From that article
So Switch 2 in 2024 confirmed and Switch 1 best selling video game console of all times confirmed?
Ignoring what I assume to be sarcastic questions, the maths of Ampere is just bad.
Switch had sold through ~102m by the end of 2021 and 2022 can be expected to achieve at least 21m, resulting in an LTD of ~123m by the end of 2022. From there we have to distribute a total of 23m across 2023 and 2024.
If we applied consistent yearly drops, we would be looking at ~15m in 2023 and ~8m in 2024. Such a drop in momentum doesn't make it feasible to end up with 158m+ lifetime.
If we used a less severe drop for 2023 and had, say ~17m, we would then get only ~6m in 2024. That would be even worse momentum than in the example above.
Going in the other direction of granting 2023 only ~13m and then 2024 ~10m would allow 2024 to end on a high enough level to possibly leg it out to 158m+ lifetime, but we'd then have to ask why 2023 would have such a sharp drop and how 2024 could slow down the severe decline by so much.
Any way you look at it, it just doesn't work out to a realistic sales curve.