Forums - Sales Discussion - What is the lowest realistic expectation for lifetime sales of Wii,PS3,360?

Mummelmann said:
The first few pages are hilarious, even TheSource, who is every Wii fans favourite mod was being overly pessimistic!
I also love how Rol stated that most 3rd party dev's were shifting their support over to the Wii already back then. Where are these games? Surely with the short production times and low production price there should be a whole lot more 3rd party goodness there by now?

I'm not trying to diss anyone, I didn't even know this thread existed (it was before my time in here) but my point is that everyone f's up and makes mistakes and bad judgements/predictions regardless of preferred platform and games. Let's all do the boards a favour and remember that the next time someone pulls the high and mighty card.

Some good points but I think the reason people were being overly pessimistic is because this thread wasn't meant for what you actually expected the consoles to sell but lowest expectations as in if the Wii fad burst immediately or Sony's investors got tired of flushing away millions or MS gave up after the RROD fiasco crippled the Xbox brand image.



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Wii has already passed m y lowball prediction so all is good

 

My new lowball predictions would be

 

Wii 155 million

360 36 million

PS3  28 million



 

Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!!  Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)

TWRoO said:

here we go....posted 3rd of August, but i made the prediction about March on a different site (but they delete old threads)

any one agree with my numbers [WW, end of gen]
set out like this; absolute minimum <<< my predicted range <<< absolute max [in millions]

Wii - 60 <<< 80-90 <<< 150
PS3- 30 <<< 60-70 <<< 90
360- 25 <<< 30-40 <<< 50

as a breakdown i see US numbers being similar for all three with Wii being slightly ahead.... PAL regions i see a close battle with PS3 and Wii with maybe PS slightly ahead.... And Japan is pretty clearly Wii the winner.

all that is assuming a normal 5-6 year life for 360 [which is why min and max are so close to range]... a PS life of anywhere between 5 and 9 years, and Wii similar life though maybe no more than 8 years.

i think i might lower the predicted range for PS3 and higher the Wii one now though;

Wii - 60<<<100-110<<<150................PS3 - 30<<<50-60<<<90

that makes a total console sales of about 180-210 million. (the maximum numbers wont happen for all three consoles at once, same for minimum)

 

p.s...Davygee, your Sig predictions are all very conservative, DS will sell 60M+ PSP might manage 30M (now that slim is out) Wii minimum is 17M and 360 14M...PS3 i think should make 8M too.      Dunno if oyu made those predictions a while ago and are not allowing yourself to change them but i think all will be too low.

Neat... I totally forgot about these.

Here is a more up to date version:

Wii Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 105 150-165 200?
Japan 16 18-22 25
Americas 50 70-76 90
Others 39 62-67 85
PS3
Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 40
45-55 75
Japan 4 4-6 8
Americas 14 15-17 27
Others 22 26-32 40
X360
Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 50 50-60 70
Japan 1 1-1.5 2
Americas 30 30-36.5 44
Others 19 19-22 24

--------------------------------------------------------

DS Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 135 160-175 200?
Japan 30 31-34 35
Americas 47 57-62 65
Others 58 72-79 100
PSP Minimum Expected range Maximum
World 65 70-80 90
Japan 15 16-19 21
Americas 25 26-29 33
Others 25 28-32 36

 



I'd say 100 million for Wii (it'll probably end up doing better than the PS2, but I think the worst it could do would at least best the original Playstation numbers)

33 million for PS3 (I'm thinking around N64 numbers. If the whole 10 year span works out for them then obviously this would improve, but I highly doubt it'll last 10 years, as it looks like it'll be a struggle to even last 5)

40 million for the 360. (assuming MS doesn't cut its life short and release a new system, it looks like 360 has the potential to at least double the sales of its predecesor)