Is this game over for Sony?

[celine]

Ciao, I'm new here. I'm an italian ( like Super Mario :D ) gamer so forgive my bad english . Catofellow and Diomedes wrong compare Nintendo's handheld to Nintendo's console of the past. Gameboy was a "disruptive product" whereas Snes was a "competitive product". If Gameboy created a market and grew the industry, Snes competed with Genesis and lose marketshare though remain leader of the market. Gameboy color and advance were "competitive products" successfull thanks to no-competitions ( "sustain product" ). N64 was a "competitive product" with a inferior Business strategy. Ps1 gained 1st position thanks to superior Business model. At that time Sony undestood the market and the rivals better than Nintendo and Sega did. GC was also a very "competitive product" this is why the GC is a real failure despite its profitability. Now Nintendo DS is a "Disruptive System" ( DS ). PSP is a real gameboy-line killer but Nintendo with a "paradigm shift" destroy the market of gameboy-line and PSP so PSP is a worth product but irrilevant in the new trend up of the successfull "touch generation". If you compare hardware sales of PSP in 2005 to 2006 you can note that in Japan and USA the PSP trend is down, plus software sales are lower than DS's software sale and DS developement cost is lower than PSP. Nintendo DS' success is not based on Gameboy's fortune : 1- It's name is Nintendo Ds , not Gameboy DS or advance 2 etc... 2- DS outsold GBA sales in the first 2 years with the exception that at the time of GBA there wasn't a powerful rival like Sony. 3- DS is full of entire new games whereas PSP and GBA are full of porting. Wii strategy is like Nes and DS that is a "Disruptive strategy", this model it's the best counter-attack to vertical monopoly like Playstation. Wii don't compete with PS3 but can change the focus of industry ( gamers, journalism, financial resource, developers etc..). If Wii do it then PS3 and Sony will be doom because Sony bet the firm with PS3. The revolution talked by Nintendo's managers isn't the wiimote but the new "user experience" and the new business model. Diomedes cites japanese launch sale of past console, so I think that he can't see over the surface of the VG business : Dreamcast was already dead before it was even launched. N64 and Saturn failed to understand the market. 80% of the success of a console depend to the 4 year pre-launch because in this 4 years manufacter shape the business model of his product. Smart poster judge PS3's business model faults not PS3 initial result: 1- PS3 is expensive for a console but is cheap for a blueray-player. But what is PS3 really ? Ps3 is a trojan horse for Sony product like bravia, Blueray, cinema and music studios, PSP and most important of all for its future digital distribution. 2- PS3 developement cost and time are greater than Wii ( this is a key-factor for Wii ) 3- PS3 strong loss on retail price mean that royalties are more expensive. Wii hardware sale gain mean the opposite ( this is a key-factor for Wii ). 4- PS3 is a fantastic successor of PS-line ( very powerfull ) but customers could be bored by PS-line ( 12 long years ). This is why Wii have high hype. 5- PS3 is indeed a computer. Its present and future functionalities tend to replace thats of PC because Sony want that digital distribuition pass through PS3 and not PC whereas MS want it pass through PC-Windows this is the first motive for MS entrance in gaming market 5 years ago. Can Sony do this "paradigm shift" ? Ps3 isn't a product for a gamer but is for a gamer that want an elettronic product ( convergence ). Wii is for everyone ( this is a key-factor for Wii ) 6- Sony is trying to teach to costumers that Blueray is needed for gaming and 1080p is a feature worth the retail price, this is a stupid marketing behavior. Nintendo approach is Sony's opposite : "Playing is beliving". I'm very glad to read Aston's post, at least one that understand why N64 was a failure. I hope to chat with you in the future.