its definitely possible.
i would say between 35 million and 40 million.

Plans can change...

I have:

PS3 shipments = 24m LTD through March 31, 2009 (Sony beats its projection slightly)

Wii shipments = 51m LTD through March 31, 2009 (Nintendo beats its projection slightly)

Xbox 360 Shipments = 29.5m LTD through March 31, 2009 (if you believe the Ars Technica rumor that 360 will be $400/$300/$200 once early Sept rolls around)

Through June 09'

Wii shipments: 58m

PS3 shipments: 26m (price cut)

Xbox 360 shipments: 30.5m

Through Sept 09'

Wii Shipments: 65m

Xbox 360 Shipments: 32.3

PS3 Shipments: 28m

Through Dec 09'

Wii Shipments: 77.5m

Xbox 360 Shipments: 37m

PS3 Shipments: 34m 

Through Mar 10'

Wii Shipments: 82.5m

Xbox 360 Shipments: 38m

PS3 Shipments: 35.5m

Through June 10'

Wii Shipments: 87.5m

Xbox 360 Shipments: 39.5m

PS3 Shipments: 37.5m

Through Sept 10'

Wii Shipments: 92.5m

Xbox 360 Shipments: 40.5m

PS3 Shipments: 39m

Through Dec 10'

Wii Shipments: 100m (100m in four years - all time record if this happens - faster than DS & PS2 by months)

PS3 Shipments: 43m

Xbox 360 Shipments: 42.5m (new Xbox in this quarter potentially)

I had initially believed Xbox 360 would be passed by PS3 by the end of 2009. However, with stronger sales for 360 in Japan, and Microsoft actually doing a real price drop this September in the USA, and Sony not shipping as many PS3s as I had expected last quarter (about 1.35m lower than I had been expecting) it looks like it will be in 2010, if things keep going as they are. Through 2009, price cuts will favor Microsoft more than Sony so its really up to Microsoft to determine whether it wants to make mad monies or to smack Sony while it can for market share.

When you make your predictions of end of 2009, realistically you need to predict the price that the console will be at that time as well. For example, 40M PS3 at the current prices, very unlikely. 40M PS3 with price drops of $150 across the board, very likely. Of course, then you have to ask if a $150 price drop in 17 months is likely? Possible, but not really likely.

So, how much will Sony be able to cut on prices? Definitely $50. Gritting their teeth, $100. At that price point, next Christmas, PS3 should be able to move a bit more due to buying it as a Blu-Ray player with a now not-too-expensive game machine "added in", makes more sense pricewise than it does this Christmas.

As far as catching up with X360, unless MS wants to start a price war, late 2009 for PS3 to pass X360 is reasonable. I think MS is happy enough with the money it is now making (compared to the Xbox). But you never know. If MS dropped their prices say $150 in the next 17 months and Sony didn't want to match that, PS3 sales would be hurting. But on the other hand, they would be causing large losses to income either.

@ Source
Through Dec 10'

Wii Shipments: 100m (100m in four years - all time record if this happens - faster than DS & PS2 by months)

PS3 Shipments: 43m

Xbox 360 Shipments: 42.5m (new Xbox in this quarter potentially)

Through 2009, price cuts will favor Microsoft more than Sony so its really up to Microsoft to determine whether it wants to make mad monies or to smack Sony while it can for market share.

-----------------

*Nods* That's close to what I was talking about. I would presume that the price cuts mentioned would be around $50 each time.

As far as "Wii Shipments: 100m in four years - all time record if this happens", couldn't there be another record as well? A console selling for 4 years without a price cut. Or will there 'need' to be a price cut to reach that 100m in four years?

Plans don't change that dramatically.  They could beat their projection by a million, maybe 2 at most if costs come down faster than they project but they won't change to the point that an extra 8 million will be pumped out.   That's just illogical.

Their entire goal for the FY is profitability, not market share.  Even if costs come down some (still in the red) selling twice as much would negate the savings they just established.

hmmm.... well. In the last 30 weeks, the PS3 has sold 5.6266 million units, for an average of 187553 units/week. At this rate, it will sell 9752756 units through the end of December. However, if we assume average sales of 450000 units/week for the last eight weeks of the year (and this is not unreasonable as the PS3 averaged 403000 units/week during this period in 2007) then the total becomes 11852332 units for 2008. By being a little more (but not unreasonably) optimistic than these predictions, we may assume that PS3 sales will be ~13,000,000 for all of 2008. This would put the PS3 at just under 22 million units sold in total.

Now, assuming this is where the PS3 stands at the end of 2008, we move on to 2009. Since this will be the PS3's third (and thus prime) year, and given the fair number of AAA games coming out in this year, I think sales of 15,000,000 consoles for 2009 is definitely inside the realm of possibility (though it IS fairly optimistic). This would leave the PS3 at around 37 million units sold by the end of 2009.

Given that even the optimistic prediction above puts the PS3 at only 37 million by the end of 2009, 40 million is almost definitely not going to happen. However, 35-38 million is a definite possibility, and the console is unlikely to end up under 33 million units sold by the end of 2009.

I think 40m would be a max possible. But, not impossible.

I doubt it very much.

In short: Sony forecast 10m PS3 sales FY 08-09. Sales at the END of March '09 will be around 22m.

For your prediction to come true, they would have to DOUBLE FY shipments to 20m for FY 09-10. If they get upped to 15m, I think they are doing well. But 20m I think is just not going to happen.

It also means that for YOUR prediction to come true - the PS3 will have to sell 18m units in 9 months. That is basically "Wii" selling rates, or an average of 400k-450k per week - through the entire year.

Good luck with this prediction of yours. I won't estimate figures for end of '09 just yet, but I'm expecting something closer to 32m-35m.

I like how the arguments for the PS3 reaching 40 million essentially say the same thing: "But...uh...it's the F@#$ing PS3!!"

Give me one bit of proof. Something, anything. No speculation about how Blu-Ray is gonna knock off DVD as the primary platform of the masses.

Some people in this thread have provided actual facts (such as Sony's own projected shipments). Where is the same from the other side?