mrstickball said:
How many years did it take for Nintendo to establish titles that would sell like Mario and Pokemon? The iPhone is 3 years old. Android is about a year and a half. Of course, if your talking free titles, then I'd imagine there are a few that easily rival Pokemon and Mario. Top paid titles have sold around 2 million copies so far, which is decent for the platform.
I think your being very premature on the subject. I know your one of those diehard Nintendo supporters, but in a few years, we will see a strategic shift to phones. There are too many advantages for developers to go to mobiles. You can argue that Nintendo may not, but if they lose a significant portion of their 3rd parties, they will not make it out unscathed.
Why go to mobile development? Money. The distribution model for cell gaming is much, MUCH more lucrative than any other platform available. It has the advantages of digital distribution (no need to ship copies of titles, much higher revenue share, more control over sales) without the negative aspects (namely the requirement to have an internet connection to download products, as all mobiles have a connection that allows for product downloads).
In time, developers will choose a 70% rev share over a 50% rev share with the DS or PSP. Look at Square - they've already begun to port their portable Final Fantasy titles to the iPhone, and have seen some pretty good success. GTA: CTW has done very well on the platform, and has sold about 300,000 copies (give or take). Not a bad success for a DS port, eh?
5 years. In 5 years, we won't be having these kinds of conversations, because we'll be looking at very convincing sales data that points to mobile gaming. Don't believe me? Ask the developers. I belong to a business group of professional developers via LinkedIn. The question was asked 'how will gaming change over the next 10 years?' - the unanimous answer was that mobile gaming would supplant traditional handheld gaming.
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