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I can venture a guess, though: maybe more detailed demographic analysis is in order?

Even with an install base of only 6 million units, those 6 million early adopters were probably exactly the demographic Gears was targeted for.
Early adopter of the first hd console means tech enthusiast (or "graphic whore" if you only own a Wii ;) ), thus sensible to Gears' eye-candy. The Xbox brand meant Halo and local multiplayer gaming, thus I also expect those early adopters to be shooter players and happy for the local coop.

On the other hand, even today with 21M PS3s the demographic is much more varied and less NA-centric, and the carried over users who went along for the brand were never big shooter fans. Actually I wouldn't be surprised if only about one third to half of the current PS3 install base is all that interested in shooters, so I expect sales in line with Gears 1 in absolute terms.



"All you need in life is ignorance and confidence; then success is sure." - Mark Twain

"..." - Gordon Freeman