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## Sales Discussion - In progress NPD predicting tool - View Post

zygote said:
 Symbios63 said: Oh, I totally agree, and that is the plan, I am just saying I will wait for first NPD data before trying to "weight" retailers. And when the time comes, I'll be happy to have suggestions. You can totally start trying to adjust the formula right away though :)

NS - 155(.30) + 148(.30) + 0(.20) + 157(.10) + 191(.10) = 125.7
PS4 - 127(.30) + 262(.30) + 266(.20) + 257(.10) + 148(.10) = 157.2
XBO - 29(.30) + 216(.30) + 48(.20) + 156(.10) + 212(.10) = 110.3
SNES - 18(.30) + 79(.30) + 0(.20) + 0(.10) + 97(.10) = 38.8
3DS - 0(.30) + 232(.30) + 0(.20) + 74(.10) + 81(.10) = 85.1

Here is a quick approximation without looking up figures and using your point totals.  I weighted Walmart and Amazon the same, Gamestop next, then Target and Best Buy the same.

So order would be PS4, NS, XBO, 3DS, SNES

However a worrying thing is the 0 slots.  I highly doubt that NS sold 0 at Gamestop which at .2 weight would be a decent jump.  Both XBO and PS4 both have numbers for all the stores.  Also SNES and 3DS both have 0s and I'm sure 3DS has sold something on Amazon and Gamestop which would definitely affect numbers.

Even with accurate weights, we would need to account for these 0s somehow.  If we take those in consideration, it should get us close to what we would expect and have seen from NPD so far this year with Switch a little behind PS4 numbers, XBO a definite 3rd, 3DS pushing behind XBO, and SNES last.

**Disclaimer: Point values do not possess any inherent value of their own, but only server as a comparison conversion figure to give an idea on position.  Finding approximate numbers sold would require more detailed data, such as exact revenue value of the specific list (gaming products) for each store and approximate unit count differences between the #1 and #100 items on each of the respective lists.

Good job,

About Gamestop list, I am considering scanning top 200 instead of 100, in order to have more systems listed (there are a lot of cheap figurines in that list which might explain the differences with the other lists).

A system ranked 20 would get 91 points as if it was ranked 10. A system ranked 170 would get 16 points as if it was 85...

That would not totally solve the zeros problem but it would make gamestop list closer to the others at least...

What do you think ?

- Gamestop old system :

1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 10 (+7) - 399.99\$ - Preorder
2 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 66 (+27) - 299.99\$ - In Stock
3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 92 (-2) - 399.99\$ - In Stock
4 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 99 (-) - 499.99\$ - In Stock

Out of Top 100 :

1 (-) - Super Nes Classic - 1 (+1) - 79.99\$ - Out of Stock

PS4 : 35 + 9 = 44 points (+25) ; XBO : 2 points (-) ; SnesC : 0 points (-100) ; PS4 (April) : 91 points (+7)

- Gamestop new system :

#### 1 (+1) - Playstation 4 Pro 1 Tb God of Wars - 10 (+7) - 399.99\$ - Preorder2 (+2) - Playstation 4 Slim 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 66 (+27) - 299.99\$ - In Stock3 (-) - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Glacier White - 92 (-2) - 399.99\$ - In Stock4 (+1) - XBox One X 1 Tb - 99 (-) - 499.99\$ - In Stock5 - Nintendo Switch Neon - 132 - 299.99\$ - In Stock6 - Nintendo Switch Neon + Zelda Bundle - 153 - 359.99\$ - In Stock7 - Nintendo Switch Neon + Mario Bundle - 166 - 359.99\$ - In Stock8 - Playstation 4 Pro 1Tb Star Wars Battlefront 2 - 176 - 399.99\$ - In Stock

Out of Top 200 :

1 (-) - Super Nes Classic - 1 (+1) - 79.99\$ - Out of Stock

PS4 : 68 + 55 + 13 = 136 points   ;   XBO : 52 points   ;   SnesC : 0 points   ;   PS4 (April) : 96 points   ;   NS :  35 + 24 + 18 = 77 points

Last edited by Symbios63 - on 26 March 2018