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Forums - Sales Discussion - Switch OLED Boosts Switch Sales to Over 860,000 - Global Hardware Oct 2 to 9

I think it'll be roughly 5% down.
It'll be close.



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It will grow, there are new markets where they are just entering in the past 12 months or the Switch it's getting more penetration & momentum - "Other" will once again be the fastest growing region for Nintendo so they can afford to be flat in other places while seeing growth. No way with the line-up it has and OLED its down in the final Quarter of the year unless supply chain problems hit them hard.



Alby_da_Wolf said:

I expected between 500k and 700k, NS OLED launch largely exceeded my prediction.
Its launch didn't harm Sony and MS, PS5 and XS actually enjoyed a small boost instead, probably benefitting from increased inflow in stores and Sony and MS shipping all they could to use the opportunity (disturbing the competitor's big week could be ruled out before even trying due to both NS market little overlapping with theirs and not enough component supplies, so might as well gather what they could and avoid daydreaming and doing useless additional efforts).

Curl (I think it was) posted a link to a poll earlier about expectations, and it showed that it equaled or exceeded the expectations of 80% of people.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

The_Liquid_Laser said:
zorg1000 said:

Yeah 25-26 million is what I'm thinking, or down about 10% YoY.

How do you expect it to be down 10% for the full year when it is only down 7.5% right now?  Switch had nothing special going for it from Oct - Dec in 2020.  This year has OLED and Pokemon.  All indicators say, even if Switch is down in 2021, it will be less than a 7.5% drop.  In fact, it is more likely to be up YoY in 2021.

Do you have a way to calculate how severe the chip shortage will be?  That's the only thing that could make Switch be down, and even then it would have to be pretty severe for everyone (not just Nintendo).

That's just it though, last year they weren't facing a chip crunch. Also this year's holiday lineup, while definitely stronger than 2020, still isn't as strong as it could be, with Pokemon being a remake, SMT being niche, Mario Party being a collection of old boards and games, and both being franchises already represented on Switch.

All that's not to say they won't have a great holiday, they certainly will. I just can't see it quite managing to close the gap with 2020. Still, just getting close to one the best years of any system ever is still mighty impressive, especially for a system in its 5th year.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

The_Liquid_Laser said:
zorg1000 said:

Yeah 25-26 million is what I'm thinking, or down about 10% YoY.

How do you expect it to be down 10% for the full year when it is only down 7.5% right now?  Switch had nothing special going for it from Oct - Dec in 2020.  This year has OLED and Pokemon.  All indicators say, even if Switch is down in 2021, it will be less than a 7.5% drop.  In fact, it is more likely to be up YoY in 2021.

Do you have a way to calculate how severe the chip shortage will be?  That's the only thing that could make Switch be down, and even then it would have to be pretty severe for everyone (not just Nintendo).

The fact that 2020 was able to sell close to 12 million in 12 weeks without any major releases shows how insane the year was and shouldn't be used as a baseline.

Down 10% YoY would mean another ~10 million this year or slightly higher than 2019 in the same time frame which had Ring Fit, Luigi's Mansion, Pokemon & Lite a few weeks earlier.

This year has Mario Party & Pokemon for major software but since they already have entries on Switch the effects won't be as high, leaving OLED as the main hardware driver which will likely have supply issues.

I might be a bit conservative with my prediction so I'll adjust slightly and say down 5-10% YoY.



When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.

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If Japan's Switch numbers from today are any indication, expect shortages to bite hard in the next set of global numbers.

Nintendo just blew through multiple normal weeks of supply in one, and they gotta start stockpiling for the holiday rush too.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 21 October 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

Either way, this will be landing somewhere in the region of Wii 2008 or Switch 2020, which are the two most successful non-DS years of any system's sales, ever.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.