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Forums - Sales Discussion - June NPD 2021 thread

Since nobody has posted it yet, the best-guess estimates for June were posted a few days ago over at Era (as per Xevross):

NSW: <490k
XBS: >289k
PS5: 243-253k

While we don't know the SKU splits, I could see something like this producing the $401M HW revenue figure:

NSW: $127.4M (490k units @ $260/unit)
XBS: $135M (300k units @ $450/unit)
PS5: $117.8M (248k units @ $475/unit)
PS4+XBO: $21M (70k units @ $300/unit)

Total: $401.2M

Of course, the XBS may have been even higher than that, depending on what the SKU split for the 360 was in June 2011. As mentioned, if the average price per unit was $280, then at 507k units the 360 would have generated $142M in revenue, which would put the XBS at at least 315k assuming an average of $450/unit (a 3:1 split between the X and S). . So, we could also have something more like this:

NSW: $127.4M (490k units @ $260/unit)
XBS: $144M (320k units @ $450/unit)
PS5: $110.25M (245k units @ $450/unit)
PS4+XBO: $19.5M (65k units @ $300/unit)

Total: $401.15M

Also, Welfare gave his own estimates based on the results:

NSW: 477k
XBS: 310k
PS5: 250k

Assuming a 3:1 split in favor of the more expensive SKU of each system, that would give us revenue totals (rounded to the nearest $100k) of:

NSW: $131.2M
XBS: $139.5M
PS5: $118.75M

Total: $389.45M

Of course, that leaves a paltry $11.55M for the PS4 & XBO, and assuming they retailed for $300/unit on average, that would put their combined sales at less than 40k. Of course, we could nearly double that figure for the PS4+XBO if we drop the ARP for the Switch and PS5 from $275 to $260 and from $475 to $460, respectively.

Unfortunately, we've never been privy to SKU splits for U.S. sales like we usually see from Japan sales, so there's definitely going to be some margins of error associated with any of the above estimates. Still, the XBS is almost certainly at least 300k. The PS5 range seems pretty narrowed down, so if the XBO did do over 300k, the Switch may not have broken 500k unless the PS4 & XBO actually did do exceptionally poorly and/or a majority of the Switch's sales came from the Lite, though it's still almost certainly in the very high 400s.

Hopefully we get more accurate numbers down the line.

In any case, since we don't have exact figures, I'll just update my charts with the best guesses we have since I haven't updated them in a long time. Hopefully if we get the actual numbers at some point it won't nudge the data points more than a couple of pixels. I'll try to post them tomorrow, time permitting.

Last edited by Shadow1980 - on 06 August 2021

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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

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Shadow1980 said:

Since nobody has posted it yet, the best-guess estimates for June were posted a few days ago over at Era (as per Xevross):

NSW: >490k
XBS: >289k
PS5: 243-253k

While we don't know the SKU splits, I could see something like this producing the $401M HW revenue figure:

NSW: $127.4M (490k units @ $260/unit)
XBS: $135M (300k units @ $450/unit)
PS5: $117.8M (248k units @ $475/unit)
PS4+XBO: $21M (70k units @ $300/unit)

Total: $401.2M

Of course, the XBS may have been even higher than that, depending on what the SKU split for the 360 was in June 2011. As mentioned, if the average price per unit was $280, then at 507k units the 360 would have generated $142M in revenue, which would put the XBS at at least 315k assuming an average of $450/unit (a 3:1 split between the X and S). . So, we could also have something more like this:

NSW: $127.4M (490k units @ $260/unit)
XBS: $144M (320k units @ $450/unit)
PS5: $110.25M (245k units @ $450/unit)
PS4+XBO: $19.5M (65k units @ $300/unit)

Total: $401.15M

Also, Welfare gave his own estimates based on the results:

NSW: 477k
XBS: 310k
PS5: 250k

Assuming a 3:1 split in favor of the more expensive SKU of each system, that would give us revenue totals (rounded to the nearest $100k) of:

NSW: $131.2M
XBS: $139.5M
PS5: $118.75M

Total: $389.45M

Of course, that leaves a paltry $11.55M for the PS4 & XBO, and assuming they retailed for $300/unit on average, that would put their combined sales at less than 40k. Of course, we could nearly double that figure for the PS4+XBO if we drop the ARP for the Switch and PS5 from $275 to $260 and from $475 to $460, respectively.

