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redspear on 06 September 2007
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kn said:
WiteoutKing said:

I won't repost my whole sig (it would be pointless), but after crunching the numbers for the last two weeks, I would like to direct people's attention to the last few bits about the Wii crossing the PS2. Particularly this part:



 Not a chance in hell.  The PS(2), when it came out, was graphically quite powerful given the technology of the generation.  Also included was the strong support of EA not to mention the DVD player inside it than many bought for having that as well.  The Wii, while innovative, does not have anything in it that is "cutting edge" and therefore isn't going to have the same shelf life.

The bottom line is that the Wii probably has a 4-5 year shelf life tops and I highly expect it will hit, at max, 50% of the lifetime sales of the PS2.

 

The first generation PS2 games were graphically inferior to the second generation Dreamcast which was already cheaper and the Dreamcast alos support online out of the box.

The shelf life of the PS2 has nothing to do with it being a graphical power house. If that were the case the XBOX would still be kicking instead the shelf life has more to do with the benefits of winning the generation a large library that is able to entice  value shoppers. The SNES had insane final legs outselling the PS1 for many months before it finally faded first in japan and second in America. Also the NES didn't die when the Genesis came out even with both the Master system and Genesis being far more powerful than the NES. The PS1 even hung in there against both the Dreamcast at 199 and the PS2 at first. The PS2 leapfrogged the PS1 because of BC and intergrated DVD player though.

If the Wii wins this generation than it will have longer than a four year lifespan. While the next gen consoles are being introduced the Wii will be selling to the bargain basement crowd at 79 dollars and limping with 100K a month sales enough for third parties to justify contiuing to create Wii games for a bit longer.

 

The one valid point you make is the support of EA and otehr 3rd parties for the PS2 the Wii does not have that out of the box but you are deluding yourself if that won't happen if the Wii is hte first to make 30 million while the other consoles are struggling to get to 10 and 18 million user bases.

 

I don't think the Wii will pass the PS2 in Lifetime sales but it is possible and more likely than either the 360 or PS3 which are likely to have 4-5 year life cycles themselves. Right now both the PS3 and the 360 are tracking roughly the same as the XBOX. I would predict a final LTD ofn 30 million for each of them.