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You’re Transported to Fallout’s World, Would You Rather?

Live in a Vault (Random Selection) 17 77.27%
 
Live on the Surface 5 22.73%
 
Total:22
zero129 said:
Ryuu96 said:

I do wonder if Xbox will always have these issues as long as they're tied to Microsoft store, it may need a complete overhaul, I've long said that MS store should in the future be developed as a gaming first storefront rather than app first, I think they'll honestly make more money from games than apps since I don't imagine people use MS store all that much aside from downloading Office, Lol.

But we've also heard that the Windows team is protective over the store so who knows if that'll ever happen. Also, Xbox 360 emulation built into the store would be nice and yeah, it definitely seems they're missing far too many AAA multiplatform releases.

That's the conflict I suppose, Game Pass on Steam means there's no point in improving Windows Store but I also think Microsoft is going to miss a lot of internal Game Pass targets in the future because Game Pass on console has limited potential, the ceiling will be far smaller than PC and it's currently held back by supply issues, while PC is held back by people just not wanting to use Windows Store, Lol.

gtotheunit91 said:

Also, releasing good, major AAA games wouldn’t hurt

Yeah, though, something like Starfield won't do much because Bethesda's PC fanbase love their mods so they'll rather get it on Steam I would assume.

Bold - Yeah, it's like that on Xbox too, I don't like it either, it's ugly and wastes space.

Nothing is happening on the 7th, Lol. Microsoft said to the CMA that they're currently placed 7th on PC in terms of storefronts so their market share is tiny, they also seem to be implying that PC Game Pass is a tiny fraction too.

Xbox app now allows modding on PC. You can install the game to any folder you want now and access the files without having to do all them shitty steps needed a few months back. I used mods on valheim so 100% mods can be used now.

Oh kick ass! I remember them adding mod support, but it was limited to specific games. That’s a big step in the right direction! I’ll have to start using it there now. 



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gtotheunit91 said:
zero129 said:

Xbox app now allows modding on PC. You can install the game to any folder you want now and access the files without having to do all them shitty steps needed a few months back. I used mods on valheim so 100% mods can be used now.

Oh kick ass! I remember them adding mod support, but it was limited to specific games. That’s a big step in the right direction! I’ll have to start using it there now. 

Yep as someone who loves to tinker and mod their pc files i was happy out when i seen they now allow you to do this.



Wells Fargo upgraded analyst Brian Fitzgerald moved his rating on Activision to overweight from equal weight and kept the $95 price target, noting that even though the antitrust landscape across the globe remains "uncertain," the stock does not reflect the company's potential.

"We believe the market is likely undervaluing the company due to: a failure to consider the impact of a $3B breakup fee; an under-appreciation of the company's prospects as a standalone video game publisher, and quite possibly; a miscalculation of the deal's chances at getting through antitrust," Fitzgerald wrote in a note to clients.

Fitzgerald added that if the deal does not close, Activision is set to receive a $3B breakup fee and even at a conservative 13.5 multiple to consensus 2023 EBIT estimates, the stock is worth $76 per share.

"From our conversations with event-driven and M&A arb traders, we believe most are using $64-72 as a breakup price, at which the current price of ATVI ($73.47) implies a 6-31% chance that the deal closes," the analyst added.

Fitzgerald also pointed out Activision's "record-breaking" Call of Duty launch, which generated $1B in sell-through in the first 10 days, as well as strong engagement in Overwatch 2 and continued strength in its mobile division.

Truist analyst Matthew Thornton also upgraded Activision, moving his rating to buy from hold, noting that even without the $69B deal from Microsoft, the company has improved its fundamentals, as well as the fact it could have between $12B and $13B in net cash that could be used for buybacks or other purposes, such as deals.

"Activision should have a big 2023 with [Call of Duty] in a very healthy place (record recent MW2 launch, plus recent Warzone 2.0, plus upcoming Warzone Mobile in 2023), with [World of Warcraft] in a healthy place (recent Classic content, upcoming Dragonflight expansion), with dormant Overwatch and Diablo franchises being stood-up again (with Overwatch 2, including PvE in 2023, and Diablo IV in 2023), with Blizzard mobile in a healthy place (Diablo Immortal plus Warcraft Arclight Rumble, we assume in late 2023, and we believe more in the pipeline beyond 2023), and King continuing to be solid/consistent," Thornton wrote in a note to clients.

