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Forums - Sales Discussion - Global Hardware June 20-26 - Switch Sells 376K, PS5 Sells 226K, XS Sells 136K

SKMBlake said:

Oh okay, I understand, you took a very specific situation to extrapole to infinite and beyond.

Here are the facts: covid had a huge impact on production, video game sales were bigger than ever in 2020, and everybody gor their part of the cake.

But it was also the year where the 2 big companies decided to move to another generation, and with chip shortages and production issues, maintaining old gen production and starting new gen production was hard. 

There were consoles shortages everywhere, but Sony and MS decided to stop the production of multiple models to maximise production of new consoles. MS even stopped One X and One SAD production in summer 2020.

So, no, there is no "bigger drop than before", it's just a specific case based on a very specific situation.

Just as your "Switch is used 90% of the time as a handheld" stuff, your analysis is completely wrong.

And I don't understand your point on price cut, you stated earlier it wasn't effective as it was 10 years ago.

No, I stated earlier that the price cut is not being used as it was 10 years ago, because back then every console received 2-3 big price cuts in mostly the right moments. Now the consoles receive only 1 price cut in their life and that's it. They even don't receive one when their successor comes out.

About the other I have other examples which have not been in pandemic times, such as Wii drops, DS drops, PS3, 360. Those kind of drops have been seen very rarely before 2010s when consoles have died, and now they are seen more often on pretty much every console. And with the time passing they become bigger and bigger - PS3/360 than PS2 and the consoles before it, PS4/XB1 than PS3/360, and now Switch will have similar or bigger drops than Wii/DS

The pandemic had impact yes, switch had good games yes, those things helped, even more than the number of choices yes, that's why I am saying that Switch would have been down 3-5M if there were more choices for the consumers in 2020 and this year, not 10 or 20M. Every things combined helps switch reaching those almost 30M last year, and around 25M this year.

And about my statement, it was more like switch is being bought to be played primary as a handheld from 90% of the people more than actually being used, because one can buy switch for handheld use but sometimes decide to use and to try the option for home playing.

And no my analysis is not wrong. You will see next year how Switch will drop to around 15M for the year and how will drop probably below 10M the year after.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 14 July 2021

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yo33331 said:

First of all, those things about ratio are just statistics and can't prove anything. Because people change, and people die and people get born. The people have been in different point in their lives at every point for every different console. You can't just make an opinion based only on some ratio of software there is too much factors there. What games, what fans, what people - different ages, gender, different type (now there are many people that have already touched phones and phone games which have changed their opinions about whose game is what and so on and so on. It is more complicated than just because of the ratio they play more handheld or more home. Historically most of the successful nintendo consoles have been handheld. People remembered them with handheld. I work only with official information and researches not some ratio ones that only can make something on logic that is questionable. Give me real official information and statistics from nintendo they I will come and tell you " I am wrong, you've been right ". This ratio thing is not good enough.

Also for the switch okay, I am saying that something is gonna happen or nintendo will do a mistake and that will cost your projection of maybe 20-25M (I assume so from your words how switch is so special and great) for the next three years of the switch to go down to 15-10-5 or something like this.

About your reasons you gave, The 3DS was entirely Nintendo choice and Nintendo mistake. They were the leader they could wait. They didn't need to rush anything because of Sony. Also even if that was the case they could release 3DS a year later because Vita released worldwide in early 2012.

That type of mistake they can do now too. About Wii, this has nothing to do with Wii U because Wii U released in 2012, Wii began the huge drops from 2010 onwards.

About PS4 and your example that switch has games, well the PS4 also had big games in both 2019 and 2020, it even has some games now in 2021 that were the sackboy game (I forgot the name) and horizon 2 and spiderman miles morales. Also PS4 also have good third party support even now. However this doesn't stop it from going down. Because Sony didn't care. Neither are Nintendo. I mean they care of course for the system to do good performance overall but they don't care if they will finish 120, 140 or 160M. Just like every other manufacturer. And yes software sells hardware, however after it's saturation point this is no more the case. And switch where it is now at 90M, I can guarantee you that in 2022 every big game would have little to no effect on the console sales.

