The "If XXX console came out at $yyy.yy price argument", and why its WRONG.

[Final-Fan]

Sqrl said:

Words Of Wisdom said:

From the moment you say "If..." or "What if..." you are speculating. Once you begin speculating, you are changing the subject of the conversation. It's alright to say "That doesn't matter in relation to what we were just talking about" and "What you've suggested is incorrect" but treating these two statements as the same is a mistake.

All other things being equal, if the PS3 was dirt cheap and the Wii was hideously overpriced then the sales numbers would change. There's nothing about this statement that is incorrect, however real constraints prevent it from ever being relevant. Of course, hasty judgments about relevancy lead to mistakes (remember the opinions going around when the Revolution was first renamed to the Wii...).

Back to the point, does this add value to a conversation? Maybe, maybe not. It is amusing that people presenting this line of reasoning are actually devaluing their position. When you posit that sales would dramatically increase with a sizable pricecut you acknowledge that the utility of the good is below its price. A self-defeating argument for the enthusiast that makes this claim.

I think you have articulated the problem we are having here. I am not saying that in this fantasy world the concept is BS. I am saying in this world (aka reality) its BS. In effect rather than try and tell people "well its ok if you do it this way...but not that way..." I am skipping it and just saying "Don't...seriously just don't F'ing go there.." or the polite equivalent actually.

To give a real world example of how we as a society ostracize these people consider this situation....If we were talking about NFL football and I said "Yeah, the vikings sucked last year but if they had all the good players from the other teams and could pick and choose the best players from all time they would have done much better.".

I think anyone in that conversation would look at me like I was a complete moron, and rightly so because it has nothing to do with the conversation. As you can see from my points above I focus on illustrating why it has nothing to do with reality for that reason. Because there are people who do in fact hear this line of reasoning and repeat it as though it were true.

In fact the exact moment I thought up this thread topic was during a face to face conversation with a person in a gaming lab at school where they used this very reasoning when they made this comment...

- QUOTE - (Actual Comment Below)

"I bet if the PS3 was the same price as the DS it would sell like 10x better."

- END QUOTE - (Hopefully you didn't have an anyuerism)

They then proceeded to start talking about how they "could have removed certain features" but that it would "still be the same basic package" and how "in the end they would of made more profit" etc.... Just for the record I did walk away from the group when he said the quote above but I could still hear him trying to convince the 3 other people of his position. Only later I thought about "What if he does convince them?" The idea of one person believing it is scary...but two or three???. Luckily from what I overheard before heading out to my next class they weren't buying it but the fact that they were trying to have a serious debate about it is frightening to me. And just to reiterate..they were having a debate about this scenario in reality, this guy thought it was seriously something sony could have done...if that doesn't cause you concern for the future of the world then nothing will =P

Anyways, this idea that its only hypothetical is wrong. But I will say that the idea itself is not patently BS, only when applied to reality, which in effect is the only thing worth debating about due to the endless nature of hypothetical situations. If people want to discuss alternate reality sales numbers we can probably get ioi to create a "Twighlight Zone" forum for people to go to =P

 

So in other words my earlier response to ChichiriMuyo was exactly right: 

"OK, so it's perfectly fine to make up some fantasyland numbers and say "A fifty dollar PS3 would be sweet!"  I think that as consumers we can all get on board with that statement.  If you want to post about that, the only complaints you'll get are along the lines of 'WTF is the point of your post?  It means nothing.'

"But nobody wants to leave it there.  People want to take their fantasyland numbers and try to make them into some kind of statement about the real world.  And that is pure delusion.  That is what I see Sqrl fighting against."