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Forums - Sony Discussion - How much Sony will loss from Activision?

SvennoJ said:

Crazy thought, next gen there is only one console, the XStation, a collaboration between MS and Sony.

Sony gets the platform royalties, MS handles the subscriptions including gamepass and psn/xbl put together. The hardware is almost the same anyway nowadays, why still have separate boxes. Cross-play is always asked for. Both are releasing games on PC already. Sony already uses Azure, MS would like gamepass to be on Sony TVs as well. It has worked before with MSX.

Sony does the hardware, MS the network infrastructure. Both compete on software. Developers only have to optimize for one platform, no money lost of platform exclusive bonuses etc. Too good to ever become true!

I actually don't want that =p



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

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twintail said:
yvanjean said:

Even if the game is not exclusive the simple fact that most of the future Activision's games will come day and date on Game pass will result in massive loss of software sales on Sony consoles.  

Microsoft did not make these acquisitions to boost their sales on Sony consoles. I'm not sure where you guys are getting this pointless argument that Microsoft would care about profit from selling to Sony since that profit would be 5X greater if they can take a customer away from Sony. They lost the last generation and are trying to grow their userbase to match or surpass Sony this generation.  

When it comes down to it people work where they live and for the most compensation. 

You are clearly misinformed when it comes to Sony's current position in this generation. The last generation Sony outsold Microsoft consoles 2 to 1. But, this generation Sony lead has shrunk quite a bit and this 68 billion dollar acquisition is trying to make sure that the gap between the two is even smaller. 

The real impact here is not how much Sony loses on royalties from selling Activision games but rather how much consoles sales will they lose by not having Activision's games. 

How do you figure Sony is losing a lot of software sales from a game releasing day 1 on GP? Has that happened with any 3rd party release so far? Did that happen with Sony's own MLB release? I'm curious where figures show that Sony is losing out big time here, because nothing I can tell so far suggests this is the case at all.

And no one is suggesting that Activision is making these plays to keep pumping out games on PS5. The Bethesda deal clearly shows, to most people, that MS will keep the vast majority of what they release exclusive.

And yes, there are myriad reasons why someone might choose to work at one place over another. Nothing suggests that staff are going to stick around with an MS owned company either. I highly doubt there is any data to suggest what employees will do because their choices are based on many things. Talent moves. That's the reality of the industry.

Amphere Analysis has shown the PS5 outselling XSX in all 3 quarters that they have been out. Last numbers had them at 12.8m (PS5) to 6.7m (XSX). Their 2022 outlook has them surmising that the PS5 outsells at 2:1 (18M:9M). Suggesting that Sony's lead has 'shrunk quite a bit' is disingenuous to say the least.

I also don't think that hardware sales are the key factor here for Sony. Sure, they're bound to lose on all fronts, but hardware is not their major revenue driver: it's digital software. And this acquisition stands to hit their digital software revenue, as Vanguard appeared in the top 10 selling PSN games for both PS4/ PS5 in both US and EU (Black ops appeared in 3 of those 4 items). As an MP heavy game, this will also effect their subscription revenue (which at times is greater than that of hardware). 

Of course, it's far too early to tell what affect this is going to have on Sony. This year might see some interesting trends with their quarterly updates for their 2022 financials. That should start to give us some evidence of how they'll be affected.

We have more reason to believe Ampere’s analysis is inaccurate than accurate. They were almost certainly wrong about 2021. Their projections for PlayStation in 2022 are based on a poorly supported assumption that supply chain issues are going to improve drastically over the next 6 months. 

if we look at VGChartz numbers, which if you are not im not even sure why you are here, Xbox has improved its market share relative to Sony considerably in the 9th generation. I see no reason to think that won’t continue, and the continued mantra from largely Sony communities that the PS5 is destinies to outsell the Xbox series consoles 2:1 comes off as desperate wishful thinking more than a grounded analysis 



VideoGameAccountant said:

Its not just about the royalties Sony loses (although those will be a lot). It's that Call fo Duty was one of the main reasons PS4 sold as well as it did. Between 2017 and 2020, the most downloaded game every year was the newest Call of Duty game. This was even more than Marvel's Spider Man and God of War in 2018 (they were actually number 3 and 4 respectively). Despite what many people claim here, Sony's first party games are not the main driver of hardware sales. It's mostly third party titles, including Call of Duty, GTA and FIFA. Sony can't draw people to their systems in the same way Nintendo has been able to do. Beyond just Call of Duty, it hurts shooters in general, since most people will get an XBox for FPSs now, since CoD will be the home of XBox. The truth is this is a catastrophic hit that could jeopardize the PS5. Sony has been relying on third parties to push the hardware, and often has made exclusivity deals to keep games of competitors consoles. Now, Micorsoft can just buy up the publishers, which makes it harder for Sony to compete, and their first party line-up isn't up to snuff to keep the system going. Combined with the chip shortage and poor software sales, the Playstation could be in serious trouble.

I simply don't agree, this purchase just don't make sense to me. Looks like Microsoft has no plans to pull Cod: Warzone and Cod: Warzone2 will be released on PS5. This will be enough cod for the PS5 system.

The annual sales of boxed Cod has fallen hard from that timeline you're describing. Warzone is the big thing now, that's why unless Microsoft pulls Warzone I just don't see this effecting the console war much at all. Microsoft needs to pull Warzone from Playstation for this purchase to make sense.



6x master league achiever in starcraft2

Beaten Sigrun on God of war mode

Beaten DOOM ultra-nightmare with NO endless ammo-rune, 2x super shotgun and no decoys on ps4 pro.

1-0 against Grubby in Wc3 frozen throne ladder!!

DonFerrari said:
SvennoJ said:

Crazy thought, next gen there is only one console, the XStation, a collaboration between MS and Sony.

