You make it sound like Wii is outselling 360 by 1 million + per month and can catch up by July 1.
Look at January
Americas: Wii>360 by ~ 175,000
Japan: Wii>360 by ~ 375,000
Europe: Wii>360? 360>Wii? i suspect the former at 100,000 more or so
That is 650,000/month. Feb-March will probably be more like 500,000. April will be 500,000 just in anticipation of Paper Mario /Golden week (Japan), maybe another 300k in the West. May-August probably back to 500,000 again. I say Wii can be within 1 million behind by August, but that it a far cry from being ahead by early summer. Again, November, October, September are the three most likely months of catching/passing 360. Halo 3 will be huge, but Nintendo will be going for the kill in Japan as DQIX, Smash Brothers and non-games carry the day to offset the 360 hype in the US. Catching up by July worldwide is outrageous. August is a huge long shot, but I'll give you this, it might just be possible (1-2%). September is unlikely, October is like 25%, November is close to 40%...
But all of this assumes 360 has no games besides Halo 3 to drive hardware.
Well that's what I'm proposing. I see Wii besting the 360 within the month of July. By August We will see Wii pulling ahead. You gotta remember Wii sales are slowed because of demand keeping these things out of the stores for any decent period of time. It's only recently that I started seeing Wiis in stores and basically one or two at best. And these don't last long. When I got my copy of Wii Play it was the only one LEFT! I had to visit different stores to find it! The first time I was looking for it just came home empty handed. People are STILL having stories here in mid-March about not being able to find Wiis & waiting in lines to get one. The best source for this kind of info is talking to store clerks in the electronic depts. at Wal-Marts & stores like that. Folks who don't really care about games and are exasperated at the work put on them by these game system buyers.
I've had mine since December the 6th after foolishly thinking I could just waltz in on launch day and get in line for a Wii at the last minute.
FOOLISH! I never bought a system a launch before & basically lucked out getting that Wii because I work a night job & could get to the store in the early morning hours. My friend who went with me that launch day & wants a Wii still hasn't gotten one yet.
Wii's sales are only held back by supply. That's all. Shipped DOES equal Sold (to customers not Sold to Retailers) when it comes to Wii because they are virtually sold out within minutes or hours upon reaching the stores. There are no Wii pyramids on the storeroom floor. Some people don't even know what the Wii box looks like.
I'm not saying 360 can't sell & that Halo 3 won't move units. That's a given. I actually see Guitar Hero II on XBox 360 being a bigger system seller & seeing them put that against PS3's launch shows me Microsoft means business.
Guitar Hero II on XBox 360: The Ramifications
But I guarantee you that we won't have to wait 'til fall to see Wii catching the 360. It will be the worldwide leader this summer I guarantee you. By holiday season will be start of its domination period which will carry it all the way through this generation as top system. By then it's not just gonna outsell the competition it's gonna overshadow the competition.
You'll be seeing me on these boards, trust me. Just wait and see what the numbers say to see if I'm full of hot air or some other type of 'substance'. I call it for July. That's when we'll see Wii catch the 360. I call it for 20 million at Dec 31, 2007. That's the worldwide tally of sales for Wii.
We'll just have to see if I'm right.
I don't play the caution game when I see a sure thing.
I don't like hedging bets. I'm very confident in my predictions.