210k | 2 years and 3 months after launch |
| September 2007 | 9,520k | 2 years and 6 months after launch |
| December 2007 | 9,920k | 2 years and 9 months after launch |
| March 2008 | 10,060k | 3 years after launch |
| June 2008 | 10,180k | 3 years and 3 months after launch |
| December 2008 | 10,570k | 3 years and 9 months after launch |
| December 2009 | 10,980k | 4 years and 9 months after launch |
| December 2010 | 11,190k | 5 years and 9 months after launch |
| September 2011 | 11,380k | 6 years and 6 months after launch |
| December 2011 | 11,440k | 6 years and 9 months after launch |
| September 2012 | 11,600k | 7 years and 6 months after launch |
| March 2013 | 11,173k | 8 year after launch |
GT4 need near 3 years to top 10 million but now GT5 is tracking way better than it because shipped almost the same amount of GT4's 6 months in just 6 weeks.
So my prediction in numbers quarter by quarter:
| GRAN TURISMO 5 SHIPPED DATA (MY ESTIMATE) | ||||
| MONTH / YEAR | MY PREDICITION | SHIPPED | DIFF | COMMENTS |
| November 2010 | - | 5,520k | - | Release |
| December 2010 | - | 6,370k | - | First quarter |
| March 2011 | 6,970k | - | - | 4 months after launch |
| June 2011 | 7,480k | - | - | 7 months after launch |
| September 2011 | 7,930k | 7,300k | -630k | 10 months after launch |
| December 2011 | 8,920k | 7,430k | -1,490k | 1 year and 1 month after launch |
| March 2012 | 9,310k | 1 year and 4 months after launch | ||
| June 2012 | 9,660k | 1 year and 7 months after launch | ||
| September 2012 | 9,970k | 9,190k | -780 | 1 year and 10 months after launch |
|
March 2013 |
Over 10,000k | 10,660k | - | 2 years and 4 months after launch |
Finally what do you think about that? I'm crazy or just overestimating GT5.
