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Forums - Sales Discussion - Ultimate Console Showdown: 2022 - June 18th / 9th gen vs 7th gen /

 

With it's current pace what are your predictions for PS4 this year

500k - 600k 1 20.00%
 
600k - 700k 3 60.00%
 
700k - 800k 0 0%
 
800k + 0 0%
 
Total:4
yo33331 said:

I agree. Last year the comparison had to be vs 2017 switch, and this year vs it's 2018. However who would think that the problem with shortages will be so big that holiday season for the system would be what 2 normal months with normal stock would have been ... Because of that last year PS5 instead of doing 15 or 16M (close to 2018 switch) it did just 13M (what switch did in 2017). This year I could again do 2018 comparison but it would be repeat comparison of the last year and it may annoyed some people. Anyway there is a chance for PS5 to make close numbers to 19M, since the stock issue have to be resolved by large extend by the end of the year.

You do have a point, that sales were notably limited due to lack of stock. However, even with the stock issues figured out I think people are overestimating it's sales numbers. Currently, the console sells out quite a bit due to the limited stock phenomenon (where people will buy something that they may have waited for because the stock is currently limited). Not saying the demand is "artificial" or anything like that. It's definitely there, and sales would absolutely be higher without stock issues. However, a 19M+ year for it's second full year on the market is a VERY lofty goal for any console. 2019 is technically Switch's third year on the market, which is partially why it hit that goal (among just having a stellar year software wise and, of course, Pokemon). Sony is looking to have a great year software wise as well, but unlike Switch all three of it's best sellers will be on another console which people own (PS4). In addition, it took Sony until 2017 to have a 19M+ year for the PS4 when it's competitor practically shot themselves in the foot. It would be difficult for the PS5 to do that in half the time when it's competitor is doing substantially better image wise this generation. 

Anything can happen, and if Sony sells 19M+ consoles in 2022 then that is freaking awesome. I just don't believe they will or that they would even if the stock were figured out. Just my two cents. 



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My bets:
PlayStation 5 vs Nintendo Switch'19 (19.2M):
Winner: Switch 2019.
PS5 stock issues.

PlayStation 4 vs PlayStation 3'16 (670k):
Winner: PS3 2016.
PS4 in Japan sold 70 until now, even without PS5 stock issues.

Xbox One vs Xbox 360'16 (390k):
Winner: Xbox One,
still good machine for gamepass, or even cloud

Xbox Series vs Xbox 360'08 (11.1M):
Winner: Xbox Series
Series S sells when the others dont have stock

Nintendo Switch vs Nintendo DS'10 (20.5M):
Winner: Tie.
I expect Switch to sell around 20.5



Changes have been made to the thread. These:

  • PlayStation 5 vs Nintendo Switch'19 (19.2M)
  • Xbox One vs Xbox 360'16 (390k)

have been changed to:

  • PlayStation 5 vs Nintendo Switch'18 (16.3M)
  • Xbox One vs Xbox 360'17 (60k)

Since the shortage problems of PS5 will probably cut it short from 19M for the year, I put the 2018 year of Switch for comparison (and updated the 2021 thread with 2017 year numbers since it was more inline with 2021 performance of PS5) If further in the year PS5 is showing strong signs that can do 19M for the year I can always switch it back to 2019 comparison if needed.

And since XB1 is doing 2k weekly and it is officially discontinued it will probably not reach 100K for the year, therefore I made the change to compare it to the 2017 year for the 360.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 31 January 2022

Updated numbers with WEEK 3!



Updated numbers with WEEK 4!

Slight adjustments have been made!

Last edited by yo33331 - on 07 February 2022

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Updated numbers with WEEK 5!

Adjustments have been made!



Updated numbers with WEEK 6!



Updated numbers with WEEK 7!



Updated numbers with WEEK 8!



Updated numbers with WEEK 9!