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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch Sales Top 110M, PS5 Tops 21M - Global Hardware July 3-9

Shatts said:
Agente42 said:

You just assumed this.

Yes, but read through this thread. We are talking about the timing for the next-gen Nintendo console. 

The_Liquid_Laser said:

I agree.  Also, Nintendo's profits from the past two fiscal years are around twice what they were during the Wii/DS period's best years.  They really should be in no hurry to replace the Switch.  Whenever a new system releases there is a lot of uncertainty about how profitable it can be.  Meanwhile, they currently have their most profitable system ever.  I don't think they are going to replace it until it looks like profits (and software sales) have seriously declined from the current high.  Because of that I'd agree that 2025 looks like the most likely year for a successor.

Liquid Laser was talking about the most profitable system. It's bizarre that we don't assume we are talking about operating profit. Net profit has more to do than gaming, such as investment, debt, expenses, taxes, etc. For example, Nintendo could be investing something in the peak of Wii/DS era and earned positive cash flow recently. There could have been major outside negative cash flow in the Wii/DS era and such. Does that make sense? 


You were also talking about operating profit in the first place. The explanation for the "twice" doesn't even make sense either so you could have just apologized for your mistake or at least put up an excuse. At least Liguid_Laser could make the claim that he was looking at net profit. Btw u can't bcuz u were clearly talking about operating profit. 

You're splitting hairs.  The point is that Nintendo is doing far better than their best Wii/DS years.  Therefore they won't be replacing Switch any time soon.



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@Shatts When I mentioned 8-8.5 years, I meant in terms of the length of time between Switch's release and Switch successor's release. I fully expect the Switch itself to still be produced after the successor releases. Probably until around 2027 or 2028 depending on if the successor is backwards compatible and successful. I imagine evergreen titles would still be sold long after 2028 as well.

For what it's worth, all of those similar named successors sold less for specific reasons which could potentially be avoided this time.

SNES: Increased competition from SEGA (as well as Nintendo themselves with Game Boy, honestly). It doesn't look like we will get any new major players in the market in the coming years.

GBA: Legs cut short (likely due to competition from PSP).

3DS: Name, price, launch lineup and competition from mobile.

Wii U: Name, marketing, price, lineup and having trouble juggling two systems (3DS & Wii U).



I think the Switch will be Nintendo's only console until 2025. The fact that it's still selling so well and there's still Metroid Prime 4 out there somewhere being made for it (as well as the inevitable Odyssey 2). It will be the best selling system of all time at the end of its lifespan. All signs are pointing to this being the case. The evergreens are still selling well, it hasn't received a price reduction, and it's still making them tons of money.

All that aside, I don't really care about Nintendo as a game company, I just want to hear cool guys like Chris Pratt voice Mario until I'm 70.



SuperJortendo said:

I think the Switch will be Nintendo's only console until 2025. The fact that it's still selling so well and there's still Metroid Prime 4 out there somewhere being made for it (as well as the inevitable Odyssey 2). It will be the best selling system of all time at the end of its lifespan. All signs are pointing to this being the case. The evergreens are still selling well, it hasn't received a price reduction, and it's still making them tons of money.

All that aside, I don't really care about Nintendo as a game company, I just want to hear cool guys like Chris Pratt voice Mario until I'm 70.

This gen, for me, will be Switch and Pc ( Steam Deck).



A successor in 2024/2025 would suit my personal tastes just fine. I'm having way too much fun with my Switch these days to want it to end any time soon.

It feels great actually to have a Nintendo console still getting tons of support in Year 6, instead of being taken out behind the shed after 5 years of so.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

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curl-6 said:

A successor in 2024/2025 would suit my personal tastes just fine. I'm having way too much fun with my Switch these days to want it to end any time soon.

It feels great actually to have a Nintendo console still getting tons of support in Year 6, instead of being taken out behind the shed after 5 years of so.

Now, it kind of would be great if they tried to use a bit more of their B/C IP's for next remainder of those two years. 

A good opportunity to build a good legacy content once Switch finally gets replaced for newer hardware



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