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The initial shipments of Kinect are guaranteed to be sold out. I'd put money on it, and I generally only bet on sure things.

Whether I think the initial sales are warranted or not is an entirely different matter, but I'm not one to dismiss the positive effects of the huge marketing effort MS is throwing behind the launch. In that regard it doesn't even matter if the final product is well short of the initial Project Natal concept.

That alone is more likely than not to push the 3m projection MS has released for the season.

Of course sustained sales will still be entirely dependent upon how well Kinect software in 2011 delivers.