PS4 even had the chance to go to even 160M if Sony wanted. If they did the right moves. And it's not only the price cut .. However they choose not to. You can speak whatever you want but I've seen that when the right moves are done it is possible. See PS2. And see even DS.

None of your reasons are present for the switch but there are other reasons for the system to go down and I've already explained in my previous comments why I think so. (age of the system, saturation point, new exciting consoles that will be in full stock by next year, price of the system - which is the same as Series S and have not been changed since launch, and also I think that there is some chance they can announce their next console next year)

And thank you for the good luck. I don't need luck when I have knowledge and have educated marketing sales, and also have been looking through many consoles lifetime in sales, and also have been talking to many many customers for years on my work in the game store, which helped me understand how the big part of the mass consumer thinks. Of course this is just a prediction and I could end up wrong for the number - 15M (or close to it) However I surely won't be wrong about Switch demise beginning next year.

Also please stop comparing me to some users what have they talked or that before 2-3 years there were many people that have said switch will fall of a cliff.

I am not everybody and I have never said that before, because I know this wasn't true. But now we are in it's 5th year and it's normal for one aged system to go down, and you can repeat this many times but eventually every system go down. And switch will not be strong for 10 years. So it's time is coming and for once the saying will be true. The mistake of many people have been that they are saying it would fall of a cliff in it's second or third year which is insane to say.

Also I am not saying it would fall of a cliff because there is something wrong with the system, but because in the last 10-15 years pretty much every console when it's dying is falling very fast, that is the way they are going down now. Before wasn't so, but since PS3/360 generation this trend has began. I don't like it but it is a fact. I think it is because of the smartphones. Because of them people have learned to change the tech faster, and to upgrade faster in general. So I am not bashing Switch or something, just I am prediction that it's gonna happen what happened with pretty much every console in the last decade or so. And you all think Switch because of the reason that you like it or maybe because it's going strong now will be the only one of a kind console out of all to have steepiest decline and to broke everything everyone and to do 200M lifetime. Ha-ha. Dream. Not gonna happen. Not beating DS and PS2 either. Only because is peaking now and there will be some more 3-4-5 big games doesn't mean that it will break records lifetime. Nothing is impossible, but my prediction is it won't do it.

Switch's tie ratio is as official as it gets. The reason why home consoles have had notably higher tie ratios than handhelds is because the vast majority of playtime happens at home, so people have the choice which kind of console they want to play. Most gamers prefer the big screen and it's no surprise that a console that is being played more will have more games purchased for it. This is why we can derive from Switch's tie ratio how this hybrid console is being used. Since there are so many games purchased for it, it's safe to conclude that Switch is being used like a home console by much more than 10% of its owners like you assert.

As for your knowledge, your entire track record on this site are your PS4 lifetime predictions that were way off, so you aren't someone who will be given the benefit of the doubt. Likewise, your conversations with customers in store don't count for anything either when your conclusions regarding Switch usage are so strongly contradicted by the console's tie ratio. Anecdotes have nowhere near the same value as official data.

The reason why PS consoles have dropped off faster during the past decade is the very same that has been explained to you plenty of times during your "PS4 will sell more than 140m units" claims. Without staggered launch timings for different regions and countries like in the past, PS sales on the whole became more frontloaded, so there simply wasn't as much to gain on the backend anymore like during the PS1 and PS2 days. It has nothing to do with smartphones.

In any case, for the people arguing against you it is ultimately a simple matter of leaning back and waiting, so there's little value in getting involved in longwinded arguments.



Legend11 correctly predicted that GTA IV (360+PS3) would outsell SSBB. I was wrong.

A Biased Review Reloaded / Open Your Eyes / Switch Shipments

RolStoppable said:

Switch's tie ratio is as official as it gets. The reason why home consoles have had notably higher tie ratios than handhelds is because the vast majority of playtime happens at home, so people have the choice which kind of console they want to play. Most gamers prefer the big screen and it's no surprise that a console that is being played more will have more games purchased for it. This is why we can derive from Switch's tie ratio how this hybrid console is being used. Since there are so many games purchased for it, it's safe to conclude that Switch is being used like a home console by much more than 10% of its owners like you assert.

