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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - OLED Switch - Closing poll, thank you for participating - Christmas week (Week 12 was 1.083M)

 

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Went risky with 600-650 option



 

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Sales in Japan dropped from 90.5k to 87.2k, me sticking with 450-500k might have been the right call.



I stay with 450 - 500k for week 6. Famitsu numbers look about the same as last week.



Japan was down but globally up by quite a bit. 529k

1 person got it right at least!



I didn't even vote on week 6, because it's just too hard to know how much Nintendo will stock. However, week 7 will include Pokemon. Surely Nintendo will send out a bigger shipment with that, right?



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padib said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I didn't even vote on week 6, because it's just too hard to know how much Nintendo will stock. However, week 7 will include Pokemon. Surely Nintendo will send out a bigger shipment with that, right?

I hope so, but unless they prepared reserve stock in advance it seems like they are reacting to demand so it's hard to predict if their capacity increased. Given the short timeframe of these events I would speculate that they didn't have enough time to predict for week 7 and are still catching up, perhaps ramping up production but that kind of change can take time. We'll see! :)

Here are the vote results for week 6

I'm going to guess that week 7 is going to be severely supply constrained against Friday's launch of pokemons Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl. I'll go with an absolute emptying of stock at 750k. (my start prediction was 900k)

Someone cheated, there was only 1 vote on 500-550k when I made my post after the numbers had already been released. xD

As for next week, 600-650k is my guess. But it could be higher, it's hard to know how much pokemon will raise sales, and how high sales can be raised based on stock.



padib said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

I didn't even vote on week 6, because it's just too hard to know how much Nintendo will stock. However, week 7 will include Pokemon. Surely Nintendo will send out a bigger shipment with that, right?

I hope so, but unless they prepared reserve stock in advance it seems like they are reacting to demand so it's hard to predict if their capacity increased. Given the short timeframe of these events I would speculate that they didn't have enough time to predict for week 7 and are still catching up, perhaps ramping up production but that kind of change can take time. We'll see! :)

Here are the vote results for week 6

I'm going to guess that week 7 is going to be severely supply constrained against Friday's launch of pokemons Brilliant Diamond and Shining Pearl. I'll go with an absolute emptying of stock at 750k. (my start prediction was 900k)

I'm voting 700-750k, but that's a total shot in the dark.  It seems to me that whatever they ship they are going to sell.  Same goes for the following week which includes Black Friday.



The_Liquid_Laser said:

I'm voting 700-750k, but that's a total shot in the dark.  It seems to me that whatever they ship they are going to sell.  Same goes for the following week which includes Black Friday.

Nintendo should divert more stock of the standard switch from EU to USA. Switch is always in stock in Europe (not oled).

Amazon UK has it's black friday offers up right now and it's still not sold out here.



So, now is the time for Black Friday week? I'll go with 800-850 then



 

derpysquirtle64 said:

So, now is the time for Black Friday week? I'll go with 800-850 then

Next is week before black friday (week ending 20th) and blackfriday is 26th.

But amazon uk already have blackfriday switch bundles up today lol.

Black Friday week last year Switch did 1.68m, so will be a massive boost coming.