Skylanders also. Cloud would be impossible to use figures and the figures aren't made anymore so would be weird to rerelease it.

Thought the image was legit for a minute. Was hyped there'd be a pc version of CTR.

Someone could make a proper list 👀

It'll be 80% CoD I think, Lol.

If any of you have a large enough room with cash to burn.

Little bit extra added to his post from yesterday.

Just wait for Klob.

Lot of sierra games could pop up(and yes please) activision owns them.

The odds have definitively changed:

Microsoft (MSFT)-Activision (ATVI) Spread Hits Lowest Since Merger Announced - Bloomberg

Activision rallied 5.9% on Friday to $84.39, the highest since August 12, 2021. The surge came after the UK Competition and Markets Authority narrowed the scope of their merger probe, putting the stock around 11% below Microsoft's $95-per-share offer. The gap was 23% when British regulators voiced opposition to the tie up back in February.

The market is currently pricing in roughly 50% odds of the deal being completed, assuming a $75 standalone value in Activision if the deal does not go through, according to Cowen's Aaron Glick. This compares to about 30% odds a month ago, but at the time, market was pricing a $65 standalone value, he said.

"This seems to be a major pivot" from the UK's CMA, which is now saying Microsoft has no incentive to withhold Call of Duty from competitors, said Frederic Boucher, a risk arbitrage analyst at Susquehanna International Group.

This approval is the main regulatory roadblock, he added. However, the pivot "does not mean that the approval is a done deal," Boucher noted, since it still has an issue related to cloud gaming.

On the other hand, if there was any doubt that the CMA already knew about the PS5 version of Redfall, the addendum to the PF includes this (page 12):

We remain of the view that console providers, including Microsoft, place significant value in having exclusive content to differentiate their platform and attract more users. Most first-party Xbox and PlayStation games are exclusive to their respective platform, and almost every studio that Microsoft has bought now makes games exclusive to Xbox. Moreover, where Microsoft has seen value in making multiplatform third-party studio games exclusive to Xbox, it has done so (eg, the upcoming release in the Redfall franchise following the Bethesda acquisition).

So, as we said the CMA already knew about it and the statement from Arkane this week changed nothing.

This bit about partial foreclosure is also very interesting, because if the deal goes through and MS is in the mood, I think that this is legally opening the door to exclusive content, perks or availability (only on Game Pass, for example) for COD (page 13):

We have not seen any robust evidence to suggest that PlayStation users would switch from PlayStation to Xbox at the same rate in response to partial and total foreclosure strategies. We consider that it is unlikely that they would do so, since under a partial foreclosure strategy CoD would still be available on PlayStation (albeit not at the same time, or not with the same exact content). Given that any deterioration in PlayStation's offering would be more modest under a partial foreclosure strategy, we would expect that only a fraction of gamers would switch to Xbox. On this basis, we have provisionally concluded that Microsoft would not have the ability to foreclose PlayStation on the basis of partial foreclosure strategies.

I don't think that it will happen in the short - medium term because MS has said multiple times in public and private that they want full parity. But right now the reality is that the EC and CMA doesn't care about that anymore (from a legal point of view).

Regarding COD on Game Pass, if the deal goes through it's important to remember that MS is limited in that regard and that Sony will have access to COD until the end of 2024, no matter what:

Microsoft has publicly stated that it plans to "launch Activision Blizzard games into Game Pass". Microsoft's intention is that future Activision releases, including Call of Duty, will be made available on Game Pass on the day of release, similar to Microsoft's first-party content. This is subject to existing contractual obligations with Activision, which will be honoured (REDACTED).

So, if Sony wants to let the dust settle a bit and avoid negotiating the new deal until the start of 2024, I think that could be an option for them.

Source: Idas + Questions.

The saddest part of them tweets is that the unnamed console market competitor refers to buying a game as a legacy monetization model....

I've a lot of questions about their downplay of Minecraft as well, I've no doubt CoD has more in some metrics but to act like Minecraft is nowhere near when it has over 140m MAU and as of recently was selling 20m per year, I need to see the receipts. Once again, Minecraft Bedrock Edition is not the same thing as Minecraft Xbox One/PS4 edition either which wasn't the same thing as Xbox 360/PS3 edition.

Oh and Minecraft does have a very active Minecraft Store which enables users to purchase content using Minecoins so it's a bit of a grey area in regards to this "Legacy Monetisation Model" descriptor and the constantly released paid Skin Packs and the subscription to Minecraft Realms. Minecraft monetises just as much as a lot of recent GaaS.

If this is Sony though then it sounds like they would have no issue if Microsoft pulled Minecraft off PlayStation.

Idas not giving percentages anymore but he sounds much more positive. Hoeg this afternoon also sounded pretty optimistic about the deal’s chances as well.


I think MS is going to wait for the CMA and EU. If both approve it’s on to a full court press against the FTC. I think it’s still possible this deal closes by the final July deadline but it is going to be very tight

And even if it does close, it sounds like it will be another year and a half before COD titles appear on gamepass because of the marketing deal Sony has with ABK still being in effect