As for your knowledge, your entire track record on this site are your PS4 lifetime predictions that were way off, so you aren't someone who will be given the benefit of the doubt. Likewise, your conversations with customers in store don't count for anything either when your conclusions regarding Switch usage are so strongly contradicted by the console's tie ratio. Anecdotes have nowhere near the same value as official data.

The reason why PS consoles have dropped off faster during the past decade is the very same that has been explained to you plenty of times during your "PS4 will sell more than 140m units" claims. Without staggered launch timings for different regions and countries like in the past, PS sales on the whole became more frontloaded, so there simply wasn't as much to gain on the backend anymore like during the PS1 and PS2 days. It has nothing to do with smartphones.

In any case, for the people arguing against you it is ultimately a simple matter of leaning back and waiting, so there's little value in getting involved in longwinded arguments.

For the tie ratio, okay, then the switch players are just playing more on it outside. It is not needed to be always in home to buy new games for your console.

Also I don't need to be active for 15 years here to have good knowledge on different type of things or sales. And my track record on this site is more than just making PS4 predictions in the past. I've been reading many articles charts comparisons and topics since 2011 here, and also have sometimes commented on things related to XBOX as well. Also recently I began comparison thread for year on year, console vs console. And I will continue doing it and making it better and more interesting for the future, maybe adding new comparisons or consoles, different combinations.

But really I don't know why everyone has to have some track record that you like here for him to have the right to express his opinion or prediction/thoughts about some consoles, or it's sales projection or whatever it is. Everyone can make his own prediction or thoughts and no one is required to give his reasons. 

My statement for the % of home and handheld use of switch is totally different thing than my prediction, and it does not have to be connected. I am giving my prediction and that's it. If it happen I will be right and all of you wrong. No and or buts. If it doesn't happen I will come out and say that I've been wrong.

I am not requiring anyone to take my prediction heavily. Do as you like. Everyone has brain and it have to have the ability to think. This is just saying my opinion and giving my prediction like everyone else. Mine is different big deal. Others are different too, just are higher numbers than what I am giving.

The reason PS4 didn't reach what I was going to sell was because of Sony not emerging markets or anything like that. And even then I've told in the past also that if they don't do price cut and stop all the support then PS4 won't reach 140M, even 130M, I was giving 120M as the bare minimum, and it looks like I've been only 2-3M off. The things happened in the way they happened because Sony just didn't care and didn't do anything about, not even giving full stock for the system.

Also almost no one would've give PS4 lifetime sales projection of only 118M like it's what will finish like. So everyone have been wrong about the PS4. Because even the worst predictions here were for around 120-125M. So from your logic no one here have to receive the benefit of the doubt and everyone here things wrong because no one could've predicted the fast death and the big drops of PS4. No one. Not even the haters or the worse prediction were giving PS4 8M in 2020 and 2M for this year. So you can see by that that my prediction was normal and okay based on the situation at the moment. There were many more peoples like me back then that were prediction 130-140M and even decent number of people also giving the possibility of PS4 passing 140M. So here you are not only telling how wrong have I been but also everyone who made predictions about the PS4 as well and making it like because of wrong prediction that no one could've predicted right, those people are not valuable or relevant to have the right of making new predictions and be taken serious or what ?

So my reasons and predictions were fully true and valid if Sony were to give the PS4 full stock at all times like it have to be along with 100$ like it was done for the consoles before last 2 generations. However they didn't.

So no, I have not been wrong before, I clearly said that if they don't do the normal things that every manufacturer should and most of them have done in the past PS4 wouldn't go much after 120M. I was just doubting they will abandon the system like they really did.

For smartphones I am not saying that it is connected directly, but I am just giving an example, because of tech like smartphones and not only smartphones, people in general have learned in the last 10 years to change and to upgrade much faster than they've done before.