Activision Rises as Multiple Analysts Upgrade, Citing Favorable Risk-Reward (NASDAQ:ATVI) | Seeking Alpha

Analysts are now saying that even if the acquisition fails, ABK is a great investment, and pointing out that ABK will receive $3bn from MS if it fails, Lol. This one from Wells Fargo in particular doesn't seem convinced that the deal will pass. I'm fairly confident if delayed past July 23 and if ABK continues to be healthy, Microsoft will have to pay a lot more than $68bn.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 28 November 2022

Ryuu96 said:
Machiavellian said:

I totally disagree, I actually believe from what I am hearing that this deal will definitely go through and that it will go through without any real problems for MS.  Way to much concentration on things that this deal really doesn't matter to MS which they can easily provide concessions for.  If anything I believe MS is happy about the current discourse going on because I believe it plays right into their strengths and what they will have to give up will be not of importance to what they want from this deal.

Eh...FTC may sue to block and while Microsoft can beat them easily in court, it's the CMA who is the problem here, if CMA blocks the deal, then Microsoft has to appeal to CAT who ultimately throw the decision back to CMA who can then just block the deal again, the CMA has very little legal oversight and very rarely loses.

By comparison to the FTC, who don't actually approve anything, they just let it pass, nor do they actually block anything, they get the courts to block deals, the CMA doesn't do either of those things, it's CMA who approves or blocks things without any court oversight, that's at least my understanding from what I've read.

So, we need to be careful that if FTC sues to block it doesn't encourage CMA to block because if it does then the deal is likely dead.

I think it's still more likely to go through than not, but I doubt Microsoft wanted to make concessions this extreme, a 10-year guarantee to a competitor is an extreme concession, Hoeg spoke on this that he thinks it's the absolute maximum that Microsoft is willing to offer and they're doing so in the hope that they get the issue out of the way.

Plus, if FTC does sue to block, which is a strong possibility regardless of the reasoning as they've sued to block a lot of deals lately and are very eager to look like they're cracking down on big tech, it would very likely mean that Microsoft has to renegotiate the acquisition with ABK as the court case will likely delay the closure date beyond July 2023.

If a renegotiation does happen, it means that the acquisition has to be redone, if ABK still desires to be acquired, and that will almost certainly lead to ABK asking for an even higher sale price than $68bn and Microsoft used that cash when interest was at shit levels so who knows how much higher than $68bn they're willing to go now that interest is back at decent levels.

There could be two angles at play from the FTC here even if their arguments don't make any sense.

  1. Sue to block and hope that CMA also blocks, effectively killing the deal.
  2. Sue to block and hope it delays things long enough that it extends beyond the July closure date, causing either Microsoft or ABK to back out of the deal.

Either option would make FTC look like they won against big tech even if they didn't technically win in a court of law, Lol. I'm at about 60% that the deal passes, it will likely still pass, but Microsoft definitely didn't expect this level of scrutiny from regulators, hence why Brad Smith is openly complaining a little too.

However! FTC could just be formulating a complaint/lawsuit to ask for concessions as that is the usual process, that would still make them look like they had a win against big tech, they can frame it as them strong arming Microsoft into concessions, this is more about politics lately than actual legally sound market arguments.

If FTC is only asking for concessions, then they'll pass as I doubt CMA will solo Microsoft.

I believe MS will clear the CMA because at the end of the day, what the CMA is looking at is something MS can easily provide whatever concessions they want.  This is why I do not believe the CMA poses any real problem for MS.  Its way to concerned about COD which is something MS can easily provide them with whatever concessions they want towards that IP.  It really does not matter for MS because COD will be like Minecraft and it will just continue to print money.

The FTC really have nothing that they can really block this deal over.  There is nothing that ABK gives MS that upsets the game market and if COD is still the thing they throw on the pile, those are just easy concessions MS is more than willing to make.

From the moves I have seen MS make, they are 100% on GP.  They do not care about the Console war, they are not concerned about the PC space like the regulators believe.  GP just do not have enough users to say their is a monopoly so the regulators cannot really concentrate on that service.  ABK property outside of COD have plenti of competition.  Most of Sony arguments can be contested based on Sony own tactics and huge marketshare.  MS is really looking pretty strong if you ask me and it would definitely need to be some very underhanded stuff to go on to stop this purchase.  Not saying that it cannot happen but from what I see so far, things look like smooth sailing.

