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Forums - Sales Discussion - VGChartz Sales Comparison Charts March 2022 Discussion Thread

curl-6 said:
trunkswd said:

PS5 has been falling behind the PS4 due to the shortages. I wouldn't be too surprised if shortages don't improve the PS5 doesn't retake the lead over the Switch this holiday.

I was thinking more long term, as I expect the chip shortage will still be raging this holiday. Like, when we reach year 4, when the Switch went into hyperdrive, will the PS5's supply have improved enough by then (end of next year/2024) that it can avoid being left in the dust as PS4 was.

I am not expecting the PS5 to sell as well as the PS4. Even if there weren't shortages. All due to much stronger competition from Microsoft. By the time shortages are over or at least much improved Xbox will be firing on all cylinders with its first-party lineup.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.

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The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

PS5 is severely supply constrained at the moment though, I'm talking about what will happen once they can make and ship far more consoles instead of being constantly sold out due to the chip shortage.

The chip shortage is going to have to end in the next 3-4 months in order for the PS5 to catch up to the Switch again.  Even then, once Switch hits its next holiday, that is going to be it for the PS5.  It's too far behind, and Switch sales just get bigger and bigger from the next holiday onward.

I'm not ready to count out the PS5 just yet; the pent up demand for it is enormous and once supply improves sufficiently it could get a second wind in life like the Switch did in 2020.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023. (And over 130 million lifetime)

curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

The chip shortage is going to have to end in the next 3-4 months in order for the PS5 to catch up to the Switch again.  Even then, once Switch hits its next holiday, that is going to be it for the PS5.  It's too far behind, and Switch sales just get bigger and bigger from the next holiday onward.

I'm not ready to count out the PS5 just yet; the pent up demand for it is enormous and once supply improves sufficiently it could get a second wind in life like the Switch did in 2020.

Well, obviously we still have our bet.  And it's clear that the two of us have radically different views on the outcome of the PS5.



@The_Liquid_Laser only you bet on the PS5'22 that will be as less as possible (the weaker bet option was 10-15M for the year) when almost everyone said more than 15M.
So credits for this. You just might get it right. Even though PS3'08 year wasn't strong (10.4M) by this point in time PS5 is around 600k behind .. which is very bad .. It is questionable if even 10M will be reachable for it this year, although I believe it can hit 10 and even 12M because I think shortages will be way less going further in the year and especially the fall.



yo33331 said:

@The_Liquid_Laser only you bet on the PS5'22 that will be as less as possible (the weaker bet option was 10-15M for the year) when almost everyone said more than 15M.
So credits for this. You just might get it right. Even though PS3'08 year wasn't strong (10.4M) by this point in time PS5 is around 600k behind .. which is very bad .. It is questionable if even 10M will be reachable for it this year, although I believe it can hit 10 and even 12M because I think shortages will be way less going further in the year and especially the fall.

Thanks.  

There is no telling how long the shortage will last.  It could be a couple of more months or it could last all year.  That alone will have a large impact on just how much the PS5 sells this year.  However, even when the shortage ends, I don't expect PS5 sales to greatly rocket upward.  We'll see.



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The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

I'm not ready to count out the PS5 just yet; the pent up demand for it is enormous and once supply improves sufficiently it could get a second wind in life like the Switch did in 2020.

Well, obviously we still have our bet.  And it's clear that the two of us have radically different views on the outcome of the PS5.

Do you think you can still win that bet?



Norion said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

Well, obviously we still have our bet.  And it's clear that the two of us have radically different views on the outcome of the PS5.

Do you think you can still win that bet?

Ask me after Dec 31, 2022.  So, far things are going pretty well for me though.

Last edited by The_Liquid_Laser - on 02 May 2022

curl-6 said:

PS5 and Switch forming the same double helix pattern and Switch and PS4 followed for the first three years or so, based on their different release times relative to the holiday period.
Will be interesting to see whether Switch breaks away in year 4 as did versus the PS4, or whether improved supply allows PS5 to better keep pace.

You should look at a PS4 vs. Switch graph. That would make it evident that it's not the same pattern.

And with Intel's CEO now expecting the semiconductor shortages to last into 2024, the PS5 will be capped at an annual pace of ~15m, unless Sony is willing to pay more money per unit for their parts. So even if the PS5 somehow experienced a Switch-like surge later in its life, it's not going to catch up anymore, let alone pass the Switch line again.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

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The_Liquid_Laser said:
Norion said:

Do you think you can still win that bet?

Ask me after Dec 31, 2022.  So, far things are going pretty well for me though.

If you're saying you think it's in your favour currently I'm genuinely perplexed by that though you are right it would be best to wait till then before going into depth on it so we can do that then sure.



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Nintendo Switch Outsells Lifetime PS4 Sales in the US

This monthly series compares the aligned US sales of the Nintendo Switch and the PlayStation 4.

The PS4 launched in the US on November 15, 2013, while the Switch launched on March 3, 2017. Therefore, the holiday periods for the two consoles do not lineup, which is why there are big increases and decreases.

Switch Vs. PS4 US:

Gap change in latest month: 961,412 - PS4

Gap change over last 12 months: 1,932,217 - Switch

Total Lead: 8,124,403 - Switch

Switch Total Sales: 35,622,126

PS4 Total Sales: 27,497,723

March 2022 is the 61st month that the Nintendo Switch has been available for. During the latest month, the gap in the US grew in favor of the PS4 when you align launches by 961,412 units.

In the last 12 months, the Switch has grown its lead by 1.93 million units. The Switch currently leads by 8.12 million units.

The 61st month on sale for the Switch is March 2022, while for the PS4 it is November 2018. The Switch has sold 35.62 million units, while the PS4 sold 27.50 million units during the same timeframe.

The Nintendo Switch has now outsold lifetime sales of the PS4 in the US. The Switch with its 35.62 million units sold in the US is ahead of the 35.25 million units the PS4 has sold in its lifetime. With PS4 sales quickly dropping off, the Switch will only continue to grow its lead over the latest PS4 sales.



VGChartz Sales Analyst and Writer - William D'Angelo - I stream on Twitch and have my own YouTubeFollow me on Twitter @TrunksWD.

Writer of the Sales Comparison | Weekly Hardware Breakdown Top 10 | Weekly Sales Analysis | Marketshare Features, as well as daily news on the Video Game Industry.