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I think its almost guaranteed to sell less than previous installments but not due to the quality of the game or userbase. I suspect given the huge amount of development time this game as been in, there will be a GT6 released within 2 years to really profit off the time they spent on the engine this generation. In fairness I hope I'm wrong though and the game is so stellar it becomes a killer app and sells 10 million within its first year. I'd rather that scenario as a gamer anyway.