Unfortunately, we've never been privy to SKU splits for U.S. sales like we usually see from Japan sales, so there's definitely going to be some margins of error associated with any of the above estimates. Still, the XBS is almost certainly at least 300k. The PS5 range seems pretty narrowed down, so if the XBO did do over 300k, the Switch may not have broken 500k unless the PS4 & XBO actually did do exceptionally poorly and/or a majority of the Switch's sales came from the Lite, though it's still almost certainly in the very high 400s.

Hopefully we get more accurate numbers down the line.

In any case, since we don't have exact figures, I'll just update my charts with the best guesses we have since I haven't updated them in a long time. Hopefully if we get the actual numbers at some point it won't nudge the data points more than a couple of pixels. I'll try to post them tomorrow, time permitting.

You mean Switch < 490k not >490k right?



Ryng said:

You mean Switch < 490k not >490k right?

Xevross' use of greater & less than threw me off. He posted:

Switch < 490k
243k < PS5 < 253k
289k < XBS

Which now that I think of it, he put the Switch's name before and the XBS's name after. So, "Switch less than 490k" and "289k less than XBS"?



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Shadow1980 said:
Ryng said:

You mean Switch < 490k not >490k right?

Xevross' use of greater & less than threw me off. He posted:

Switch < 490k
243k < PS5 < 253k
289k < XBS

Which now that I think of it, he put the Switch's name before and the XBS's name after. So, "Switch less than 490k" and "289k less than XBS"?

It's not about where the name of the console is but on what side of the arrow the number is. If the open side of the arrow is pointed at the number it means the number is greater than the unknown number. Switch < 490k means the Switch sold less than 490k and could also be turned around. 490k > Switch. The number 490k is bigger than what the Switch sold.

Is the pointed side of the arrow pointing towards the number it means that number is smaller than the unknown number. 289k < XBS might as well be XBS > 289k, means the XBS sold more than 289k.

Bold: so basically yes.



Sorry for the procrastination. It's Chart Time!

Unfortunately, I don't really have much in the way for PS5 & XBS charts at the moment (still haven't made weekly average charts yet, for example), so what I have will have to do for now. And since the numbers we do have aren't exact, there is a margin of error involved, though I imagine they probably aren't off by much more than 2-3%, or a few pixels on the charts. The charts will be updated with the actual numbers if and when we get them.

PS5 & XBS are doing well compared to their predecessors, despite the stock issues. Restocks definitely helped the XBS in June, propelling it to its best month of the year even in weekly average terms. Unfortunately, the stock situation is not yet at the point where we can tell how well the PS5 & XBS will compete with each other once stock is no longer a concern. As of mid-year, the PS5 is the clear leader overall for 2021, sitting at approximately 1.71M vs. 1.26M for the Series X|S, plus or minus several percentage points. If I had to guess, the PS5 will likely come out ahead for the year as a whole, but Xbox could make it close, especially if Halo Infinite does well and moves a decent amount of hardware (it does appear to be having a good reception after the technical test from a couple of weeks back). If I had to make a mid-year guess as to their 2021 totals, I'd say around 5M for the PS5 and 4.75M for the XBS, stock allowing.

The Switch continues to do remarkably well, outpacing every other system's Year 5 except for the DS. However, Q2 sales, which were approximately 1.37M (plus or minus several percentage points), were the lowest for a non-holiday quarter for the system since Q3 2019. It's not conclusive if the system is passing its peak, but if Q3 sales are less than Q2's, then that may indicate a slowdown. The OLED model could still result in Q4 sales comparable to last year even if Q2+Q3 sales are down from last year. If I had to make a mid-year prediction for the Switch's 2021 total, then I'd say somewhere between 8.3M and 8.5M.

Oof. That took longer than I thought, and it's not even as long as some of my other chart posts. I may only do these once in a while instead of every month.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").