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Forums - Microsoft - In defense of Microsoft: A response to DMeisterJ

Rock_on_2008 said:
I would guess 25% of people buy more than one console.
read earlier in the thread.  5% buy two, 3% buy three.

 



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

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ok, if i read that first post right starcraft, your saying that sony lost ps2 owners to the 360 because the 360 sold a hundred some odd thousand units this week. so first of all your assuming that those owners were ps2 owners. a real far stretch but whatever. well cant i spin it around and say, if the ps3 was not powerful in the market right now, the 360 would have sold those 100,000 units and there for microsoft lost buisness to the ps3? considering the ps3 sold more units this week, i could make the argument that microsoft lost more buisness to sony than sony did to microsoft. ouch...



I thought it was 3%/2%. And I also seem to recall that it may have been for this gen, and therefore a very incomplete picture of what the situation may eventually be when the consoles are more mature.

[edit:  Squilliam, top of page 2:  "Just a point to understand, from what I saw of some research a while ago. 3% of console owners own 2 consoles and 2% of console owners own all 3. So 95% of console owners own just one.

"Edit: Think current gen console owners sorry."]



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
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The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

starcraft, do you know what this is? 



Final-Fan said:

starcraft said:
Final-Fan said:
 
2. I'm not sure what you mean by "beyond the present". Are you suggesting that DMeisterJ was insinuating something along the lines of "OMG 360 sales will die now that GTAIV is out!!! lol"? Because I'm pretty sure that's not what he meant by "beginning of the end". That would be "the end".

4. Yes, but the POINT is that his post, which you quoted, was not (as you allege) an elaboration of the line of questioning of the OP, but rather a comment on the SW argument someone had made in the thread. By jumping on that you deny him the right to pursue parallel lines of discussion apart from the OP subject. He may have made SW arguments in other threads but this thread was explicitly limited to HW sales, despite the provocative title.

You can make any allegations you like about this being the apex of "360 fad will die soon" sentiment, but if you are now trying to refer to posts and discussions occurring in other threads then perhaps you ought to quote them instead.

Going back to the "failure of logic" premise of my first post, what I mean is that this: "Many people often fail to realize that whenever a PS2 owner buys an Xbox 360, Sony normally loses a customer and future revenue, whilst Microsoft gains a customer and future revenue." makes no sense with respect to either the PS3 or the 360. It makes perfect sense discussing the PS2 vs. PS3 situation, of which I think we are all well aware, but that has nothing to do with the current gen. That is the mental association I made with the common "sunk costs" mistake. (It is also valid when discussing the financial or overall fortunes of Sony, which is well outside the scope of these discussions.) Half your OP revolves around this irrelevancy.
(Bolded points in order)
1. By "Beyond the present" I meant that my point is proven as long as the Xbox 360 continues to sell to PS2 owners (in decent quantities of course) for a substantial period of time from this point onwards. I think that the insinuation in the original thread was clearly meant to imply that the Xbox 360 (though not "dead") would become something of an irrelevance henceforth, and that it would begin a general decline from now on. I think with continued year-over-year increases, more exclusives, more multiplatforms that were exclusive on the PS2 and another price drop, the Xbox 360 will demonstrate that it is not in a recession and it IS taking PS2 userbase and therefore IS taking Sony customers.

2. I don't think I've denied anyone anything. There are people in this thread discussing HW, SW, profits etc, and I haven't attacked any of them for it. If you meant the other thread, you should be aware that it was locked BEFORE I began this thread, so it wouldn't be within my capacity to futher deny anyone a right of response in that thread either.

