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Forums - Sales Discussion - February NPD 2022 Thread

jason1637 said:
kazuyamishima said:

I'm shocked there's no Sony is doomed thread yet (aside of the Patcher one).

Cause the PS5 isn't doomed. Its not even selling that poorly and the shortage is limiting it even further. 

I agree. Shortages are the only reason PS5 sales are as low as they are. PS5 would 100% be ahead of the PS4 if there were zero shortages.



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People will just start buying Xbox series at this point and move on from waiting for a PS5. They must be having a really bad mood at playstations headquarters right now yikes. At a time where they launch Horizon, one of their flagship for the year but they can't even really capitalize on it to sell hardware and ER which would have literally been a system seller as well. A damn shame but also, Microsoft's chance to really turn things around this gen. Their acquisitions will start to show in 2-3 years so if they are close to PS5 numbers, at that point they will also be equals in terms of games output.

Anywayz, Switch is killing it.



Without any real sales numbers, these threads feel far less meaningful now. I've always hated simple rankings because they don't give any context. "X beat Y!" Yeah, by how much? If you tell me the Braves beat the Yankees, that's good and all, but what was the final score? 1-0? 14-3? 10-8? 5-2? We have no clue how well either of them did in absolute terms, only that one had more runs than the other.

Revenue figures do gives us some clue how they all did collectively. HW revenue dropped from $406M to $295M, an over 27% drop. It was also a significant drop from January ($390M), almost unheard of for a February because of the boost from tax season. The per-console average spending across all three platforms looks to stay somewhere in the $370-390 range based on 2021 sales figures, which would give us ~756k-797k units sold. Last year the total was somewhere around 1,100,000 units, with estimates of about 620k for the Switch and upwards of 475k combined for the PS5 & XBS, with the PS5 taking nearly two-thirds of that total. Combined with the rankings for February (Switch>XBS>PS5), it stands to reason that the Switch and PS5 both declined significantly. The XBS may or may not have declined significantly, but given the likely large gap in their ARP due to a higher share of XBS sales coming from the cheaper SKU, if the XBS beat the PS5 in dollar sales as well, then it probably beat the PS5 numerically by an even larger gap. Since the Switch was #1 in revenue, it had to have grossed at minimum about $95-100M, which being the least expensive system would give is a significant numerical unit lead. A totally conjectural sales outcome like this could be possible:

Switch: $120M (400k @ $300/unit)
XBS: $100M (250k @ $400/unit)
PS5: $72M (150k @ $480/unit)

You could screw around with the numbers to get other plausible outcomes so long as both revenue and unit sales are NSW>XBS>PS5. But there's a lot of wiggle room. We could have say, 400k for the Switch, 225k for the XBS, and 170k for the PS5. Or 500k for the Switch and only 185k for the XBS and 145k for the PS5. The margins of error are significant, but there are plenty of outcomes that can be ruled out as well given the revenue total and the rankings.

The PS5 is still #1 in revenue for Jan.+Feb. combined, which may allow us to place some sort of upper limit on Switch sales; assuming an APR of $480 for the PS5 and $300 for the Switch, the Switch likely cannot have sold more than 60% more units than the PS5 YTD, so if the PS5 did 150k this month and the Switch sold 400k, then January sales definitely favored the PS5 significantly. We know the following rankings are also true:

January unit sales and revenue: PS5>XBS>NSW (revenue total: $390M)
Jan.+Feb. unit sales: NSW>XBS>PS5 (Switch is #1 and Piscatella stated on Twitter than the XBS is #2)
Jan.+Feb. revenue: PS5>NSW (XBS unknown)

So, if the Switch sold 200k in January and 400k in February, that's 600k total for a revenue total of $180M assuming an ARP of $300. If this is true, this means that for the PS5 to still be #1 in revenue, then assuming an APR of $480 it needs to have sold at least 375k units YTD. Assuming only 150k sales in February, that means January would have seen it sell 175k. But the revenue total for January was $390M, so for the PS5 to be #1 that month it would need to have represented at minimum just over a third of all revenue that month to get the smallest possible plurality. That means it would have needed to sell about $130M or more worth of units (giving a few million $ for other platforms beyond the main three), which would put its unit sales at minimum around 270k. It had to be a lot higher than that given that the XBS was #2 in both unit sales and revenue, and since the XBS almost certainly has a significantly lower ARP than the PS5, that means it generates more units per dollar. Sticking with an ARP of $480 for the PS5 and $400 for the XBS, that means that to beat the XBS in units its revenue would need to be at over 20% higher. And we still need to have both of them sell enough units and make enough money to push the Switch into third place for January. To beat the Switch in units the XBS would need to sell 33% more units than the Switch. And we need to get everything to total out to nearly $390M.

