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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - OLED Switch - Week 7 Predictions (Week 6 was 529k)

 

OLED Switch - Week 7 Prediction (All Switches Globally)

$ < 500k 0 0%
 
500k < $ < 550k 0 0%
 
550k < $ < 600k 0 0%
 
600k < $ < 650k 3 25.00%
 
650k < $ < 700k 2 16.67%
 
700k < $ < 750k 2 16.67%
 
750k < $ < 800k 2 16.67%
 
800k < $ < 850k 2 16.67%
 
850k < $ < 900k 0 0%
 
900k < $ 1 8.33%
 
Total:12

Hey guys, many of you were split on the value of the OLED. Now put your money where your mouth is and predict its sales!

How much do you think the Switch will sell, combined, in the OLED's opening week.

Feel free to break it down Switch, Switch OLED, Switch Lite, but start with the combined sales.

Feel free to offer weekly sales or to post by region

Here are the results so far (thanks to @Zippy6 and @trunkswd for the numbers):

Week Sales (According to VGC) Voters that got the right bracket
Week 1 861k  7 (11.48%)
Week 2 383k  2 (5.88%)
Week 3 481k  5 (25.00%)
Week 4 422k  4 (16.00%)
Week 5 479k  8 of 11 (72.72%)
Week 6 529k 2 of 10 (20.00%)

Here are the polls, week by week :)

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 6

My predictions

For me, worldwide, week-by-week until Christmas:

Date starting

Initial
Prediction

Updated Prediction 1 Week Before Comments True Sales per VGC
Week 1 Oct 9th 1.1M N/A I was expecting some big numbers, but stock shortages caused lower sales 862k
Week 2 Oct 16th 800k 500k I was expecting a drop from 861k, but not as drastic as returning to pre-OLED numbers.  378k
Week 3 Oct 23rd 650k 400k Having seen the results of the week prior, I undershot. 474k
Week 4 Oct 29th 700k 600k Having undershot the week prior, I overshot. The numbers ended up going down. 425k
Week 5 Nov 6th 750k 500k Well, I was close this time :) 479k
Week 6 Nov 13th 800k 600k Many of us are adjusting well our predictions against supply constraint. 529k
Week 7 Nov 20th 900k 750k
Week 8 Nov 27th 1.7M
Week 9 Dec 4th 1.3M
Week 10 Dec 11th 1.4M
Week 11 Dec 18th 1.55M

Last edited by padib - 6 days ago

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I personally think that's a bit optimistic and I'm kind of curious how global supply constraints on certain components could possibly restrict these numbers further.

I think it'll probably launch less than 1m. I don't feel like hardware sales number will have too much of a substantial jump because of the OLED design.



I think the OLED model will lead to rising Switch sales, but I don't expect wonders at this point of its life cycle. Most people should buy the OLED model who would have bought a Switch anyway. There aren't that many people who already own a Switch and will upgrade to the OLED model, I guess. And mainly these people would cause rising sales numbers. It would be a completely different case if the new model would have had more power. There's no reason to upgrade to the OLED model, if you usually use your Switch in TV mode.

I expect Switch doubles sales at OLED opening week (between 600-700k) and sales should stay around 400k (a bit higher than currently) and rise until Black Friday. There's actually no real system seller announced for the remaining year. Next year should be different with Zelda, Splatoon, Pokemon Arceus and Bayonetta (well, Bayonetta shouldn't move that much hardware).



siebensus4 said:

I think the OLED model will lead to rising Switch sales, but I don't expect wonders at this point of its life cycle. Most people should buy the OLED model who would have bought a Switch anyway. There aren't that many people who already own a Switch and will upgrade to the OLED model, I guess. And mainly these people would cause rising sales numbers. It would be a completely different case if the new model would have had more power. There's no reason to upgrade to the OLED model, if you usually use your Switch in TV mode.

I expect Switch doubles sales at OLED opening week (between 600-700k) and sales should stay around 400k (a bit higher than currently) and rise until Black Friday. There's actually no real system seller announced for the remaining year. Next year should be different with Zelda, Splatoon, Pokemon Arceus and Bayonetta (well, Bayonetta shouldn't move that much hardware).

You'd be surprised by how many people would by the new Switch, even if they are owning one actually. 

And there are 3 system sellers for the remaining of the year:

- Metroid Dread

- Pokémon remake

- Mario Party Superstars



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It depends how much stock they have tbh but i don't see it crossing a million. I feel like 700-800k would be an amazing launch for a model that isn't so groundbreaking. Metroid Dread might help a bit too since some fans of the franchise or genre might not have a Switch just yet.

It will for sure boost the sales over the rest of the year tho. It can retake it's lead over 2020 imo.



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The voting distribution in the poll is really interesting, it seems like the opinions on the success of the OLED are very mixed. Most though see it selling between 500k and 700k.

It would be interesting to see the sales figures for releases of other similar revisions in the past.



600-700k. Better than the Lite's debut, but nothing monstrous.

Considering the biggest non-holiday week for the Switch (according to VGC, at least) was a bit over 1M, I doubt we'll see a repeat of that. Considering that A) there's a potential for shortages and B) there's the potential for most existing Switch owners to not view it as much of an upgrade, the odds of it setting some sort of new record are probably nil. It should still do very well, at least in the short term. Our first big indication on how well it actually does will be when Famitsu sales drop in 8 days. For reference, the best debut for a hardware revision in Japan on record was the New 3DS, which by itself sold ~235k in its first week (the other extant 3DS models sold ~27k combined), while the runners-up are the 3DS XL at ~187k, the Switch Lite at ~178k, and the DSi at ~172k.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 05 October 2021

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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

I really don't see OLED bumping desire for Switch anymore than we are seeing. I think it will still sell 300-350k units and it will increase as we get closer to the holidays. The increase will have next to nothing to do with OLED. Not trying to dump on the hype train as I love Nintendo, but we are talking about a revision that will appeal to a very small niche of hardcore gamers arriving 4.5+ years after the console came out. If the past few decades are any indication, the market will start treating the Switch like it's in its sunset years regardless of how illogical some fans' assumptions are that it will be an abnormally long generation. The 6-year cycle is staying, people. Not only should you not be annoyed by that, but you should be glad. We will all be happier playing on a FULLY upgraded Switch 2 in 2023 than any of us would be playing Switch OG/Switch Lite/Switch OLED until 2025. I could be wrong, and I'd be quite down about that, as I'm tired of the Switch handling 3rd party games so poorly and tired of it feeling aged. I want something new and powerful that can handle at least PS4 level games with ease on the go.



Probably a little bit over optimistic, but I'll go with 700-800K option. OLED will take around 500K of these sales.



 

Anyone know how much the Lite model sold in it's opening week?