Kinect will likely end up like the wii. The problem with the casual crowd is that the buy maybe 3 or 4 games max per year. I have a felling that the 3rd party devs will also have trouble with kinect. Even hardcore games will end upp having trouble with kinect. Sure it will get a lot of sales in its first year or so but it will just end up like the wii (which i have one game for and is sitting in the closet).