Taking this all into account, January could have possibly looked something like this:

PS5: $199M (415k @ $480/unit)
XBS: $110M (275k @ $400/unit)
NSW: $75M (250k @ $300/unit)
Total: $384M

This is roughly a best-case scenario for the Switch just for January alone, keeping its unit sales in a not-too distant third. If my initial scenario for February is true, that would give us the following unit sales for Jan.+Feb.:

NSW: 650k
PS5: 590k
XBS: 525k

But that's not quite accurate since the unit ranking for the year indicates the XBS is in second place. There are some significant margins of error, and assumptions regarding ARP may be wrong. While it seems fairly certain than the disc edition is the vast majority of PS5 sales and the overall balance of Switch SKUs indicate that the $300 ARP is pretty close, the actual split between the Series S & Series X is the biggest unknown. If the Series S is 75% of XBS sales instead of only about half, then the XBS ARP is only $350.

So assuming an ARP of $350 for the XBS but assuming the same revenue figures for January would give us:

PS5: $199M (415k @ $480/unit)
XBS: $110M (315k @ $350/unit)
NSW: $75M (250k @ $300/unit)

And for February would give us:

Switch: $120M (400k @ $300/unit)
XBS: $100M (285k @ $350/unit)
PS5: $72M (150k @ $480/unit)

For a YTD unit total of:

NSW: 650k
XBS: 600k
PS5: 590k

And a YTD revenue total of:

PS5: $319M
XBS: $210M
NSW: $195M

This fits with the known rankings for the year, which definitely indicates the Series S is by far the best-selling XBS SKU. If we knew where the XBS stood in the revenue rankings, it might help us narrow things down even more. But the rankings and revenue totals at best give us rough upper and lower limits for each system, with the ARP of each system being the variable causing the highest margin of error.

This went on for longer than I had hoped and was mostly a stream-of-consciousness bit of writing and I didn't feel like going back and editing anything at the moment. I woke up earlier than normal and couldn't get back to sleep, but now I'm about to pass out. And really, I hate that I have to do all this math just to get at a rough guess for unit sales. Hopefully we'll start getting actual numbers leaked by someone at some point.



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This is indeed the worst possible situation for Sony. They could have had a clear lead by now with sufficient stock and then keep riding that wave. But considering shortages are likely to continue for a long time, Microsoft will have the time to finally let their acquisitions pay off and Xbox exclusives should start dropping hard and fast relatively soon.



Could Russia-Ukraine be impacting supply? I imagine many component minerals are mined in Russia.



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Even with the big releases and shortages problem for most of the manufacturers. It's just a sign we're simply back to pre-covid times type of sales. Though, to confirm my saying we would need next year's report ...

+ It shall not be forgotten that Pokémon Arceus had another great month following an incredible launch at the of January. Right now standing at 2nd in YoY numbers, without digital sales counted. Despite the 9th Gen announcement, there's a strong possibility, the title we'll remain amongst the best seller for a good while.



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Im really impressed by Series X/S sales. Its really impressive, such a great comeback.
I just wonder how figures would be if there was absolutely NO shortage whatsoever.
Anyway, great job from Microsoft.



Looks like several people are surprised by PS5's performance this month. Personally, this is what I expect. Switch > X|S > PS5. That is a normal month for this year. I think January was the upset. Switch had shipment issues continuing into January, while Sony sent more supply to North America. I was really surprised by January's results. February feels normal to me, especially in light of chip shortages.



EnricoPallazzo said:

Im really impressed by Series X/S sales. Its really impressive, such a great comeback.
I just wonder how figures would be if there was absolutely NO shortage whatsoever.
Anyway, great job from Microsoft.

Wonder how many people who cant find the Series X opted for the Series S. MS would probably have more hardware revenue without shortages but I don't know if sales would be much more tbh.



jason1637 said:
EnricoPallazzo said:

Im really impressed by Series X/S sales. Its really impressive, such a great comeback.
I just wonder how figures would be if there was absolutely NO shortage whatsoever.
Anyway, great job from Microsoft.

Wonder how many people who cant find the Series X opted for the Series S. MS would probably have more hardware revenue without shortages but I don't know if sales would be much more tbh.

Yes, good point. DO we have any idea what is the ratio of sales between Series X and Series S?

I am a lucky guy and got both Series X and PS5 and I can tell you that my PS5 is almost collecting dust. I almost regret buying it. And I was on SOny camp for the past 4 generations. Microsoft is doing great and the fact that Sony is considering improving it's subscription service is a proof that competition is always great.