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Hmmz to me is seems that with DVD players now up to 30$ you can expect that the one that reaches the lowest price point first will eventually win.

Then i'm thinking in terms of Hi-Def (or true def or whatever) televisions that will be solds with a DVD player with it. In my vision it's more likely to include a 100$ HD-DVD set then a 200$ Blue-ray set.

And still remember that Sony keeps pushing formats only and only to gain money on every blue-ray disk sold. Where HD-DVD is patent pooled so far less money has to be earned.
Look at the miserable sales of the PS3, they expected to sell 6 million by march this year. So Sony is expecting lots and lots of Blue-Ray-money.