@Cryo : you say 'nobody here is believeing Acti will do it' : that's exactly the point, if we all agree it can't happen, it's just fantasy land discussing what would happen next...
I said that in my opinion no, Sony wouldn't suffer that much, since all they would loose would be guitar hero and call of duty, which, while being nice games, have comparable or even better competitors on PS3 (rockband and Killzone 2)
But in any case, if we all agree it won't happen, then somehow deciding the impact is pointless...
I think its an empty threat today, but it doesn't mean it cannot happen.
Whille I don't hope so, if Sony fails to reverse the tendance with the PS3 and the PSP (yeah, that's still a possibility), the situation by the end of fiscal year 09 can be very different.
The problem with your opinion concerning how much Sony will suffer is that it's based on your tastes. Sorry mate, but they don't matter (neither are mines). We're talking about the industry and the figures are what they are. KZ2 weight 1.7M units (and I doubt we'll see KZ3 before some time since KZ2 is a financial disaster), COD 4 weight over 12M units (4.4 on PS3 only), with yearly iterations. Same difference between GH and RB (and I'm a RB fan).
And thinking, as you do, Acti only have these two licences is a mistake, because it has many others, meaningless to you, but sales speak. Tony Hawk, Lucasarts, all Dreamworks licences (very strong among kids), some big movies... Like it or not, this would hurt badly Sony. Maybe less than the loss of E.A. Sports, but still enough to loose grip on occidental markets and even trigger a chain reaction...
I don't like Kotick's view or attitude (hate them in fact) but hey, this guy took Activision in 1991, while the company was almost dead (banckrupcy situation) and bring it to where it is today (#1 third party publisher), so I would grant him some kind of credit, thinking about what he means instead of dismissing it bluntly, as Stringer did.