I was leaning towards next week. It comes down to if the CMA won't be mad if Microsoft closes the deal everywhere except in the UK while they work out a deal, and what happens with the 9th circuit of appeals decision with the FTC appeal. I'm now 50/50 on it closing early next week. If not it will probably close once the CMA and Microsoft work out a deal in the next month or so.

OP...You may be right.

So it comes down to the UK. 

No, I'm like 50/50-ish. 

Either things will be done soon, or things will last forever. That's been how this has been going for me.

So as of 11:59 PM PST today, Microsoft can officially close in America.

The FTC's Appeal against Judge Corley's verdict still remains but...

A. Extremely unlikely they'll win that.

B. Irrelevant as to whether Microsoft can close or not, Microsoft CAN close in America now after today.

The only hurdle that remains is the CMA...If the CMA has given Microsoft permission to close and lifted the worldwide ban then this deal could be closed by Monday in everywhere aside from the UK but either way will be closed whenever Microsoft is done talking with the CMA (which CMA says will be August 29th at the latest), or Microsoft can close over the CMA and face the consequences.

If MS closes in North America, does that mean Acti-Blizzard games can start popping up on Game Pass as soon as MS wants in markets aside from the UK?

If the deal closes, MS can do whatever they want.

I'm planning to pick up Diablo 4 soon. But if the deal closes in the next couple of days, maybe I'll wait until it makes its way to game pass. 

Based on the FTC failing their recent appeal, it could happen then or soon after.

Yeah. I feel better about this prediction now than I did when I made it.  I think there's about a 70% chance that this deal closes by Tuesday. 

I'm gonna check back on Tuesday anyway.