Well to be honest he isn't completely wrong in his analysis. I think it depends greatly on perspective. Looking at his figures for Nintendo I can see his point. Nintendo basically makes up half of the console market, and almost three quarters of the hand held market. So when the sales of software slip there it shows up as being a downward trend for the market as a whole. That said he is correct as far as investors should be concerned. Lets be real here the Wii caused a major expansion in the market. Basically Nintendo created a bubble, and it isn't looking sustainable as far as software goes. Given the polar nature of its offerings early in the generation it is easy to see how it probably glutted the market, and probably doesn't have a strong core or hardcore base to pick up the slack.
Where as Microsoft and Sony do have strong core and hardcore bases which will buy in no matter what. That said I think he was expecting too much for all the great titles to be massive sellers. The fact that sales were up year over year I would say probably points to gamers buying more on these platforms, but they couldn't afford to buy all. This should be a lesson to developers to launch accordingly. A number of these titles would have had far greater sales if they got into the holiday season last year, or waited into the summer. Gamers can't simply buy more then a game a month, and during the first half of this year we had months that had three or four.
Speaking to digital downloading this just isn't going to happen, and woe to the developer who tries to deliver a sixty dollar game to market that is download only. He needs to acquaint himself with the used game market, lending, and the limits of storage. This shit is never going to fly for gamers until there is real financial incentive. Such as digital download games being twenty dollars cheaper, and that isn't going to happen with discs and cases being relatively cheap to produce, and recycle.
