There are so many things to consider.. The Kinect360 vs PSMove will arguable be the biggest, imo. Either one will win, or neighter will, and things just remain the same. If sony has a price cut though, look out.
I really don't think it should be put in such black & white terms. I think both Move and Kinect can be successful in their own terms. I believe Kinect will have a lot more initial sales than the Move but at the same time, as Sony have said, Move will be a slow burner.