3. This thread has, from the beginning, been about both a Microsoft vs Sony comparison AND an Xbox 360 vs the PS3 comparision. However, the latter came about more because it has become impossible to discuss the competitive capabilities of one console without discussing those of the other. Below is the third paragraph of my OP which was meant to sum up my position:
I want to examine GTAIV for a moment, because an understanding of what this game represents is critical to understanding the fact that this week just gone, Sony lost more consumers than it has in any other week since the generation began. Thats right, Sony LOST CONSUMERS! For weeks now, Sony fans have been highlighting the close association GTA has with the Playstation brand, and inadvertedely showing us that this week gone was never Microsoft's to win, it was always Sony's to lose. But Microsoft DID win, and Sony DID lose. Read on.
1. Well, it can sell more year-over-year and still be in decline if the amount the YOY is up by goes steadily down. I frankly don't know if this will prove to be the case and don't want to speculate at this time.

PS2 owners are LAST GEN. Sure, some people still buy it, but those are not the same audience you speak of, I think. The only thing MS is stealing from Sony is SW sales from the PS2 owners playing their 360s instead of continuing to play their PS2s. This obsession with PS2 owners buying 360s is becoming tiresome. Sony's console is not the juggernaut of this gen: we all know it. Therefore the userbase of the dominant PS2 has bled in all directions, including to MS. But that does NOT speak directly to DMeisterJ's thread. It's clear that the 360's trajectory is well above the Xbox's, so clearly it HAD to get that increase largely from the PS2. (Anyone who says "but teh gaemkyoob" is getting slapped.) But the question is how high that trajectory will go -- and whether it is now at or near its apex. Your continual blathering about PS2-userbase-stealing does not speak to this subject at all, at least not with any specificity.

EXACTLY!!!  Whenever a PS2 owner buys an Xbox 360, they stop giving their money to Sony through software and START giving their money to Microsoft through software (not to mention the high likelihood Microsoft is profiting on hardware).  Furthermore, the Xbox 360's trajectory didn't "have" to go higher than the Xbox's, but the fact that it has is evidence of a victory for Microsoft.  My argument is simply that the Xbox 360 HASN't (in any respect) reached the apex (good word btw) that we are talking about.

You know what? I just thought of something: maybe you've spent so long arguing against Sony fanboys that all those PS2 owners were just waiting in the wings, chastely awaiting [INSERT GAME HERE] and coyly avoiding the overtures of the 360 -- you've spent so long being bombarded with "ZOMG they will come eventually!" -- that you've internalized it and see the fact that the 360 is getting some of those fabled masses as a huge victory that means the 360 can't possibly be heading for a downturn. One does not necessarily follow the other.

2. I find your utter failure to comprehend this point very frustrating. He was not elaborating on the line of the questioning in the OP. He was, in fact, commenting on a TANGENT brought up by someone making an argument about software. By speaking in your OP as if that comment was relevant to his OP, you twist his words. I said you "deny" him the right to talk about things not related directly to the OP e.g. SW because you insisted on acting as if everything he said in the thread was necessarily related directly to the OP. The only way he could have avoided this misrepresentation would be not to post those other thoughts at all. Do you understand what I am getting at now? Do you wish to recant that portion of the OP or would you like to defend your reasoning for including that?

See this is the thing, you haven't pointed out an instance where I have defined this thread as pertaining solely to DMeisterJ's OP.  I quite agree that DMeisterJ was responding to what he apparently (I say apparently because he didn't specify that the thread was about HW until AFTER SW came up) saw as a tangent.  But he did respond nonetheless and as such his comments are included in this thread, which is a broad response to his thread as a whole.  I understand what you are getting at, it just seems that your determined to believe that this thread was always solely grounded in a response to DMeisterJ's OP, which it wasn't.

3. Are you now saying that the main argument in the OP was simply that much of the PS2's userbase is going to consoles other than the PS3, and that a substantial amount of that is going to the 360? I think you would be hard-pressed to dredge up more than one or two members here that would disagree with that statement. I think you would even have a hard time finding people to argue that GTAIV does not highlight those facts.

As I said in an earlier post, any conversation about the Xbox 360's competitiveness is inherently going to involve a discussion about the PS3's competitiveness, which this thread only proves.  However as the third paragraph of my OP clearly states, this thread is abotu Sony losing consumers and Microsoft gaining them.  I then went on to clarify that I did indeed mean losing consumers through loses to the PS2 userbase, and gaining them through the Xbox 360 respectively. 

