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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Switch shipped 114.33M by September 30th 2022. LT sales expectations?

 

Lifetime sales expectations?

Under 130M 1 4.35%
 
130-140M 1 4.35%
 
140-150M 7 30.43%
 
150-160M 10 43.48%
 
160M+ 4 17.39%
 
Total:23
Kakadu18 said:
Dulfite said:

Nintendo looks like it will bomb and everyone speaks of doom. Nintendo looks to do great and people have such absurd expectations that when they aren't met will look like a disappointment. The fact that they are guaranteed to do 110 million should have everyone marveling considering where we were last gen, anything beyond that is icing on the cake.

Basically yes, but with the current momentum, keeping up with last year for so long, anything below 130M would be disappointing because it would need a premature death for that.

At this point 130 million is guaranteed beyond any doubt - it should be in the 127m-130m range at the end of '22, with lots of time left before a successor hits.

Under 140 million would be the result of some sort of monstrous failure, the likes of which I can't even fathom so I'll say it's not remotely possible.

Under 150 million is in the realm of possibility but only if Nintendo cuts off the system very early and isn't planning any more big games beyond what we already know about - so very very unlikely.

160m is a very reasonable prediction.

170m is a reasonable prediction.

180m is not gonna happen unless Nintendo has another model planned and is planning like another 3D Mario and Mario Kart and other surprises and plans on keeping Switch going for longer than we expect, none of which I feel will happen.

155m-175m is like 95% likelihood.



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Slownenberg said:
Kakadu18 said:

Basically yes, but with the current momentum, keeping up with last year for so long, anything below 130M would be disappointing because it would need a premature death for that.

At this point 130 million is guaranteed beyond any doubt - it should be in the 127m-130m range at the end of '22, with lots of time left before a successor hits.

Under 140 million would be the result of some sort of monstrous failure, the likes of which I can't even fathom so I'll say it's not remotely possible.

Under 150 million is in the realm of possibility but only if Nintendo cuts off the system very early and isn't planning any more big games beyond what we already know about - so very very unlikely.

160m is a very reasonable prediction.

170m is a reasonable prediction.

180m is not gonna happen unless Nintendo has more models planned and is planning like another 3D Mario and Mario Kart and other surprises and plans on keeping Switch going for longer than we expect, none of which I feel will happen.

155m-175m is like 95% likelihood.

I just can't agree with these numbers lol. We just got evidence that the Switch is already slowing down considerably compared to last year, and that will only continue moreso into the holidays and next year. There is no equivelence to the mega hitters from 2017-2020 coming out this year to really push momentum. Metroid Dread, Mario Party All Stars, SSHD, SMTV, none of those are Animal Crossing, Mariokart, or Smash.

I don't think OLED is going to move crazy amounts, just like I didn't think LITE would either, especially with Steam Deck appealing to the truly hardcore spec nerds that don't mind missing out on first party titles (beforehand, these guys would probably have considered OLED as the best way to play third party games on the go, but that won't be the case anymore).

PS4 will probably not hit 125 million (maybe not even 120 million) and everyone thought that was a massive success, yet you are practically expecting Switch to hit 150 mil + based on your post. That's like thinking a political party is going to win 67% of the vote in America lol. That is only going to set you, and anyone inspired by you, up for disappointment when realistic numbers are posted. It is not doing DS level numbers to achive 155 - 175 million units sold. The only way they could get even close to that is if they prolonged this generation in an unhealthy way. They aren't going to delay the Switch 2 generation (where they could get 15-25 million sales a year) just so they can prolong Switch 1 generation (and get 5-15 million sales a year). You don't grow as a company by milking a device when it starts to slow down, you grow by launching new devices that the market wants more. If they can sell more consoles by releasing Switch 2 than by continuing to sell increasingly outdated Switch 1's, they are absolutely going to do that. And software companies are going to push for new hardware more in the coming months and years, as they will also be developing for Series X/PS5. They had a hard time downsizing games to work on Switch from the PS4/XBO and those are weaksauce compared to PS5/SX, so the longer Switch stays out as the flagship Nintendo device the less AAA third party games Switch will get, which will drive hardware sales down further. I completely believe Switch 2 is coming 2023, a full 6 year life cycle after Switch 1. Switch 1 will sell PS4 levels, which is absolutely amazing, and Nintendo will hopefully continue to have that kind of success with Switch 2 (or whatever it will be called).



