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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or neither?

 

Will Switch outsell PS2 and/or DS?

Yes, it will outsell PS2's (~159Million) 99 57.23%
 
Will outsell the DS, but not the PS2 74 42.77%
 
Switch will fall short of both DS & PS2 0 0%
 
Total:173

The PS2 dominated its three home console competitors in a way that is rarely seen, even knocking one of them out of the game in 2001 as the other two were arriving.

Switch may be in a blue ocean, but it doesn't have that dominance. PS4 and Xbox One were about halfway done when Switch launched, and now we have their successors. It's kind of an apples to oranges situation, but there's still a slight effect.

I don't see Nintendo screwing up the launch and first year of the Switch's successor, which will also cut down on Switch sales.

My more generous estimates for the Switch are 140-145 million lifetime. I would say it's well over the halfway point by now.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 151 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 57 million (was 60 million, then 67 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

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Wman1996 said:

It's kind of an apples to oranges situation, but there's still a slight effect.

The slight effect is in favor of Nintendo actually. Cause currently we have absolute dominance by Nintendo which seems nowhere to slow down



ninjapirate42 said:

So many factors here, but it certainly has a shot. But without knowing what Nintendo's plans are for a new console and the timing of it are the big questions here.
Also, if they released a Switch Pro which was just an upgraded Switch and not a new system that would certainly help to drive up sales (and to cause many people to double dip for the better system who already owned a previous version).

I will go ahead and guess that it will beat it, since I have to guess something :)

I think that you hit the nail on the head.

If Nintendo ends up releasing a Switch Pro that has all the bells and whistles that we are hoping for such as DLSS and a significantly improved screen, then there is no question that 150M will be easily passed by the Switch and I even believe that 200M is realistic target.  That bigger question we need to ask as a community in this case, though, is whether this counts as a new console or is a refresh similar to what the New 3DS was.  Is backwards compatibility and a similar name and form factor enough to consider two pieces of hardware to be the same console generation even if the hardware capabilities are radically different?  The New3DS was not that much faster than the 3DS and a lot of people who had a 3DS did not re-purchase a New 3DS, but if the Switch Pro ends up using DLSS and is capable of 4K resolution then this puts it in new generation ballpark and a lot of people are going to want to have both models.

The question here comes down to a logistical one.  The momentum that the Switch currently has will land it somewhere close to 150M assuming that Nintendo does absolutely nothing in terms of hardware releases over the next 5 years, but this is highly unlikely in my opinion.  If Nintendo releases a vastly improved Switch pro in the next 1-2 years, then this will decimate the original Switch sales (maybe it peaks at 110-130M) but the new model is probably going to explode, especially if it is good as the rumors are suggesting right now.  In this case, it will come down to whether we consider the new Switch model a part of the original Switch generation.  In my opinion, if a ton of people are rebuying the Switch Pro for the radical enhancements it has then it doesn't seem fair to Microsoft and Sony in the console wars to continue adding up Switch sales.



Illusion said:

If Nintendo releases a vastly improved Switch pro in the next 1-2 years, then this will decimate the original Switch sales

Don't think so, it didn't happen with PS4 Pro nor Xbox One X (counted for 1/5 of total sales of the consoles after their release).

But we also need to remind that, between all 4 iterations of the Nintendo DS, only the 2nd one, the Lite, sold very well (93 million units), the other one selling good/great (20-30 million) but not that much. So I believe the original Switch will remain the best selling model overall. 

The regular Switch is currently at 66 million vs 13 million for the Switch Lite, I can def see the first one reaching 90 million and the second one 20 million, making it already 111 million without any revision



Darwinianevolution said:
Matsku said:

There's going to be a Mario kart 9 on Switch and Pokémon Legends will sell Unit's also I think there are more 3rd party exclusive Unit sellers still to come. For example, Shin Megami Tensei V will sell Units in Japan and rest of world. So I don't fully agree with your software point.

SKMBlake said:

Yes, and no.