I think the problem we have here is that you think I am saying more with this thread than I actually am.  I was pointing out what is obvious to you and me, but as evidenced by the length of this thread, isn't obvious to many people.  You have simply assumed that I am insinuating something I am not. 

As for your stated topic of this thread, I can see that somewhat in the OP. But in that case, why did you choose to put your argument in the framework of a response to a post that was not only specifically about the 360 but limiting itself to HW sales as well? Surely you understand how people would naturally think that your goal was to discuss the 360, or 360/PS3, instead of Sony and MS generally.

As I said, this thread was never a response to a specific post, but a response to a specific poster's posts in a specific thread.  I also specified that others were involved in purpetuating the same viewpoint.


 



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

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Final-Fan said:
Judging from your exchanges with other posters, I think this is relevant enough to merit reposting outside of our main exchange:

maybe you've spent so long arguing against Sony fanboys saying that all those PS2 owners were just waiting in the wings, chastely awaiting [INSERT GAME HERE] and coyly avoiding the overtures of the 360 -- you've spent so long being bombarded with "ZOMG they will come eventually!" -- that you've internalized it and see the fact that the 360 is getting some of those fabled masses as a huge victory that means the 360 can't possibly be heading for a downturn. One does not necessarily follow the other.


Lol.  Have you studied social theory?  Internalized it huh?

I haven't said (or even implied I don't think) that the xbox 360 is winning anything like a huge victory.  All I have said is that a victory for Microsoft and a loss for Sony occurs each time a PS2 user buys an Xbox 360. 



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

Final-Fan said:
I thought it was 3%/2%. And I also seem to recall that it may have been for this gen, and therefore a very incomplete picture of what the situation may eventually be when the consoles are more mature.

[edit: Squilliam, top of page 2: "Just a point to understand, from what I saw of some research a while ago. 3% of console owners own 2 consoles and 2% of console owners own all 3. So 95% of console owners own just one.

"Edit: Think current gen console owners sorry."]


My mistake.  Though it should be noted that the smaller percentages enhance my point. 



starcraft - Playing Games = FUN, Talking about Games = SERIOUS

I have not studied social theory that much.  Am I using the word wrong?  I hate it when I do that; please correct me if that is the case.  What I mean is that the thinking of your opponents may have gradually infiltrated your own thought process.  It's like picking up the mannerisms of someone you live with, being subconsciously changed even if you would not have willingly done so.

[edit:  or perhaps you're mocking me for hypothesizing about your subconscious mind?  I would remind you in that case that it is in fact a hypothesis and not a statement of fact.]

As for the second paragraph: exactly.



Tag (courtesy of fkusumot): "Please feel free -- nay, I encourage you -- to offer rebuttal."
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My advice to fanboys: Brag about stuff that's true, not about stuff that's false. Predict stuff that's likely, not stuff that's unlikely. You will be happier, and we will be happier.

"Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not his own facts." - Sen. Pat Moynihan
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
The old smileys: ; - ) : - ) : - ( : - P : - D : - # ( c ) ( k ) ( y ) If anyone knows the shortcut for , let me know!
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I have the most epic death scene ever in VGChartz Mafia.  Thanks WordsofWisdom! 

In general, I completely agree with Starcraft. The 360 is FAR from finished - people keep forgetting this IS MS. The only reason the XBOX died, is because they killed it off prematurely to push people to the 360.

MS have been *very* quiet recently, and that means they are up to something. All they have to do is completely fix the RRoD issues, drop the price in the US  (and Australia :P) - and they will have a fantastic rest-of-the-year.

I'm almost certain this generation will end with a "close-to" 50% marketshare each between the 360/PS3 (HD marketshare that is).



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starcraft, your ignoring my post. you have a way of just ignoring away the truth dont you.