Slownenberg said:
Kakadu18 said:

Basically yes, but with the current momentum, keeping up with last year for so long, anything below 130M would be disappointing because it would need a premature death for that.

At this point 130 million is guaranteed beyond any doubt - it should be in the 127m-130m range at the end of '22, with lots of time left before a successor hits.

Under 140 million would be the result of some sort of monstrous failure, the likes of which I can't even fathom so I'll say it's not remotely possible.

Under 150 million is in the realm of possibility but only if Nintendo cuts off the system very early and isn't planning any more big games beyond what we already know about - so very very unlikely.

160m is a very reasonable prediction.

170m is a reasonable prediction.

180m is not gonna happen unless Nintendo has another model planned and is planning like another 3D Mario and Mario Kart and other surprises and plans on keeping Switch going for longer than we expect, none of which I feel will happen.

155m-175m is like 95% likelihood.

I agree that 130M is guaranteed.

Under 140M is highly unlikely, unless there's some terrible missmanagement later on or the Switch successor launches earlier than I expect.

150M is a reasonable prediction.

160M is in the realm of possibility but not very likely.

170M has like a 1% chance of happening. For that Nintendo would need to permanently cut the price of all Switch models and software preferably next year and do more aggressive hardware bundling in the holidays. That's unlikely to happen .

Anything beyond that is wishful thinking.

155-175M is like 50% likelyhood.

Just my opinion.



Dulfite said:
Slownenberg said:

At this point 130 million is guaranteed beyond any doubt - it should be in the 127m-130m range at the end of '22, with lots of time left before a successor hits.

Under 140 million would be the result of some sort of monstrous failure, the likes of which I can't even fathom so I'll say it's not remotely possible.

Under 150 million is in the realm of possibility but only if Nintendo cuts off the system very early and isn't planning any more big games beyond what we already know about - so very very unlikely.

160m is a very reasonable prediction.

170m is a reasonable prediction.

180m is not gonna happen unless Nintendo has more models planned and is planning like another 3D Mario and Mario Kart and other surprises and plans on keeping Switch going for longer than we expect, none of which I feel will happen.

155m-175m is like 95% likelihood.

I just can't agree with these numbers lol. We just got evidence that the Switch is already slowing down considerably compared to last year, and that will only continue moreso into the holidays and next year. There is no equivelence to the mega hitters from 2017-2020 coming out this year to really push momentum. Metroid Dread, Mario Party All Stars, SSHD, SMTV, none of those are Animal Crossing, Mariokart, or Smash.

I don't think OLED is going to move crazy amounts, just like I didn't think LITE would either, especially with Steam Deck appealing to the truly hardcore spec nerds that don't mind missing out on first party titles (beforehand, these guys would probably have considered OLED as the best way to play third party games on the go, but that won't be the case anymore).

PS4 will probably not hit 125 million (maybe not even 120 million) and everyone thought that was a massive success, yet you are practically expecting Switch to hit 150 mil + based on your post. That's like thinking a political party is going to win 67% of the vote in America lol. That is only going to set you, and anyone inspired by you, up for disappointment when realistic numbers are posted. It is not doing DS level numbers to achive 155 - 175 million units sold. The only way they could get even close to that is if they prolonged this generation in an unhealthy way. They aren't going to delay the Switch 2 generation (where they could get 15-25 million sales a year) just so they can prolong Switch 1 generation (and get 5-15 million sales a year). You don't grow as a company by milking a device when it starts to slow down, you grow by launching new devices that the market wants more. If they can sell more consoles by releasing Switch 2 than by continuing to sell increasingly outdated Switch 1's, they are absolutely going to do that. And software companies are going to push for new hardware more in the coming months and years, as they will also be developing for Series X/PS5. They had a hard time downsizing games to work on Switch from the PS4/XBO and those are weaksauce compared to PS5/SX, so the longer Switch stays out as the flagship Nintendo device the less AAA third party games Switch will get, which will drive hardware sales down further. I completely believe Switch 2 is coming 2023, a full 6 year life cycle after Switch 1. Switch 1 will sell PS4 levels, which is absolutely amazing, and Nintendo will hopefully continue to have that kind of success with Switch 2 (or whatever it will be called).

Bold 1: While I also disagree with those numbers, last quarter the hybrid was still up yoy and the holiday quarter has a way better line up than last year, which is why I think it will be similar in sales or a bit bigger than last year.

Bold 2: The PS4's sales are why I think the Switch will definitely sell over 140M. It already had two years with bigger sales than in the PS4's biggest year and this year (and next year in my expectations) will be no different. While selling way less yearly the PS4 was on track to reach 130M before Sony cut it's legs.

Unless Furukawa's statement that the Switch will have a longer life and that it was in it's middle last year is nonesense I don't see it as a possibility that the Switch successor will launch before holiday 2023. March 2024 or holiday 2024 is what I see as likelier.

Point is, after a certain point the Switch started selling way above PS4 levels, it will end up way above that too if my predictions in my first post in this thread are anywhere close to what will happen.



Kakadu18 said:

I think the Switch will be at 105M at the end of 2021.
I think the successor will launch in 2024, March or holiday.
Here are hypothetical yearly sales:
2022 - 22M
Q1 - 4M
Q2 - 4M
Q3 - 4M
Q4 - 10M
2023 - 17M
Q1 - 3M
Q2 - 3M
Q3 - 3M
Q4 - 8M
2024 - 10M
Q1 - 2M
Q2 - 1.5M
Q3 - 1.5M
Q4 - 5M
2025 - 2-5M

156-159M

2025 sales depend on how Nintendo handles the system after it's successor has launched.
I don't think it'll go any higher than 160M.
I did think it was guaranteed, but not anymore.
The 2024 sales could also end up lower if Nintendo never makes a price cut, which would lead to it staying behind the DS.

But I still think it has a very good chance at reaching 150M.

I think that’s fair. A lot depends on their strategy for the next generation. I once assumed they were going for shorter iterative generations, but we’re a bit past the mark for that now, I think March this year was probably the last chance for that. We’re now in full length generation timelines.

But if Nintendo goes iterative but long term  and doesn’t slam on the brakes, 150m seems inevitable. People remember Wii rising up really fast and then falling off just as fast. March 2009, the end of the Wii’s most successful fiscal year, the console had sold 50.38 million units… that’s less than half the Wii’s sales, about 49% of the way through its lifetime sales. And this is a console that Nintendo slammed the brakes on… examples of consoles that were allowed to coast include NES and PS2, both sold millions a year for around a decade, but then died off quickly after that.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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Seems like some people are vastly under-predicting Switch's sales. We're in the midst of another high 20 millions year and there are a slew of huge games coming out next year, it should be around 105 million (or slightly higher) end of this year. Switch will likely be passing 130 million by end of March 2023, and there are people on here predicting a lifetime total of around 130 million lol.

All you gotta do is add the numbers up. Switch this year so far has outsold last year, and should have a bigger holiday season this year so even though it's slowing down now it should sell around what it did last year (27m+). That should put it at least at 105m this year. It'll start to drop next year sure, but minimum it's gonna be 125m by end of 2022. Then we've got all of 2023, worst case scenario with Switch dropping hard would be 140 million end of 2023. In this worst case scenario in which Switch is dropping hard in 2023 that'll force Nintendo's hand to release successor in Spring 2024, so Switch would be a bit shy of 150m by end of 2024 with it being replaced earlier that year.
A few more years to sell a little bit would probably put it at right around DS or PS2 sales...and that's just about the WORST case scenario! Anyone talking about under 140m sales is living in an alternate reality, seriously. Just look at the numbers, 130m is a joke, 140m is a joke, 150m is a low prediction, 160-170m is very very doable.



yo33331 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Bold 2: The PS4's sales are why I think the Switch will definitely sell over 140M. It already had two years with bigger sales than in the PS4's biggest year and this year (and next year in my expectations) will be no different. While selling way less yearly the PS4 was on track to reach 130M before Sony cut it's legs.

Unless Furukawa's statement that the Switch will have a longer life and that it was in it's middle last year is nonesense I don't see it as a possibility that the Switch successor will launch before holiday 2023. March 2024 or holiday 2024 is what I see as likelier.

Point is, after a certain point the Switch started selling way above PS4 levels, it will end up way above that too if my predictions in my first post in this thread are anywhere close to what will happen.

Normally the PS consoles have better legs and longer lives. Nintendo's consoles power is in the sales per year, while Sony's are in the long legs and the overall lifetime sales (5 of 6 have very good to incredible sales lifetime)

It's normal for Nintendo console to have biggest peak periods than Sony's. It's always the way it's been. However this doesn't mean it will beat Sony's console or will have much better legs and much better overall lifetime sales. (Well Switch have good chance of beating the PS4, but I don't think it will go much further.)

Wii did have peak year of 24M as well, but it is well under PS4. DS had way bigger and way more bigger years than the PS2 and was 4M short of it in the end.

3DS had more years of 10M+ sales than PSP, and still finished under PSP with a whopping 6M difference.

Switch had 28.2M one year, will have this year at around 25M, and I think those will be the years of the Switch that are 20M+

And as I said Switch have very good chances of beating PS4, however I don't think it will be 20-30-40M above it. It will finish at 120-135M range.

Just because Switch will have 2 years better than the peak PS4 year does not mean it will outsell it by some 20-30% lifetime

You really need to not compare Switch to PS4 as though they are going to be close. Switch is obliterating the PS4. PS4 topped out at under 20 million, Switch will have two years in the high 20's! You gotta realize how big a difference that is...Switch's top two years are going to be just shy of PS4's top 3 years combined. That's a whole extra year of good PS4 sales slipped into Switch's sales numbers. And likely Switch will have one more year in the low 20s.

Switch will be around 105m end of this year, with loooots of time left in its life, whereas PS4 hit 105 million during its final holiday season as the current gen system. That's a world of difference.

When PS4 passed 105m everyone was getting ready for the PS5. When Switch passes 105m in the next 5 months nobody is thinking about getting ready for the Switch 2, we're thinking okay next Pokemon is about to hit, next Splatoon soon, Mario+Rabbids, waiting on BotW2, when's a Zelda collection coming, when's Metroid Prime Trilogy coming, I wonder if Prime 4 will be in the next year or will it be two years, how about Pikmin 4, when is a new 2D Mario coming, are we getting a DK game, will some other fan-wanted franchises hit at some point, is another Ring Fit coming, when will we finally get price drops on hardware and games, what other big games will we be getting eventually. So yes, absolutely Switch is going to outsell PS4 by perhaps 30% or more. These two systems are not close.

Think about it another way: Switch is going to pass PS4 sales NEXT YEAR! And Switch will be around for a while after that. If BotW2 doesn't hit until holiday 2022 that means Switch will be passing PS4 just as Switch's most anticipated game is releasing! And it will by no means be Switch's last major game. This.will.not.be.close!

Last edited by Slownenberg - on 08 August 2021

Slownenberg said:
yo33331 said:

Normally the PS consoles have better legs and longer lives. Nintendo's consoles power is in the sales per year, while Sony's are in the long legs and the overall lifetime sales (5 of 6 have very good to incredible sales lifetime)

It's normal for Nintendo console to have biggest peak periods than Sony's. It's always the way it's been. However this doesn't mean it will beat Sony's console or will have much better legs and much better overall lifetime sales. (Well Switch have good chance of beating the PS4, but I don't think it will go much further.)

Wii did have peak year of 24M as well, but it is well under PS4. DS had way bigger and way more bigger years than the PS2 and was 4M short of it in the end.

3DS had more years of 10M+ sales than PSP, and still finished under PSP with a whopping 6M difference.

Switch had 28.2M one year, will have this year at around 25M, and I think those will be the years of the Switch that are 20M+

And as I said Switch have very good chances of beating PS4, however I don't think it will be 20-30-40M above it. It will finish at 120-135M range.

Just because Switch will have 2 years better than the peak PS4 year does not mean it will outsell it by some 20-30% lifetime

You really need to not compare Switch to PS4 as though they are going to be close. Switch is obliterating the PS4. PS4 topped out at under 20 million, Switch will have two years in the high 20's! You gotta realize how big a difference that is...Switch's top two years are going to be just shy of PS4's top 3 years combined. That's a whole extra year of good PS4 sales slipped into Switch's sales numbers. And likely Switch will have one more year in the low 20s.

Switch will be around 105m end of this year, with loooots of time left in its life, whereas PS4 hit 105 million during its final holiday season as the current gen system. That's a world of difference.

When PS4 passed 105m everyone was getting ready for the PS5. When Switch passes 105m in the next 5 months nobody is thinking about getting ready for the Switch 2, we're thinking okay next Pokemon is about to hit, next Splatoon soon, Mario+Rabbids, waiting on BotW2, when's a Zelda collection coming, when's Metroid Prime Trilogy coming, I wonder if Prime 4 will be in the next year or will it be two years, how about Pikmin 4, when is a new 2D Mario coming, are we getting a DK game, will some other fan-wanted franchises hit at some point, is another Ring Fit coming, when will we finally get price drops on hardware and games, what other big games will we be getting eventually. So yes, absolutely Switch is going to outsell PS4 by perhaps 30% or more. These two systems are not close.

Think about it another way: Switch is going to pass PS4 sales NEXT YEAR! And Switch will be around for a while after that. If BotW2 doesn't hit until holiday 2022 that means Switch will be passing PS4 just as Switch's most anticipated game is releasing! And it will by no means be Switch's last major game. This.will.not.be.close!

With this I agree with you, but I think you're still overestimating the Switch a bit.



Here is a purposefully pessimistic projection I made earlier this year.

2021: 25/102

2022: 19/121

2023: 12/133

2024: 5/138

2025+: 2/140

Even with this fairly quick decline assuming 2020 does end up being the peak year it still gets to 140 million so unless it declines even quicker than that for some reason 140m is likely the minimum it'll do at this point so while it's not one of the options 140-170m is the range I expect it to land in and whether it outsells the PS2 and DS or not I think it'll probably be close either way. Like I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up at the late 140's or early 150's or late 150's or early 160's.

Last edited by Norion - on 08 August 2021

yo33331 said:
Norion said:

Here is a purposefully pessimistic projection I made earlier this year.

2021: 25/102

2022: 19/121

2023: 12/133

2024: 5/138

2025+: 2/140

Mine is something like this:

2021: 25/102M

2022: 15/117M

2023: 8/125M

2024: 3/128M

2025+: 1-2/~130M

My issue with that projection is I don't see why sales would decline by 40% next year. That sort of decline is what you'd expect to see the year the successor releases and 2022 is of course not when that is happening. A 30% decline is the highest I can see it reasonably going.