Great thread.
Unless we see a sudden "cliff" even if Switch is tracking behind of DS I do see it passing it, but even if the difference is small I don't think it will manage the extra mile to pass PS2.

On this chart it make it seems like Switch would have an easy case of passing PS2, but it will hardly keep selling for the same timeframe and nice level (PS2 late life was surprising).

I really hope ps5 doesn’t end up passing ps2 unless things get way way better for the exclusives. Sony has just been coasting this gen with some anti-consumer PS3ish era choices as well and getting rewarded massively for it.

I agree, however hoping console is not successful, or beat another console is not good. They are not getting rewarded exactly, just the direct competition isn't there and they get almost all of the customers .. However PS2 is very hard to get, many have tried, many have fallen (the most recent example is Switch, and yes it is still selling however losing steam in your 130Ms when hoping to reach 160M isn't exactly good sign .. DS losed steam after it's 140Ms and still didn't reach PS2). But let's get to PS4 lifetime first, then if the PS5 have stamina left we will worry about PS2.. Well before that are the Switch and DS, but you get the point.

Yeah it’s proven to be an extremely hard mark to pass, but what makes me think PS5 is on track to do it is that Covid likely prolonged this era 2-3 years from what Sony initially planned. So a possible 2027 launch for PS6 that would have followed their console release pattern I think has now become either a 2029 or 2030 release. This decade long life cycle or so could definitely push PS5 over at the rate it’s going.

I just truly hope Sony starts putting way more effort in again well before that and PS5 ends up a console worthy of the presence of the likes of PS2, DS, Switch etc