I think Switch will outsell PS5 in December and make up for potentially losing October and November. But it's the last quarter where it beats PS5 in the US, and maybe the last holiday season it beats Series XS.
Looks like Switch surprisingly (if barely) lost to PS5 in global shipments for July-September despite dominating Japan, and now Nintendo revised their forecast from 21 million down to 19 million units for the end of the fiscal year. It's starting to feel that Switch 2 will come out a little bit sooner than some expectations and/or that Nintendo will suffer what Sony have and not be able to produce enough units for both Switch 1 and 2 (hopefully it won't be a half assed "Switch Pro"). COVID effects will mostly be gone by then so it shouldn't be as bad.
It's interesting how quickly this FY has shifted from looking like a dominant Nintendo year to Sony potentially managing a near-tie. Nintendo expect 19 million, Sony expect to beat their 18 million forecast. For Sony to succeed, they're going to have to comfortably beat Nintendo globally from here on out. On second thought, they may lose the holidays and reduce the gap with a very strong FYQ4.
I said the upcoming quarter will be the last where Nintendo beats Sony in the US, but it turns out Nintendo already lost the last quarter "globally", which is generally advantageous for Switch knowing Japan acts as a region for Nintendo vs a mere country for Sony.Last edited by Kyuu - on 08 November 2022