Sony gets the platform royalties, MS handles the subscriptions including gamepass and psn/xbl put together. The hardware is almost the same anyway nowadays, why still have separate boxes. Cross-play is always asked for. Both are releasing games on PC already. Sony already uses Azure, MS would like gamepass to be on Sony TVs as well. It has worked before with MSX.

Sony does the hardware, MS the network infrastructure. Both compete on software. Developers only have to optimize for one platform, no money lost of platform exclusive bonuses etc. Too good to ever become true!

I actually don't want that =p

Why not? I don't see any downsides, well maybe that would open the door to price fixing :/



aTokenYeti said:
twintail said:

How do you figure Sony is losing a lot of software sales from a game releasing day 1 on GP? Has that happened with any 3rd party release so far? Did that happen with Sony's own MLB release? I'm curious where figures show that Sony is losing out big time here, because nothing I can tell so far suggests this is the case at all.

And no one is suggesting that Activision is making these plays to keep pumping out games on PS5. The Bethesda deal clearly shows, to most people, that MS will keep the vast majority of what they release exclusive.

And yes, there are myriad reasons why someone might choose to work at one place over another. Nothing suggests that staff are going to stick around with an MS owned company either. I highly doubt there is any data to suggest what employees will do because their choices are based on many things. Talent moves. That's the reality of the industry.

Amphere Analysis has shown the PS5 outselling XSX in all 3 quarters that they have been out. Last numbers had them at 12.8m (PS5) to 6.7m (XSX). Their 2022 outlook has them surmising that the PS5 outsells at 2:1 (18M:9M). Suggesting that Sony's lead has 'shrunk quite a bit' is disingenuous to say the least.

I also don't think that hardware sales are the key factor here for Sony. Sure, they're bound to lose on all fronts, but hardware is not their major revenue driver: it's digital software. And this acquisition stands to hit their digital software revenue, as Vanguard appeared in the top 10 selling PSN games for both PS4/ PS5 in both US and EU (Black ops appeared in 3 of those 4 items). As an MP heavy game, this will also effect their subscription revenue (which at times is greater than that of hardware). 

Of course, it's far too early to tell what affect this is going to have on Sony. This year might see some interesting trends with their quarterly updates for their 2022 financials. That should start to give us some evidence of how they'll be affected.

We have more reason to believe Ampere’s analysis is inaccurate than accurate. They were almost certainly wrong about 2021. Their projections for PlayStation in 2022 are based on a poorly supported assumption that supply chain issues are going to improve drastically over the next 6 months. 

if we look at VGChartz numbers, which if you are not im not even sure why you are here, Xbox has improved its market share relative to Sony considerably in the 9th generation. I see no reason to think that won’t continue, and the continued mantra from largely Sony communities that the PS5 is destinies to outsell the Xbox series consoles 2:1 comes off as desperate wishful thinking more than a grounded analysis 

Their data lines up fairly close with Sony's own numbers. But to put these numbers into context, Sony uses shipment numbers while Ampere uses sell-in to customers. So Ampere's numbers should look lower. 

Now, for 2021, Sony posted the following totals per quarter: 3.3M (->Mar), 2.3M (->Jun), 3.3M (->Sept). Total: 13.4M

Ampere's estimates for the same time periods: 2.83M (Mar), 2.15M (Jun), 3.24M (Sept). Total: 12.8M.

This suggests that their data is fairly accurate. Additionally, Chris Ding, who is trusted when it comes to hardware and software numbers, tweeted Ampere's data. Additionally, Ampere had Nintendo at 89.7M by the end of Sept, with Nintendo themselves stating they had passed 90M as of Oct 2021.

Now all of this suggests to me that Ampere's estimates are far more accurate then you have said. And of course future projections are based on very specific conditions. This is how future predictions/ plans work in general: you may be going to a concert next weekend, but I reckon you won't be if you discover a tsunami is going to hit the area on the same day. The point is, ultimately, that they project the PS5 to remain the better selling device in 2022. It happens, or it doesn't. We'll find out.

Likewise, VGChartz numbers haven't been regarded as accurate in the industry for like a very long time. They might be good enough for sweeping generalizations, but nothing more. And no, I didn't join this forum because of their numbers game: it's literally the part of the site I interact with the least. 

Now, if you are able to provide better sourced, and more accurate, info, be my guess.  



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SvennoJ said:
DonFerrari said:

I actually don't want that =p

Why not? I don't see any downsides, well maybe that would open the door to price fixing :/

Lack of competition brings stagnation and loss of value to customer.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."

DonFerrari said:
SvennoJ said:

Why not? I don't see any downsides, well maybe that would open the door to price fixing :/

Lack of competition brings stagnation and loss of value to customer.

I would encourage competition on software instead of gating software to different platforms.

PC is plenty competitive!

But yeah, the hardware might become overpriced like iPhones.



SvennoJ said:
DonFerrari said:

Lack of competition brings stagnation and loss of value to customer.

I would encourage competition on software instead of gating software to different platforms.

PC is plenty competitive!

But yeah, the hardware might become overpriced like iPhones.

Exactly the thing. Even when PS2 was dominating we still had Xbox and GC, so Sony tried their best HW for PS3 even if the price was very wrong. With certainty of being the only HW they would either cut on the muscles or the loss of initial release. Even if the systems are similar and the supplier for APU are very much close to monopoly it still have room for fight.



duduspace11 "Well, since we are estimating costs, Pokemon Red/Blue did cost Nintendo about $50m to make back in 1996"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=8808363

Mr Puggsly: "Hehe, I said good profit. You said big profit. Frankly, not losing money is what I meant by good. Don't get hung up on semantics"

http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/post.php?id=9008994

Azzanation: "PS5 wouldn't sold out at launch without scalpers."