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Forums - Sales Discussion - The Switch shipped 139.36M by 31.12.2023. LT sales expectations?

 

Lifetime sales expectations

Under 150M 2 11.76%
 
150-155M 6 35.29%
 
155-158M 1 5.88%
 
158-165M 7 41.18%
 
165M+ 1 5.88%
 
Total:17
Wyrdness on 09 August 2021

140m plus is my prediction it'll be at around 104m by the end of this year meaning from January onward it'll be running around in the 100m club with a very active run something only two platforms have managed and those are the top two selling platforms.



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Dulfite on 09 August 2021
Kakadu18 said:
Dulfite said:

Aside from HW: AoC and a massive amount of AA and A level games, 2020 had the following popular games:

-Super Mario 3D All Stars (shipped over 9 million by 3/31/21)

-Doom Eternal (not sure how much this one sold)

-Clubhouse 51 (over 3 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Immortals Fenyx Rising (not sure how much this sold but Ubisoft was pleased publically with Switch sales)

-Paper Mario The Oragami King (over 3 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-MarioKart Live Circuit (over 1 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Ori and the Will of the Wisps (no clue what this sold)

-Ninjala (free, but very popular game)

-Xenoblade Chronicles 1 HD (over 1.5 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Darksiders Genesis (no clue what this sold)

-Pikmin 3 Delux (over 2 million shipped by 3/31/21)

I'm not certian off the top of my head which of these came out when, but these all drove hardware last year for somebody. Age of Calimity was not the only game that came out in 2020 that drove people to buy a Switch come holiday. There were plenty of games that came out that year that still seemed new that people bought in to play.

The Pokemon game coming out this year is extremely ridiculoud by the fans. I wouldn't be surprised if it is the worst selling remake to date because of it. I personally like the art style, but I have seen a lot more critisize it than praise it.

The OLED model that many complained about after it was released, and even moreso after Steam Deck was shown, is not something, I think, that will sell well. I think it will historically do worse than LITE, and far worse than the base model. Nintendo gamers that play on the go aren't interested in the best specs possible, and people that want the best visuals will play docked no matter what. The OLED fills a tiny niche in their wider market, it doesn't open up a huge opportunity in my opinion. Could I be wrong? Sure, but it is my opinion that Switch sales will be down Y/Y from fiscal 2020 by at least a few million consoles.

I don't see BD/SP selling below 12M units LT, I think they'll sell that much in their launch quater. On Amazon best sellers in my country they shot up to the top right after the reveal and BD didn't leave the top 100. That's generally not a very good metric for predicting the games sales, but neither is critique on gaming forums.

About the OLED model, it doesn't have better specs.

The OLED screen is itself a better spec. Also the wired LAN. Specs aren't limited to just graphical power.



konnichiwa on 09 August 2021

I agree that the saturation can hit hard and we need reasons to why non switch owners will buy switches in huge numbers. If people didn't wanted to get a switch yet you will not convince them with sequels, you need a combination of unique games that make people go 'alright I will get a switch now' It is all doable and we don't know really what is in the pipeline for 2023/2024.






The_Liquid_Laser on 10 August 2021
Dulfite said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

No we didn't.  Sales so far this year are about the same as last year.  If you compare only Q2 2020 to Q2 2021, then yeah 2021 is down, because 2020 sales were all about Animal Crossing, and that was the time period when Animal Crossing was really driving sales.  Nintendo's quarterly report said that Animal Crossing was 40% of all of their first party sales during Q2 of 2020!  In 2020 Switch sales really shot up, but the most amazing time of year was during Q2.  So if you only compare Q2 for this year and last year, then you are going to come to some pretty messed up conclusions. 

On the other hand, what games did Nintendo have for holiday 2020?  Nothing really.  They had Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity.  This year they are going to have Pokemon and a new Switch model.  Pokemon alone is enough to make sales up YoY.  Throw in a new model, and there should be no question that sales are going to be up this year.  

