Seems Hybrid Switch was up this Quarter and Lite sales declined to 26% of total sales, so your position from earlier in the thread seems to be incorrect @yo33331
I expect the same to happen with your expectation of OLED having minimal impact on sales, OLED in combination with Pokemon Remakes, Mario Party, SMT V, Wario, Metroid and other third party titles will ensure it can actually be up YoY in the final Quarter of the year where Nintendo makes the majority of its sales. Last year we had abnormally large sales during Q2+Q3 of the CY year due to New Horizon & COVID, things slowed down in Q4 - this year it's the other way around - most sales will be concentrated in Q1(Chinese new year; Bowsers Fury; MH Rise) & Q4(OLED, Remakes).
Q4 Shipments last year were only 11.57 million, while the rest of the year shipments were 15.82 million, usually hardware sales of Nintendo consoles in Q4 > Q1+Q2+Q3, so knowing that Q1 was 4.73 million & Q2 was 4.5 million we are looking at the best fall Quarter for the Switch so far, heading into next year where an Open World Pokemon, Splatoon 3 and Breath of the Wild sequel launch.
Also underestimating the amount of support Switch is receiving at the moment by Japanese third parties is definitely not something you seem to consider, next year with Splatoon 3 launching it will rejuvenate demand among the younger audience due to the amount of marketing Nintendo will give the title in Japan specifically. I wouldn't be surprised if it ends up eclipsing New Horizon as the biggest launch of a game in Japan so far, next year will the software peak in Japan which will ensure that Switch surpasses 4.5 million in it's 6th year on the market in Japan with just 25% of hardware coming from Japan(right now Japan is below 20%), we are still looking at a minimum 18 million. There is no reason to expect that Switch continues to dominate over 90% of the hardware and software market in Japan during 2022, which will have profound impacts on the amount of games PS5 will start loosing in its home country.
It's a self fulfilling prophecy but Japanese market and Japanese publishers shouldn't be underestimated as rest of East Asia will follow the trends we are seeing in Japan these past few years, in some markets like South Korea Nintendo actually enjoys an even larger piece of the pie. We've never seen one hardware maker enjoy such a dominance over such a large market in recent times, Japan gaming has gone back to 2014 levels but it's all concentrated on one platform. The top selling game on the PS5 this year Resident Evil: Village is under 100K copies, while Shin-chan is likely to end up outselling both the PS4/PS5 versions of the latest installment in the Resident Evil franchise in Japan... This facts shouldn't be overlooked
I simply have the opposite opinion to you and have laid out why.
In terms of Software 2020 < 2021 < 2022
Switch hardware will be at minimum 125 million at the end of the 2022
My position from earlier has only been 1, Switch sales are going down, and the peak of the system is behind it.
I have no opinions of lite units sold or japanese support .. what the ? why did you even think I have said something about that?
Also I have no opinion on the software sales front, it is normal to be very strong there, the system is nearly at 90M units sold, it will have strong software sales for at least another 2-3 years.
I am taking into account all, however switch is going down. We will talk again in october when OLED release, no problem.
And again after the holiday season, and again next year when Switch begin to do around 200k weekly, no problemo :)
Last edited by yo33331 - on 05 August 2021