I am the one who will lean back and wait for 2022, and to see what most of switch defenders will tell then, and what reason will they make up for the dropping under 20M for the year. The only thing that can stop that from happening is price cut.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 15 July 2021

yo33331 said:

For the tie ratio, okay, then the switch players are just playing more on it outside. It is not needed to be always in home to buy new games for your console.

Also I don't need to be active for 15 years here to have good knowledge on different type of things or sales. And my track record on this site is more than just making PS4 predictions in the past. I've been reading many articles charts comparisons and topics since 2011 here, and also have sometimes commented on things related to XBOX as well. Also recently I began different comparison like yours for year on year, console vs console. And I will continue doing it and making it better and more interesting for the future, maybe adding new comparisons or consoles, different combinations.

But really I don't know why everyone has to have some track record that you like here for him to have the right to express his opinion or prediction/thoughts about some consoles, or it's sales projection or whatever it is. Everyone can make his own prediction or thoughts and no one is required to give his reasons. 

My statement for the % of home and handheld use of switch is totally different thing than my prediction, and it does not have to be connected. I am giving my prediction and that's it. If it happen I will be right and all of you wrong. No and or buts. If it doesn't happen I will come out and say that I've been wrong.

I am not requiring anyone to take my prediction heavily. Do as you like. Everyone has brain and it have to have the ability to think. This is just saying my opinion and giving my prediction like everyone else. Mine is different big deal. Others are different too, just are higher numbers than what I am giving.

The reason PS4 didn't reach what I was going to sell was because of Sony not emerging markets or anything like that. And even then I've told in the past also that if they don't do price cut and stop all the support then PS4 won't reach 140M, even 130M, I was giving 120M as the bare minimum, and it looks like I've been only 2-3M off. The things happened in the way they happened because Sony just didn't care and didn't do anything about, not even giving full stock for the system.

Also almost no one would've give PS4 lifetime sales projection of only 118M like it's what will finish like. So everyone have been wrong about the PS4. Because even the worst predictions here were for around 120-125M. So from your logic no one here have to receive the benefit of the doubt and everyone here things wrong because no one could've predicted the fast death and the big drops of PS4. No one. Not even the haters or the worse prediction were giving PS4 8M in 2020 and 2M for this year. So you can see by that that my prediction was normal and okay based on the situation at the moment. There were many more peoples like me back then that were prediction 130-140M and even decent number of people also giving the possibility of PS4 passing 140M. So here you are not only telling how wrong have I been but also everyone who made predictions about the PS4 as well and making it like because of wrong prediction that no one could've predicted right, those people are not valuable or relevant to have the right of making new predictions and be taken serious or what ?

So my reasons and predictions were fully true and valid if Sony were to give the PS4 full stock at all times like it have to be along with 100$ like it was done for the consoles before last 2 generations. However they didn't.

So no, I have not been wrong before, I clearly said that if they don't do the normal things that every manufacturer should and most of them have done in the past PS4 wouldn't go much after 120M. I was just doubting they will abandon the system like they really did.

For smartphones I am not saying that it is connected directly, but I am just giving an example, because of tech like smartphones and not only smartphones, people in general have learned in the last 10 years to change and to upgrade much faster than they've done before.

I am the one who will lean back and wait for 2022, and to see what most of switch defenders will tell then, and what reason will they make up for the dropping under 20M for the year. The only thing that can stop that from happening is price cut.

Who's to say that it won't?  Switch hasn't even had its first price cut yet, and has been on sale for over 4 years.  The PS4 had 2 price cuts within its first 3 years.  So, it's not unfathomable that the Switch would get a price cut eventually.  So are you now saying that if the Switch does get its 1st price cut, then you don't doubt that it will sell over 20m in 2022?



Mandalore76 said:

Who's to say that it won't?  Switch hasn't even had its first price cut yet, and has been on sale for over 4 years.  The PS4 had 2 price cuts within its first 3 years.  So, it's not unfathomable that the Switch would get a price cut eventually.  So are you now saying that if the Switch does get its 1st price cut, then you don't doubt that it will sell over 20m in 2022?

Either price cut or Pro model releasing. Yes, if one of those things happen then I can see switch hitting around 20M in 2022 maybe 22M at best.