Aside from HW: AoC and a massive amount of AA and A level games, 2020 had the following popular games:

-Super Mario 3D All Stars (shipped over 9 million by 3/31/21)

-Doom Eternal (not sure how much this one sold)

-Clubhouse 51 (over 3 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Immortals Fenyx Rising (not sure how much this sold but Ubisoft was pleased publically with Switch sales)

-Paper Mario The Oragami King (over 3 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-MarioKart Live Circuit (over 1 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Ori and the Will of the Wisps (no clue what this sold)

-Ninjala (free, but very popular game)

-Xenoblade Chronicles 1 HD (over 1.5 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Darksiders Genesis (no clue what this sold)

-Pikmin 3 Delux (over 2 million shipped by 3/31/21)

I'm not certian off the top of my head which of these came out when, but these all drove hardware last year for somebody. Age of Calimity was not the only game that came out in 2020 that drove people to buy a Switch come holiday. There were plenty of games that came out that year that still seemed new that people bought in to play.

The Pokemon game coming out this year is extremely ridiculoud by the fans. I wouldn't be surprised if it is the worst selling remake to date because of it. I personally like the art style, but I have seen a lot more critisize it than praise it.

The OLED model that many complained about after it was released, and even moreso after Steam Deck was shown, is not something, I think, that will sell well. I think it will historically do worse than LITE, and far worse than the base model. Nintendo gamers that play on the go aren't interested in the best specs possible, and people that want the best visuals will play docked no matter what. The OLED fills a tiny niche in their wider market, it doesn't open up a huge opportunity in my opinion. Could I be wrong? Sure, but it is my opinion that Switch sales will be down Y/Y from fiscal 2020 by at least a few million consoles.

1) All of those games you mentioned put together sold about 1/2 of Animal Crossing's total.  The year 2020 was all about Animal Crossing when it came to sales.  Most of the other games hardly did anything except for the evergreens.

2) All of your other comments seem to be based off what people say on the internet.  The internet is the land of bullshit.  If the internet says one thing, then you should probably bet that the opposite will happen.  The internet complains about Pokemon Sw/Sh, and it's on track to be the second best selling title ever.  If they are complaining about OLED and BD/SP, then you should bet on both doing well.  The internet narrative has very little to do with sales reality.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox

Wman1996 on 10 August 2021

Switch has been one of the most unpredictable hardware successes ever. Before it came out, I thought there was at least a slight chance it could tank as much as the Wii U. Then, about a few months after its release I figured it would pull NES numbers on the lower end and 3DS numbers on the higher end.

But now it looks to be surpassed only by the DS and PS2 (and has seemed that way for several months to a year or more). I voted for the 135-150 million range. Nintendo's plans for a Switch successor are going to impact the Switch's hardware totals greatly. If they wait until 2025 to release Switch 2, the Switch would probably outsell the PS2 by about 5 million units when all is said and done. If Switch 2 comes out in 2023 or 2024, Switch will probably still come short of the DS.
Switch's peak seems to be 2020, though there is a chance 2021 will be the peak (or close to it).



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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Mandalore76 on 10 August 2021
yo33331 said:
noshten said:

lets say it's at 107 million this year(so 18 million for the second half of the year), next year it's unlikely to fall below 23 million with Splatoon 3, Breath of the Wild Sequel, Open World Pokemon - so we are looking at 130 million end of 2022. Even if a successor is launched at the end of 2023 I can see it surpassing 150 million, if a Successor launches after 2024 than its likely above 160 million. It all depends on what exactly are the plans for Nintendo - if it makes sense to prolong the life of the Switch until 2025 when they can offer something comparable to XSS performance on a handheld while still making a profit on hardware, I can see it trying to prolong the Switch until late 2024 early 2025.

So far they've launched a dock-less Switch - the Switch Lite, so the next possible iteration is a TV only Switch that acts as a supplementary computing & docking for Lites/OG/OLED Switches. Nintendo are already developing in a scalable way, that allows them to easily bump up resolution & fps on major titles, while it would be up to 3rd Parties to decide if it makes financial sense to update their existing games or leverage this option for future titles. This is how I think they can prolong the Switch's life and approach a crazy figure like 170 million. Basically the only chances of this happening is Switch 2 doesn't launch until 2025 and a Switch Pro is actually a complementary device that on it's own is just a TV only console with an empty Dock.

You are wayyy too optimistic.

I can't see the Switch making more than 25M for this year, or around 13-14M at max for the second half of it. And finishing around 102M by end of this year.

Next year will drop hard, and the successor is very likely coming in spring 2023. So switch don't have much time left. Around 130M lifetime is reasonable prediction.

