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Forums - Sales Discussion - JAPAN Consoles Showdown 2024: July 14th

 

Will the PS5 sell more than 2M in 2024?

Yes 8 30.77%
 
No 18 69.23%
 
Total:26

Interesting how Japan still has console sales despite freemium games being more popular over there.



BiON!@ 

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XtremeBG said:
Shtinamin_ said:


Also I think the head to head graphs are a bit Playstation biased but that is fun. Competition is fun. I might be a bit Nintendo bias with my prediction but I have faith in Nintendo (and rather logical stats to back it up).
Let's go Switch! Give it your best!

There is no bias here. The comparisons are made from what is the natural way of continuing the sales from 2023 according to every console life and performance to date. Again if it fails I can and will change it's comparison accordingly.

Ok, and sorry for my lack of communication. When I meant bias I was referring to comparing sales of PS5 and Switch, given the comparison of Switch to NDS'10 & '17, and the comparison of PS5 to PSP'08 & '10. Since the DS years was lower than 2.9M and the PSP was higher than 2.9M, this let me know that PS5 was expected to beat the PSP years, and the Switch was going to have a hard time beating the NDS years. (This is before the update). This was me thinking about if the PSP '08 was the lower limit and the NDS '10 was the upper limit.

And there is nothing wrong with with the VS you set up, I was just saying that given the VS the PS5 was given the more competitive comparisons. Which theres nothing wrong with that. Im still excited for the year. Your work is exceptional and honestly things can go in any direction. We dont know. And like you said you can just change the VS if things sell better or worse. You know what you are doing. :)



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:

Im very excited. Here are my predictions:

Switch will sell more than PS5.

  • Switch 3.5M
  • PS5 3.3M

Switch beats NDS'10 & 3DS'17

PS5 does not beat PSP'08 but does beat PSP'10

XBOX Series does not beat XBOX 360'08 but does beat XBOX 360'11

  • XBOX Series 170k

I need to make an adjustment to PS5 VS predictions.

PS5 does beat PSP'06 & PSP'07



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:

Ok, and sorry for my lack of communication. When I meant bias I was referring to comparing sales of PS5 and Switch, given the comparison of Switch to NDS'10 & '17, and the comparison of PS5 to PSP'08 & '10. Since the DS years was lower than 2.9M and the PSP was higher than 2.9M, this let me know that PS5 was expected to beat the PSP years, and the Switch was going to have a hard time beating the NDS years. (This is before the update). This was me thinking about if the PSP '08 was the lower limit and the NDS '10 was the upper limit.

And there is nothing wrong with with the VS you set up, I was just saying that given the VS the PS5 was given the more competitive comparisons. Which theres nothing wrong with that. Im still excited for the year. Your work is exceptional and honestly things can go in any direction. We dont know. And like you said you can just change the VS if things sell better or worse. You know what you are doing. :)

Ooh, now I see where you are coming from.

Well the truth is, for me there is a real chance this year PS5 to sell more than NSW, and yes, that is because I made the comparisons with nintendo lower numbers and sony higher. The PS5 vs NSW is just to show how much the difference will be. But of course as you said, it can go either way, and as I said before Japan is the most unpredictable market. I know Nintendo are very strong there and Sony are mostly weak. However with the recent NSW decline there, and possibly new console from them in late 2024, and with the good rise of the PS5 last year, I can see the very likely scenario of PS5 doing around 3M and NSW 2M. That is the reason the original comparisons were in the way they were. I changed the PS5 ones, since really 4M is a lot of strech. But with a 3M top and 1.8M floor, it should sit nicely somewhere between them.

There is no bias here. Last year I did Switch comparison with 3M in the beginning and later moved to 4M with the comparison to the DS. The PS5 then was compared to the PS4 2M. Everything is according to the sales momentum and perfomarnce of the previous years and also the expectations at the point in life of the given system.

Last edited by XtremeBG - on 08 January 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

XtremeBG said:
Shtinamin_ said:

Ok, and sorry for my lack of communication. When I meant bias I was referring to comparing sales of PS5 and Switch, given the comparison of Switch to NDS'10 & '17, and the comparison of PS5 to PSP'08 & '10. Since the DS years was lower than 2.9M and the PSP was higher than 2.9M, this let me know that PS5 was expected to beat the PSP years, and the Switch was going to have a hard time beating the NDS years. (This is before the update). This was me thinking about if the PSP '08 was the lower limit and the NDS '10 was the upper limit.

And there is nothing wrong with with the VS you set up, I was just saying that given the VS the PS5 was given the more competitive comparisons. Which theres nothing wrong with that. Im still excited for the year. Your work is exceptional and honestly things can go in any direction. We dont know. And like you said you can just change the VS if things sell better or worse. You know what you are doing. :)

Ooh, now I see where you are coming from.

Well the truth is, for me there is a real chance this year PS5 to sell more than NSW, and yes, that is because I made the comparisons with nintendo lower numbers and sony higher. The PS5 vs NSW is just to show how much the difference will be. But of course as you said, it can go either way, and as I said before Japan is the most unpredictable market. I know Nintendo are very strong there and Sony are mostly weak. However with the recent NSW decline there, and possibly new console from them in late 2024, and with the good rise of the PS5 last year, I can see the very likely scenario of PS5 doing around 3M and NSW 2M. That is the reason the original comparisons were in the way they were. I changed the PS5 ones, since really 4M is a lot of stretch. But with a 3M top and 1.8M floor, it should sit nicely somewhere between them.

That makes sense, and the logic you put to it is very sound. I personally just think Nintendo will continue to sell well in Japan compared to US and Europe, but I'm a positive and optimistic person so I could very much be wrong lol.
Keep it up!



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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Last change for the time being I promise.

The three comparisons in question, the stronger and the weaker competitor were with almost the same sales for the first half of the year on the charts and I figure out I can slightly change them and give you the same final result for low and high target for the systems however with bigger difference in sales even in that first half too. (in other words - perfect it)

So here are the final changes:

  • Nintendo Switch vs NDS'10 (2.9M) vs Wii'10 (1.7M)
  • PlayStation 5 vs PS4'16 (2M) vs PSP'10 (2.9M)
  • XBOX Series vs XB360'11 (115K) vs XB360'07 (260K)
Last edited by XtremeBG - on 14 January 2024

My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

I imagine when the ps5 pro launches will boost the overall sales for a bit in Japan/worldwide but also, when it launches I can see Sony lowering the price of the ps5 slim models, likely to something like 300 which will entice more people to buy the system when it's a "deal" to get

AHH clever Sony, make the system more expensive to get now, then get all the sales when you lower it later



Switch is already needed to put in the work compared to the DS ‘10. Switch is behind by >6k units

It’s just the beginning of the year and that first week usually is the best selling week of the year.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Numbers have been updated with WEEK 1 from Famitsu.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart

Numbers have been updated with WEEK 2 from Famitsu.



My sales comparison threads:

Ultimate Showdowns: JP 2023 / JP 2024 / 2024 / 2023 / 20222021

Lifetime Showdown / Historical Showdown / YOY Charts / 140M+ Club Chart