Also if for some reason the problem with the stock of the new consoles is still present in 2022, and they don't get enough of stock for the demand, then it's also possible for switch to reach around 20M. But I think that problem should be fixed by then.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 14 July 2021

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yo33331 said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

So do you actually agree and understand Switch usage split is closer to 50-50 handheld and home console instead of your 90-10 claim? 🤔

no I don't agree, however this is whole different topic that I have no interest in continue arguing about. Cuz for this we don't have official information.

If Nintendo comes out and say official statistics then I will be interested. And for that if I am wrong okay. But I doubt it. It may not be exactly 90-10, I was speaking roughtly, it may be 80-20 or 85-15, however something like this. If it is 50-50 then again, I have no problem to say I have been wrong.

Rick, 

The only official information we have you keep disregarding.  Don't proclaim your own guess as fact and then tell others their guesses are wrong based on the fact we don't have newer official information.  You can't have your cake and eat it too.  Your mother will be taking away dessert after dinner until you learn to stop using faulty logic.

-Dad.



yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

Switch and PS4 both sold well in 2017-2018, DS, Wii, 360, PS3, and PSP all sold well alongside each other in different combinations throughout the 7th gen, GBA sold well alongside PS2, Gameboy sold well alongside NES, SNES, and PS1. As a vastly different product, Switch doesn't directly compete with XS/PS5 so I do not see the rise of these systems as having a significant impact on Switch sales, just as sales of a motorbike wouldn't be affected by the release of a new family car.

Yes, well.. not insane numbers coming from every console, only from one at a time.

Switch making 15M next year is very good number, just not insane.

PS4 and switch in 2017-2018, PS4 was making the best out of it's years, and switch was doing just mediocre numbers compared to now.

DS WII were the consoles that were making the insane numbers, PS3 360 and PSP at that time were making just Okay numbers, not insane, and 360 and PS3 not their strongest. They did their strongest numbers when DS and Wii began to drop. PSP was making mediocre numbers all life.

GBA wasn't doing insane numbers, just okay ones. NES SNES also weren't doing insane. Gameboy was doing OKAY.

This is what I am trying to see. Not that the systems sell bad with other one selling great, just not showing their full potential at the same time.

There is no point in time where the one system was doing insane at it's peak, and the other ones too.

Wii and DS only, and that's because one is purely handheld other one is purely home console. And even the Wii was selling not more like traditional home console for home hardcore gaming but more of a casual system to play mom and dads and grandpa with children.

Your example with the cars and motorbikes is not relevant here because there are hundreds of models and manufacturers of cars and motorbikes, and only 3 manufacturers of consoles releasing 1 console per 6-7 years.

No offense, but calling a PSP sales "mediocre all life" when it sold over 80 million, GBA sales "just okay" when it sold over 80 million, and Gameboy just "okay" when its the third highest selling gaming platform of all time just comes off as you downplaying the numbers when they don't support your theory.

Switch rising as PS4 fell can easily be accounted for by their relative age, not direct competition, same for Switch vs PS5 going forwards.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 14 July 2021

Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

No offense, but calling a PSP sales "mediocre all life" when it sold over 80 million, GBA sales "just okay" when it sold over 80 million, and Gameboy just "okay" when its the third highest selling gaming platform of all time just comes off as you downplaying the numbers when they don't support your theory.

Switch rising as PS4 fell can easily be accounted for by their relative age, not direct competition, same for Switch vs PS5 going forwards.

No, I mean just okay in comparison to 30M for a year that switch is making or the 30M or 25M that DS and WII did. I am talking for insane numbers like those.

And also yes, 80M lifetime it is good, okay sales. Nothing more. But I was talking primary for sales per year in comparison with what other consoles are making.

And PSP haven't done 20M a year. And leave the numbers alone, there were not point in time where all the consoles selling very good and doing similar number.

For any of the examples always the one console is way way up than the others. That is what I am trying to tell. There have not been a case yet where all 3 or 4 present consoles have been all with very good numbers selling at the same time making numbers on one level. Always for the one to be on top others have to be way down. Never the peak periods of the consoles meat let's say it in this way, because always if the one is in it's peak the other will be in not it's best form. (no weak sales performing consoles included.)