How much is your "drop hard" prediction for next year though?  The Wii's worst yearly declines were 6 million in 2011 (17m --> 11 m), and 2012 (11m --> 5m), and that was precipitated by only a 4m drop in 2010 (21m --> 17m).  You are expecting more drastic drops from the Switch than what the Wii experienced?

Personally, I'd like to see the Switch cross 150m sold, but I pragmatically voted the 135 - 150m option in the poll with expectations of around 140m.



Dulfite on 10 August 2021
The_Liquid_Laser said:
Dulfite said:

Aside from HW: AoC and a massive amount of AA and A level games, 2020 had the following popular games:

-Super Mario 3D All Stars (shipped over 9 million by 3/31/21)

-Doom Eternal (not sure how much this one sold)

-Clubhouse 51 (over 3 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Immortals Fenyx Rising (not sure how much this sold but Ubisoft was pleased publically with Switch sales)

-Paper Mario The Oragami King (over 3 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-MarioKart Live Circuit (over 1 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Ori and the Will of the Wisps (no clue what this sold)

-Ninjala (free, but very popular game)

-Xenoblade Chronicles 1 HD (over 1.5 million shipped by 3/31/21)

-Darksiders Genesis (no clue what this sold)

-Pikmin 3 Delux (over 2 million shipped by 3/31/21)

I'm not certian off the top of my head which of these came out when, but these all drove hardware last year for somebody. Age of Calimity was not the only game that came out in 2020 that drove people to buy a Switch come holiday. There were plenty of games that came out that year that still seemed new that people bought in to play.

The Pokemon game coming out this year is extremely ridiculoud by the fans. I wouldn't be surprised if it is the worst selling remake to date because of it. I personally like the art style, but I have seen a lot more critisize it than praise it.

The OLED model that many complained about after it was released, and even moreso after Steam Deck was shown, is not something, I think, that will sell well. I think it will historically do worse than LITE, and far worse than the base model. Nintendo gamers that play on the go aren't interested in the best specs possible, and people that want the best visuals will play docked no matter what. The OLED fills a tiny niche in their wider market, it doesn't open up a huge opportunity in my opinion. Could I be wrong? Sure, but it is my opinion that Switch sales will be down Y/Y from fiscal 2020 by at least a few million consoles.

1) All of those games you mentioned put together sold about 1/2 of Animal Crossing's total.  The year 2020 was all about Animal Crossing when it came to sales.  Most of the other games hardly did anything except for the evergreens.

2) All of your other comments seem to be based off what people say on the internet.  The internet is the land of bullshit.  If the internet says one thing, then you should probably bet that the opposite will happen.  The internet complains about Pokemon Sw/Sh, and it's on track to be the second best selling title ever.  If they are complaining about OLED and BD/SP, then you should bet on both doing well.  The internet narrative has very little to do with sales reality.

So games only count as success and pushing hardware if they sell 25-30 million copies? Seriously, are we at that point now where expectations of sales are this ridiculously high? 3 million sales is WONDERFUL and absolutely moves hardware. Yes, nothing beat ACNH, but I didn't say anything did last year.

In my opinion, OLED Switch is just filling a niche market on Switch. It will do no better than the New 3ds/New 3ds XL did compared to 3ds.



Bofferbrauer2 on 10 August 2021

I believe it will become the best-selling console ever, so 150M-170M

yo33331 said:
Mandalore76 said:

How much is your "drop hard" prediction for next year though?  The Wii's worst yearly declines were 6 million in 2011 (17m --> 11 m), and 2012 (11m --> 5m), and that was precipitated by only a 4m drop in 2010 (21m --> 17m).  You are expecting more drastic drops from the Switch than what the Wii experienced?

Personally, I'd like to see the Switch cross 150m sold, but I pragmatically voted the 135 - 150m option in the poll with expectations of around 140m.

I expect 15M for next year.

This is drop of around 10M.(I expect switch to make 25M this year)

And yes this is bigger drop than the Wii but it will be so because

1. The ratio is different. 6M for 17M number to 11M is like 10M for 25M to 15M, or something close.

2. Yes it is bigger also because with the time consoles began dropping quickly and quickly after their peak. My bet for Switch is it will drop to 15M next year.

You may give me reasons and examples of different consoles, but my predictions still stands.

For the Switch to drop off so much, many, many things need to go wrong.