We didn't get another 3D Mario (neither the Super Mario 3D All Stars collection nor 3D World and Bowser's Fury is "another 3D Mario") so there is still room for this to happen. And we al know what "3D Mario" means, it means 10+ million sales, 97 on Metacritic, an redefining what a great game it is. We didn't get this since Super Mario Odyssey, and I am still hoping for Odyssey 2, just like Super Mario Galaxy 2 was way superior to Galaxy 1.

And we'll get an open world Pokémon game, which is requested by the fans for ages.

And Splatoon 3 was anounced 2 months ago, so I don't understand your point about Splatoon 2.

And regarding Zelda games, we have a second one coming, aslo anounced.

And Metroid Prime 4 of course, and Bayonetta 3.

And I still believe Mario Kart 9 will happen. Not now, since the sales momentum is tremendous, but at some point.

But at a certain point we're going to get diminishing returns. People who might buy MK9 probably already bought a Switch for MK8, people who might buy Splatoon 3 already bought a Switch for Splatoon 2, people who might buy Zelda BotW 2 already bought a Switch for BotW, and so on. They will move hardware, sure, but there's a long road to 150m units, and I'm not sure if this will be enough to get there. Games like Pikmin, Metroid, Bayonetta... will sell well, but they aren't traditional system sellers.

And as for 3rd party, most of them are going to focus more on the PS5/XBoxX. They've had four years to bring big titles to the Switch, and yet there haven't been that many big projects coming. Monster Hunter was obvious because it sells the best on handhelds and the Switch is the only non-mobile handheld around, but other than that? Either PS360 ports (and even then you'd think we would've gotten way more of those), general multiplats like Minecraft, Just Dance, Fifa... or relatively small projects like Octopath Traveller. It would be weird for them to now of all times focus on the Switch, when the new consoles are starving for content. It's unlikely that any 3rd party project will become a major system seller, especially now that the userbase is already above +80m.

Wasn't Monster Hunter: World the best selling Monster Hunter game?  And wasn't that home console/PC only?



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Illusion said:
ninjapirate42 said:

So many factors here, but it certainly has a shot. But without knowing what Nintendo's plans are for a new console and the timing of it are the big questions here.
Also, if they released a Switch Pro which was just an upgraded Switch and not a new system that would certainly help to drive up sales (and to cause many people to double dip for the better system who already owned a previous version).

I will go ahead and guess that it will beat it, since I have to guess something :)

I think that you hit the nail on the head.

If Nintendo ends up releasing a Switch Pro that has all the bells and whistles that we are hoping for such as DLSS and a significantly improved screen, then there is no question that 150M will be easily passed by the Switch and I even believe that 200M is realistic target.  That bigger question we need to ask as a community in this case, though, is whether this counts as a new console or is a refresh similar to what the New 3DS was.  Is backwards compatibility and a similar name and form factor enough to consider two pieces of hardware to be the same console generation even if the hardware capabilities are radically different?  The New3DS was not that much faster than the 3DS and a lot of people who had a 3DS did not re-purchase a New 3DS, but if the Switch Pro ends up using DLSS and is capable of 4K resolution then this puts it in new generation ballpark and a lot of people are going to want to have both models.

The question here comes down to a logistical one.  The momentum that the Switch currently has will land it somewhere close to 150M assuming that Nintendo does absolutely nothing in terms of hardware releases over the next 5 years, but this is highly unlikely in my opinion.  If Nintendo releases a vastly improved Switch pro in the next 1-2 years, then this will decimate the original Switch sales (maybe it peaks at 110-130M) but the new model is probably going to explode, especially if it is good as the rumors are suggesting right now.  In this case, it will come down to whether we consider the new Switch model a part of the original Switch generation.  In my opinion, if a ton of people are rebuying the Switch Pro for the radical enhancements it has then it doesn't seem fair to Microsoft and Sony in the console wars to continue adding up Switch sales.

It will be closer to 160m in the next four years, not 150m in 5 years. After 4 years it will be well over 80m units and gaining momentum/peaking. The next two years will easily sell over 25m+ each year, so another 50m+, that brings it to over 130m units in 6 years. It would literally have to stop all production at that point to not reach 160m+ units.

