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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Sales Comparison Charts May 2024 Discussion Thread

Ahmad's numbers are shipments, but they are numbers that will eventually be sold.

And let's remember that the number of shipments for that Xbox was one-fifth of the PS5. The odd thing is that this ratio is not reflected in the VGC.


Yes, the ratio at VGC was still 4:1 in March, so a decrease at the same ratio would certainly result in the numbers you mention.

So the ratio of shipments is 5:1 and why the ratio of sales is 4:1.

Why do these discrepancies occur?

Last edited by Oneeee-Chan!!! - on 17 June 2024

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I remember at the January VGC the ratio of PS5 to Xbox was just under 3:1.
Would something like 3:1 in sales happen when the ratio of shipments was 5:1? That would never happen. That was corrected later of course.
The same thing should happen to the April estimate.



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

Ahmad's numbers are shipments, but they are numbers that will eventually be sold.

And let's remember that the number of shipments for that Xbox was one-fifth of the PS5. The odd thing is that this ratio is not reflected in the VGC.


Yes, the ratio at VGC was still 4:1 in March, so a decrease at the same ratio would certainly result in the numbers you mention.

So the ratio of shipments is 5:1 and why the ratio of sales is 4:1.

Why do these discrepancies occur?

Ahmad's Xbox figures, like with us, are just estimates based on available data. We don't know exactly how much Xbox shipped in Q1. All we got from Microsoft is Xbox hardware revenue was down by 31% year-over-year. We have Xbox estimates at 1.47M in Q1 2023, which dropped to 1.01M in Q1 2024 (If you subtract the extra week for 2024 due to us following the same weeks as NPD/Circana, which has an extra week in Q1 2024 as their 2024 has 53 weeks in it). That is a 31.3% drop year-over-year.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

I remember at the January VGC the ratio of PS5 to Xbox was just under 3:1.
Would something like 3:1 in sales happen when the ratio of shipments was 5:1? That would never happen. That was corrected later of course.
The same thing should happen to the April estimate.

Adjustments are possible and are always done when more data comes in. We get very little data in places like mainland Asia, the Middle East, and Africa. The data we do get is used to extrapolate the estimates in those places, which is where the majority of adjustments occur.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

So that would mean you don't know exactly either.
I don't understand how that explains anything.

On the other hand, I remember you once used Ahmad's numbers as proof that the Xbox was selling well.
Was this in December 2021?



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Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

So that would mean you don't know exactly either.
I don't understand how that explains anything.

On the other hand, I remember you once used Ahmad's numbers as proof that the Xbox was selling well.
Was this in December 2021?

I never claimed I know exactly and we are always open to the fact our figures are estimates based on available data that is extrapolated. I just put the available data (posted in a previous post) to show why we have PS5 sales down so much in April compared to March. Year-over-year in April the PS5 did the best with sales down 31%, while Xbox Series X|S sales are down 44% and Switch sales down 50%.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

Uh, did you turn away from the fact that you once used Daniel Ahmad as a reliable source?


Then Are you saying that the discrepancy between shipment and sales ratios can be ignored because Daniel Ahmad is now an unreliable source?

And the global figures are probably just an expanded estimate of the UK report with the ratios unchanged.
Why not Japan or Spain?



Yeah, it always seemed to me that VGC's European numbers were always out of touch with Spain.
They seemed far closer to the UK.



Oneeee-Chan!!! said:

Uh, did you turn away from the fact that you once used Daniel Ahmad as a reliable source?


Then Are you saying that the discrepancy between shipment and sales ratios can be ignored because Daniel Ahmad is now an unreliable source?

And the global figures are probably just an expanded estimate of the UK report with the ratios unchanged.
Why not Japan or Spain?

The 5:1 ratio from Daniel Ahmad is based on his estimated shipments, while VGC figures are estimated sell-through. So having a difference in the ratio between shipped and sold doesn't mean one is wrong.

I'm not sure where you got that final point from. Yes, we take the available data to extrapolate sales in other parts of the world. But we use different data depending on where. Ie. NPD/Circana to get US estimates, which is then used alongside historical data to extrapolate to get Canada and Latin America estimates, and the Japan data and historical data is used to extrapolate to get mainland Asia estimates. The available data from the UK and Europe are used to extrapolate the rest of Europe, which isn't covered in the data we are able to get. 

There is a monthly report from GamesIndustry that provides mainland Europe sales figures that covers Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Italy, Portugal, Russia, Spain, Sweden and Switzerland. Plus they release the monthly UK report. So when it comes to Europe the places with little data includes Germany and some smaller countries. 



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

No, in fact, you know yourself that the VGC's January numbers were wrong because they were later corrected.