  1. In case of the Wii, casuals were switching to both Kinect and smartphones, the supply of games slowly dried up (though not as drastic as Rol often makes it out to be. I mean, at E3 2010 Nintendo announced Metroid Other M, Skyward Sword, a Kirby game (can't remember it's name), Goldeneye 007 Wii, so there were still a lot of games made for the Wii when it already started to drop. Just look at the Penny Arcade skit from that year: https://www.penny-arcade.com/comic/2010/06/16/lets-get-ready-to-rummmmbllllle ) as they had now to support the Wii, DS, 3DS and the Wii U during a period of time. There will only be one successor and as such, the teams will not need to support 4 platforms at once.
  2. PS4 dropped quickly because people were yearning for a pricecut. This was very visible whenever the price dropped of the PS4 for whatever promotion, as the sales jumped massively during those times in the later years. Had Sony dropped the price of the PS4 even just to $250 all the way back in 2018 or early 2019 and we'll have a PS4 who would have sold 130M+.
  3. If there were some reasons to drop so strongly, we would see them well right now with the wait for the upcoming OLED model. But guess what: The weekly sales in Japan still have to drop below 60k despite it now has been 5 weeks since the OLED model has been announced and that without any big releases, which shows that demand is still very high, too high for it to almost get halved next year.

Long story short, there's no reason for the Switch to drop anywhere near that drastically. 20M I can get behind, but anything below 18M has no grounds in logic.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 10 August 2021

The Nintendo eShop rating Thread: http://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread.php?id=237454 List as Google Doc:  https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aW2hXQT1TheElVS7z-F3pP-7nbqdrDqWNTxl6JoJWBY/edit?usp=sharing

The Steam/GOG key gifting thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/242024/the-steamgog-key-gifting-thread/1/ 

Free Pc Games thread: https://gamrconnect.vgchartz.com/thread/248138/free-pc-games/1/

peachbuggy on 10 August 2021

I think that drop is what he HOPES will happen, so in his case, what he wishes will happen trumps all logic.



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The_Liquid_Laser on 10 August 2021
Dulfite said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

1) All of those games you mentioned put together sold about 1/2 of Animal Crossing's total.  The year 2020 was all about Animal Crossing when it came to sales.  Most of the other games hardly did anything except for the evergreens.

2) All of your other comments seem to be based off what people say on the internet.  The internet is the land of bullshit.  If the internet says one thing, then you should probably bet that the opposite will happen.  The internet complains about Pokemon Sw/Sh, and it's on track to be the second best selling title ever.  If they are complaining about OLED and BD/SP, then you should bet on both doing well.  The internet narrative has very little to do with sales reality.

So games only count as success and pushing hardware if they sell 25-30 million copies? Seriously, are we at that point now where expectations of sales are this ridiculously high? 3 million sales is WONDERFUL and absolutely moves hardware. Yes, nothing beat ACNH, but I didn't say anything did last year.

In my opinion, OLED Switch is just filling a niche market on Switch. It will do no better than the New 3ds/New 3ds XL did compared to 3ds.

When it comes to new releases last year, everything on the Switch paled in comparison to Animal Crossing.  You are trying to tell me what drove holiday sales, but nothing significant was released around the holidays.  It wasn't new releases driving holiday sales.  Switch had an amazing 2020, but the holiday season was the least impressive part.  In fact, Animal Crossing sold 5.14m during the holiday quarter making it the top selling Switch title for that time period.  The whole year really was about Animal Crossing.

What is more impressive is that Switch sales in 2021 are keeping pace so far with 2020, and it has mostly been compared to Animal Crossing's strongest part.  That means Switch's momentum is strong going into the holidays.  The least popular Pokemon games on the 3DS still sold around 15m.  The OLED model will boost sales a lot even if it is ultimately unpopular.  We can see now that the Switch Lite doesn't sell nearly as well as the base model, and yet Switch Lite boosted sales significantly for the first few months after its release.  The OLED model will do the same thing even if it ultimately proves unpopular.

Every indication shows that Switch sales for 2021 will be higher than 2020.  It doesn't matter how much people on the internet dislike Pokemon or the OLED model.  Both are going to significantly boost sales for the holiday quarter.



curl-6 bet me that PS5 + X|S sales would reach 56m before year end 2023 and he was right.
My Bet With curl-6

My Threads:
Master Thread, Game of the Year/Decade
Switch Will Be #1 All Time
Zelda Will Outsell Mario (Achieved)
How Much Will MH Rise sell?
My Bet With Metallox