And yes whatever the reason it can be, however never has the same strong period at the same time for consoles. Therefore PS5 and XB began to rise and making high numbers if they have full stock by next year, this will reflect on switch sales. If the one consoles is at strong period the other is at medium period in it's life.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 14 July 2021

yo33331 said:
curl-6 said:

No offense, but calling a PSP sales "mediocre all life" when it sold over 80 million, GBA sales "just okay" when it sold over 80 million, and Gameboy just "okay" when its the third highest selling gaming platform of all time just comes off as you downplaying the numbers when they don't support your theory.

Switch rising as PS4 fell can easily be accounted for by their relative age, not direct competition, same for Switch vs PS5 going forwards.

No, I mean just okay in comparison to 30M for a year that switch is making or the 30M or 25M that DS and WII did. I am talking for insane numbers like those.

And also yes, 80M lifetime it is good, okay sales. Nothing more. But I was talking primary for sales per year in comparison with what other consoles are making.

And PSP haven't done 20M a year. And leave the numbers alone, there were not point in time where all the consoles selling very good and doing similar number.

For any of the examples always the one console is way way up than the others. That is what I am trying to tell. There have not been a case yet where all 3 or 4 present consoles have been all with very good numbers selling at the same time making numbers on one level. Always for the one to be on top others have to be way down. Never the peak periods of the consoles meat let's say it in this way, because always if the one is in it's peak the other will be in not it's best form. (no weak sales performing consoles included.)

Your bar for good sales is unrealistically high. Very few consoles in history have ever hit 20 million plus in a year, and only 11 systems in the history of gaming have ever sold over 80 million.

But even by those standards, Wii and DS pulled insane numbers side by side. Because as very different devices they didn't directly compete, just like Switch and PS/Xbox don't.



Bet with Liquidlaser: I say PS5 and Xbox Series will sell more than 56 million combined by the end of 2023.

curl-6 said:

Your bar for good sales is unrealistically high. Very few consoles in history have ever hit 20 million plus in a year, and only 11 systems in the history of gaming have ever sold over 80 million.

But even by those standards, Wii and DS pulled insane numbers side by side. Because as very different devices they didn't directly compete, just like Switch and PS/Xbox don't.

PSP, GBA , GAMEBOY did very good sales overall. I am just talking purely about reaching high year sales. And they did their best years. Okay forget that example if you want, it wasn't the best one. Here is another one.

Just imagine some pie. If the one console get's bigger slice the other consoles get's smaller. It can still be okay sized one, but it is way smaller than the bigger slice.

Switch have been taking one very big slice in the last 2 years. And next year when PS5 and XBOX take big slices because of their stock going in full, this giant slice that switch have been taken last 2 years will become just big or medium if you want - 15M is still a good number for a year. The only case this is not gonna happen will be if Switch gets price cut or they release Pro model. Then switch may finish at 20M.

Wii and DS were the only example 2 consoles have sold best at the same time. And that was because one was handheld other one was home and they both hit their peak years back in 2007/2008. Switch is a hybrid and had already hit it's peak years, and PS5 and XB are now rising. Everytime when some console comes out and start to rise the other that is/was on top goes down at some medium level. It can't happen for next year the switch to be 25M PS5 to be 20M and XBOX to be 15M. It's too much. Also other thing for DS and Wii is that they were both cheap and many people were able to buy them both. So many owner of those consoles own both. Whereas PS and XBOX when launching are way expensive than 200$. So less people could afford to buy both the PS and the Switch. So they have to make a choice. The one or the other. This is making the difference here. Big chunk of those DS/Wii owner have just bought both of them.

For all of the example I can give with one console peaking the other dropping, you can give me reason why it happened. I don't argue. There are always reasons. However is it true ? it's true. And it will continue to be true. When the one is it's best form or close to it, others are either weak or good selling, but not very good.

Last edited by yo33331 - on 14 July 2021