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Forums - Sales Discussion - April NPD 2022 Thread - NS #1, Xbox Series X|S #2, PS5 #3

I didn't start doing VGChartz estimates until 2017. But here are the US estimates we have:

  • DS: 52.78M
  • X360: 45.14M
  • Wii: 41.70M
  • NS: 35.56M

We don't have a breakdown of US sales before the 7th generation, so for PS2 and GBA the best we got is the North America total on this page. https://www.vgchartz.com/analysis/platform_totals/Hardware/NA/

I see @Welfare on InstallBase posted the following figures:

  • NDS: ~53.5M
  • PS2: ~46.4M
  • 360: ~43.2M
  • WII: ~41.7M

If his data is accurate it looks like I need to adjust our US estimates for the DS and Xbox 360. Worldwide totals should remain the same as before, so would need to adjust in the other direction for other regions.



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RolStoppable said:
Farsala said:

So we know approximate lifetime sales for the Switch then?

I mean, VGC has constantly adjusted their USA figures to be more in line with NPD whenever it was needed and the information existed. VGC has the PS4 at ~35m and that shouldn't be far off from official NPD figures (that nobody here has access to). So Switch has passed the 35m mark in the USA.

I think in the thread about the gap charts, VGC had Switch passing the PS4 in the USA in March, so one month earlier. This means the LTD figures for the PS4 and Switch are slightly off on VGC, but it's not a dramatic difference.

So when it comes to Nintendo shipments US would be about 36m shipped, accounting for 85% of The Americas total. It seems too high if we think Nintendo's The Americas is more than Canada and the US.

Afaik, Mexico and Brazil are significant countries when it comes to shipments, and the rest of the Americas certainly add up too.



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Farsala said:
RolStoppable said:

I mean, VGC has constantly adjusted their USA figures to be more in line with NPD whenever it was needed and the information existed. VGC has the PS4 at ~35m and that shouldn't be far off from official NPD figures (that nobody here has access to). So Switch has passed the 35m mark in the USA.

I think in the thread about the gap charts, VGC had Switch passing the PS4 in the USA in March, so one month earlier. This means the LTD figures for the PS4 and Switch are slightly off on VGC, but it's not a dramatic difference.

So when it comes to Nintendo shipments US would be about 36m shipped, accounting for 85% of The Americas total. It seems too high if we think Nintendo's The Americas is more than Canada and the US.

Afaik, Mexico and Brazil are significant countries when it comes to shipments, and the rest of the Americas certainly add up too.

Afaik Nintendo has almost zero presence in Brazil.



Farsala said:
RolStoppable said:

I mean, VGC has constantly adjusted their USA figures to be more in line with NPD whenever it was needed and the information existed. VGC has the PS4 at ~35m and that shouldn't be far off from official NPD figures (that nobody here has access to). So Switch has passed the 35m mark in the USA.

I think in the thread about the gap charts, VGC had Switch passing the PS4 in the USA in March, so one month earlier. This means the LTD figures for the PS4 and Switch are slightly off on VGC, but it's not a dramatic difference.

So when it comes to Nintendo shipments US would be about 36m shipped, accounting for 85% of The Americas total. It seems too high if we think Nintendo's The Americas is more than Canada and the US.

Afaik, Mexico and Brazil are significant countries when it comes to shipments, and the rest of the Americas certainly add up too.

I'd put US shipments at about 35.5m, because sell-through passed 35m only one month later. The market size of Canada is roughly 10 percent of the USA, so that would be another ~3.5m. That leaves ~3m for Mexico and everything south of it.

Brazil has tax laws where consoles that aren't manufactured in Brazil will be heavily taxed, to the point that the black market with its imported consoles from the USA is able to offer much cheaper prices. Since Nintendo doesn't produce consoles in Brazil, the vast majority of the consoles in use there can be assumed to be US imports. This is why a ~85% share for the USA alone isn't too farfetched. Other South American countries don't tax as much as Brazil, but imported consoles from the USA aren't unusual either.



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RolStoppable said:
Farsala said:

So when it comes to Nintendo shipments US would be about 36m shipped, accounting for 85% of The Americas total. It seems too high if we think Nintendo's The Americas is more than Canada and the US.

Afaik, Mexico and Brazil are significant countries when it comes to shipments, and the rest of the Americas certainly add up too.

I'd put US shipments at about 35.5m, because sell-through passed 35m only one month later. The market size of Canada is roughly 10 percent of the USA, so that would be another ~3.5m. That leaves ~3m for Mexico and everything south of it.

Brazil has tax laws where consoles that aren't manufactured in Brazil will be heavily taxed, to the point that the black market with its imported consoles from the USA is able to offer much cheaper prices. Since Nintendo doesn't produce consoles in Brazil, the vast majority of the consoles in use there can be assumed to be US imports. This is why a ~85% share for the USA alone isn't too farfetched. Other South American countries don't tax as much as Brazil, but imported consoles from the USA aren't unusual either.

I think if the shipment to sales gap is ~2-3m, then the US would comprise of around 33-50% of that due to the size of the country (longer shipping time) as well as the volume.

The Brazil situation is similar for all consoles.

Official price for NSW is 2,999 real.

Compare that with the PS5 4,699 real. (Originally announced as 4,999 real) Which is practically the same difference as for USD.

I think Brazil and Mexico are still significant markets.

But I suppose it is clear that a big portion of US sales are not being used in the US.