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Forums - Sales Discussion - JAPAN Consoles Showdown 2024: July 14th

 

Will the PS5 sell more than 2M in 2024?

Yes 8 30.77%
 
No 18 69.23%
 
Total:26

Numbers have been updated with WEEK 12 from Famitsu.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

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Switch is actually putting some impressive numbers and is only 6,516 units behind the DS '10. The DS '10 sold 2.87M that year, which had game releases like Pokémon HeartGold & Pokémon SoulSilver (Mar 14th), Prince of Persia: The Forgotten Sands (May 18), Lego Harry Potter Year 1-4 (Jun 29), Pokémon Black & Pokémon White (Sept 18), and Pokémon Ranger: Guardian Signs (Oct 4). It was a solid year for the DS. Two mainline Pokémon games in the same year is a big uphill battle and the Switch treated the opening week of HGSS with a +1,908 units in favor of the Switch followed by the next week with +15,275 units for Switch. Just impressive. 
Personally, I don't think that Switch will be able to compete against the holiday month sales of 100k per week, but I do see the Switch staying at a baseline throughout the 1st half of the year being 55k on average. The DS '10 averaged 45.7k from Jan-Jun. The Switch should be ahead of the DS '10 at the end of Jun by 241.8k (the total would be 1.45M sold for Switch by Jun 30, 2024), which should be a good platform to sell either the same as DS '10 or more by the end of the year. And will most likely sell above 2.5M.

PS5 is having a rough start to the year. And should have a baseline average from Jan-Jun of about 35k. PSP '10 averaged 40.9k Jan to Jun. The PS5 could be behind by 153.4k (the total would be 936.94k sold for PS5 by Jun 30, 2024), which would be a great comeback given that its behind by 212.8k right now. And will most likely sell near 2.5M

Xbox Series is holding on well to the sales of the Xbox 360 '11. It should be averaging near 1.3k from Jan to Jun. Xbox 360 '11 averaged 1.9k. Xbox Series should only be behind by 15.6k by end of Jun (the total would be 48.1k for Xbox Series by Jun 30, 2024). It'll most likely surpass the 100k sold in Dec but that will be a tough battle.

Anyone have more prediction ideas?
@XtremeBG keep it up we love your work.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:

Xbox Series is holding on well to the sales of the Xbox 360 '11. It should be averaging near 1.3k from Jan to Jun. Xbox 360 '11 averaged 1.9k. Xbox Series should only be behind by 15.6k by end of Jun (the total would be 48.1k for Xbox Series by Jun 30, 2024). It'll most likely surpass the 100k sold in Dec but that will be a tough battle.

Given XBSX history in Japan, I think these sales now (little bit lower than usual) are just a moment ones, and given how in the last 3 years the XBOX has had often weeks of 5-10-15k I expect it to have those weeks again this year. Therefore I expect XBSX to pass 100k, and even maybe 200k in the end. So I don't expect this difference and the lead in general of XB360'11 to continue for much longer.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 28 March 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Numbers and charts have been updated with WEEK 13 from Famitsu.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Numbers have been updated with WEEK 14 from Famitsu.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 25 April 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Around the Network

Numbers have been updated with WEEK 15 from Famitsu. They also have been adjusted with the japan numbers up until end of march from VGChartz.

The comparison's tables were slightly changed to include new column about the week and the month. This is mostly because it's way more easier for me to adjust and even change (when needed) comparisons and data that way instead of the old one. (it was changed for all of my other sales threads as well). The week and the month is now only included in that first column.

The PS5 comparison table, was changed to PS4 numbers instead of the PSP ones, because the sales performance of the PS5 lately is representing more closely the PS4, not the PSP. If this level of 20-30k weekly continues, PS5 will end up around PS4 numbers for the year.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 25 April 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Numbers have been updated with WEEK 16 from Famitsu.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

The Switch is staying strong above my baseline prediction of 55k sold average from Jan-Jun. It right now sits at 58,077 on average sold per week. If this continues the Switch will have sold around 1.51M by Jun 30, 2024.

PS5 is sitting on the baseline prediction of 35k from Jan-Jun, and is selling 35,120 units on average sold per week.
If this continues the PS5 will have sold 913k by Jun 30, 2024.

The Xbox Series has been actually excelling past my baseline prediction of 1.3k sold from Jan-Jun. It's selling an average of 2,283 units per week.
If this continues the Xbox Series will have sold 59k by Jun 30, 2024.

Let's Go Switch! Year 8 is Great!



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Numbers and charts have been updated with WEEK 17 & 18 from Famitsu.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Numbers and have been updated with WEEK 19 from Famitsu and have been adjusted with the VGChartz data up to WEEK18.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart