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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Switch shipped 114.33M by September 30th 2022. LT sales expectations?

 

Lifetime sales expectations?

Under 130M 1 4.35%
 
130-140M 1 4.35%
 
140-150M 7 30.43%
 
150-160M 10 43.48%
 
160M+ 4 17.39%
 
Total:23
Kakadu18 said:
ShadowLink93 said:

It will continue to sell untill a successor and eventually Nintendo can sell the lite for $90 and the Oled for $180 and a Nintendo selects line for all major first party games to keep sales up. 170 million + if they want it.

Such deep price cuts wouldn't really have any benefit. I don't see that happening.

Price cuts will reduce the decline and give Switch a stronger tail.



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ShadowLink93 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Such deep price cuts wouldn't really have any benefit. I don't see that happening.

Price cuts will reduce the decline and give Switch a stronger tail.

Don't see such extreme price cuts happening. None of the hardware manufacturers rely on price cuts nearly as much, it's not the 1990s anymore. 

There might be one off retailer sales (the 2DS had that) for short periods of time, but an official price cut of like $89.99 for a Switch Lite ... don't see it happening. 



jonathanalis said:

Ok, lets go with other prediction.
-2022 fy: 21~ Million, goint to 129 M
-2023 fy: launch a new switch model, about the same processing power, but with included chip for DLSS to output until 4k (switch pro, new, super, 4k, +, idk), aligned with zelda 2.
The declide would start to pick up due to saturation, but hard push on the new model for people replace their switch by the newer version. More 19 M sold, going to 148M.
-2024 fy: 16M. Starting to see bundles with switch sports and other games, Europe to get the last high numbers. 164 total.
-2025 fy: Sucessor launch. 10M. 174M
-2026 and beyond: 6M
180M LT.

You can't just "add a DLSS chip". The chipset would have to be a lot more powerful, so "same processing power" is out the window. 



ShadowLink93 said:
Kakadu18 said:

Such deep price cuts wouldn't really have any benefit. I don't see that happening.

Price cuts will reduce the decline and give Switch a stronger tail.

And they lead to lower profits. Price cuts this deep would mean they'd be selling the hardware at a loss. This fiscal year Switch production and shipping costs are expected to rise according to Furukawa and the OLED has lower profit margins than the other two models. 

Production costs would need to drop a lot in the next two years to make a price cut anywhere close to 50% financially feasible. They make a lot of profit off of hardware sales.



Ight let me do my prediction by year:

End of March 2023: 129 Million
End of March 2024: 145 Million
End of March 2025: 153 Million

Total:~157 Million

So it should technically outsell the PS2 at 157 Million. But it's gonna be a bit weird to determine if the Switch officially outsold the PS2 because of how many different sales figures there are for the PS2. The last reported sales figure by Sony was 155 Million but we know that the PS2 sold a little bit more after that reported figure so there are a bunch of different websites stating that the PS2 sold 157 Million, some state 158 or 159 Million. So that's a grey area that's gonna need to be debated on to determine if the Switch really outsold the PS2. But in general the Switch I'd say will likely hover around 157 Million to potentially be the greatest selling console of all time.



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One MILLION units.


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I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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I’ll stick with what I’ve been thinking for quite some time now, with even firmer belief than before.

It’ll end at around 140M (picked the140-150 option), not beating DS and PS2.



Still hoping for 160+! Could be close depending on what Nintendo's plans are for the next few years. At minimum, I see the Switch reaching 145m.



Before this quarter release I was pretty confident that the Switch would reach 155M+ and outsell the PS2. However, this drop in sales this quarter along with Nintendo's drop in its sales forecast sort of tempered my expectations a bit now when it come to Switch sales. I still think its gonna be really close however and at this point it could go either way on whether or not it could outsell the PS2. Minimum ik it'll see 140M, im leaning towards the low 150Ms rn, really depends on when the Switch successor releases.