SaviorX said:
...
It looks like, the Week Ending January 02, 2011, the Wii will have sold 84.6 million.
Starting from January 02, 2011, to the end of March 2011, the Wii will sell just under 3 million (~2.94m). Within the 9 months afterwards, the Wii will have to sell 12.56 million...
It won't be able to pull it off, but it will get REALLY close (98.0 million). My guess for 2011 looks like this:
|
24,393,681 |
( 49%) |
43,713,632 |
| |
21,802,884 |
(-11%) |
65,516,516 |
| 2008 |
24,393,681 (49%) |
43,713,632 |
| 2009 |
21,802,884 (-11%) |
65,516,516 |
| 2010 |
19,143,288 (-13%) |
84,659,804 |
| 2011 |
13,347,458 (-31%) |
98,007,262 |
My numbers are kinda conservative; almost worst-case scenario. Fortunately, several things can occur which can save the Wii from falling short of that illustrious 100 MILLION mark before next year ends.
Zelda can provide some type of hardware boost ( I doubt it would last more than a Week but who knows). Just Dance 2 can prevent EMEAA sales from dropping as harshly as I think they will, in conjunction with whatever Donkey Kong can muster over time (2.42m in EMEAA after 1 year I think).
A price drop to $150 could probably boost my numbers by 6%-12%. This will be the most important chance the Wii gets; a price cut is inevitable in 2011 but its impact is questionable. Dragon Quest X releasing in 2011 could also soften the Japanese slump ----which will be the cause of quite the percentage decline for the Wii.
Whatever new IP Miyamoto is working on could be a hit, or the Vitality Sensor could release in May and go Wii Fit on us with millions out the gate. Maybe some 3DS <--> Wii connectivity will spur on sales.
Whatever happens, the Wii will at least manage another 10m year. For the hopeful, here is what may happen if 2011 gives the Wii a break:
| Lucky 2011 |
15,506,259 (-19%) |
100,166,063 |
|