I would not be surprised that MS did not sandbag getting their games out this year because they can show weakness.  Think about if MS had a Steller year with big IP dropping on time, their case would be harder to represent.  Coming short on GP subs is a win.  Coming up short on game sells is a win, I am telling you MS has been playing this game and basically leading the results into their favor every since they went for this deal.



Machiavellian said:
Ryuu96 said:

-Snip-

I believe MS will clear the CMA because at the end of the day, what the CMA is looking at is something MS can easily provide whatever concessions they want.  This is why I do not believe the CMA poses any real problem for MS.  Its way to concerned about COD which is something MS can easily provide them with whatever concessions they want towards that IP.  It really does not matter for MS because COD will be like Minecraft and it will just continue to print money.

The FTC really have nothing that they can really block this deal over.  There is nothing that ABK gives MS that upsets the game market and if COD is still the thing they throw on the pile, those are just easy concessions MS is more than willing to make.

From the moves I have seen MS make, they are 100% on GP.  They do not care about the Console war, they are not concerned about the PC space like the regulators believe.  GP just do not have enough users to say their is a monopoly so the regulators cannot really concentrate on that service.  ABK property outside of COD have plenti of competition.  Most of Sony arguments can be contested based on Sony own tactics and huge marketshare.  MS is really looking pretty strong if you ask me and it would definitely need to be some very underhanded stuff to go on to stop this purchase.  Not saying that it cannot happen but from what I see so far, things look like smooth sailing.

I would not be surprised that MS did not sandbag getting their games out this year because they can show weakness.  Think about if MS had a Steller year with big IP dropping on time, their case would be harder to represent.  Coming short on GP subs is a win.  Coming up short on game sells is a win, I am telling you MS has been playing this game and basically leading the results into their favor every since they went for this deal.

CMA is a wildcard, on the one hand, their Phase 1 arguments were absolutely crazy, on the other, the Phase 2 team is completely different from the Phase 1 team but that also means we know nothing about the Phase 2 team and how they're thinking. Then you add on that CMA has very little legal oversight, very rarely loses cases and since UK has left EU, CMA has blocked quite a lot of deals, plus regulators, particularly in the West, are desperate for a win against big tech.

Their "issues" seem easily dealt with via concessions but if they don't think the concessions are good enough then they'll just block the deal. Hard to say which way they are leaning; I don't know how "political" CMA is feeling lately.

FTC definitely has nothing they can block the deal over, and they'd lose in courts, but they've been losing a lot lately, doesn't stop them from trying, Lol. At minimum is seems that FTC is going to ask for concessions (that's fine, then the deal will pass easily) but if it's a sue to block then I suspect their goal is what I said above, either hope CMA blocks or hope it delays the deal long enough to cause a renegotiate.

The latter is a risk, Activision-Blizzard clearly wants to sell, so they'd have to hope Microsoft doesn't want to pay over $68bn, which if a renegotiation happens, Activision will ask for a lot more than $68bn, plus, Microsoft is having to put any other acquisitions on hold for a long time which isn't ideal.

It's not going the way Microsoft wanted it to, but it's not doom and gloom, yet. I'd still put the deal at more likely than not at passing.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 28 November 2022

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If the FTC sue, I am 100% sure they are playing right into MS hands and it will have the effect of passing this deal through the CMA. The reason is because MS will crush it going to court and use that as a means to crush any opposition from any other country. Unless the FTC has a smoking gun, it will allow MS to put us such a defense, it will be hard to argue against it. I feel all this has been calculated and MS is more than happy to plead their case in court. A win in court just solidifies your stance and the deal.



Ryuu96 said:

Hopefully not Hellblade 2 for the 3rd time even though it’s one of my most anticipated games from 1st party, imo Starfield will likely be there and maybe Redfall with both having release dates if they are still on schedule for the 1st half of 2023.

Unless they surprise us with a GCI/In Engine teaser for any of the unannounced projects that they have it’s down to either Contraband or Avowed.



Decided to change course and do Dragon Age: Origins first (the 5hrs I've put in DA2 I'll get back by not needing to do a second playthrough due to importing a DA:O save). Will be the first time I've ever gone for a full 1750GS in this game. Looks like my December is fully stacked now.



Ride The Chariot || Games Complete ‘24 Edition

Ryuu96 said:

Jez trying to get word out there that Xbox may not be at TGA for regulatory reasons but I don’t buy it. Starfield, Redfall, Ara: History Untold, and Avowed are my biggest hopes. 

If Hellblade 2 is there, it has to be with a release date!