EDIT: Let's not forget that price cuts are still an option to boost sales as well. It's selling these crazy numbers while keeping it's original MSRP, PS4 cut it's price less than 2 years into it's lifecycle (released 11/2013, first price cut was 10/2015 in the US. In Japan it released 2/2014 and first price cut was 10/2015). PS2 did massive price cuts early in it's lifecycle as well, dropped $100 in less than 2 years. https://vgsales.fandom.com/wiki/Price_cuts

Last edited by scottslater - on 23 April 2021

Nintendo with the Switch:

Slownenberg said:
Matsku said:

If the revision has dlss like the rumors are saying that could be what brings high tech games. Furkawa wiewing Sony and Microsoft as competition also supports a big upgrade coming.

Well yeah I'm assuming the rumors are correct and that it'll use DLSS to do 4k docked. But that doesn't mean Nintendo is going to go with this strategy that I laid out. I doubt that is the plan, as it'd also split the library and stuff and it'd be confusing, but I'm just saying if they did pursue that and some how found a way to make it successful that's the only thing I could see leading to an extending of the Switch lifecycle well beyond 2024 and allowing it to beat PS2 numbers. I'm guessing it'll just be a standard upgrade that Nintendo always puts out and it won't change their whole strategy for the Switch. The upgraded Switch would probably need to be like $400 to have the power boost needed to create a "Switch 1.5" type device that can more readily graphically handle PS4/XB1 level games.

I think just dlss and a small upgrade in power would be enough for Nintendo to get most of the games Ps4 and Xbone will be getting.



SKMBlake said:

Don't think so, it didn't happen with PS4 Pro nor Xbox One X (counted for 1/5 of total sales of the consoles after their release).

But we also need to remind that, between all 4 iterations of the Nintendo DS, only the 2nd one, the Lite, sold very well (93 million units), the other one selling good/great (20-30 million) but not that much. So I believe the original Switch will remain the best selling model overall. 

The regular Switch is currently at 66 million vs 13 million for the Switch Lite, I can def see the first one reaching 90 million and the second one 20 million, making it already 111 million without any revision

Yeah, but if the Switch Pro is DLSS with a 4K screen, this won't be like the DS to DSL or 3DS to New 3DS.  This will be like a new console generation and Nintendo is going to want to push people to the newer model since the games getting released for the Switch Pro (e.g. BotW2) are going to look really ugly on the old Switch assuming that there even will be backwards compatibility.  Maybe the rumors are wrong and the new Switch is not a major hardware upgrade, in which case I will say that you are right.  But if the hardware is being overhauled the way that we are hearing, then Nintendo is going to want to push people to the new platform. 



Mandalore76 said:
Darwinianevolution said:

SKMBlake said:

Yes, and no.

We didn't get another 3D Mario (neither the Super Mario 3D All Stars collection nor 3D World and Bowser's Fury is "another 3D Mario") so there is still room for this to happen. And we al know what "3D Mario" means, it means 10+ million sales, 97 on Metacritic, an redefining what a great game it is. We didn't get this since Super Mario Odyssey, and I am still hoping for Odyssey 2, just like Super Mario Galaxy 2 was way superior to Galaxy 1.

And we'll get an open world Pokémon game, which is requested by the fans for ages.

And Splatoon 3 was anounced 2 months ago, so I don't understand your point about Splatoon 2.

And regarding Zelda games, we have a second one coming, aslo anounced.

And Metroid Prime 4 of course, and Bayonetta 3.

And I still believe Mario Kart 9 will happen. Not now, since the sales momentum is tremendous, but at some point.

But at a certain point we're going to get diminishing returns. People who might buy MK9 probably already bought a Switch for MK8, people who might buy Splatoon 3 already bought a Switch for Splatoon 2, people who might buy Zelda BotW 2 already bought a Switch for BotW, and so on. They will move hardware, sure, but there's a long road to 150m units, and I'm not sure if this will be enough to get there. Games like Pikmin, Metroid, Bayonetta... will sell well, but they aren't traditional system sellers.

And as for 3rd party, most of them are going to focus more on the PS5/XBoxX. They've had four years to bring big titles to the Switch, and yet there haven't been that many big projects coming. Monster Hunter was obvious because it sells the best on handhelds and the Switch is the only non-mobile handheld around, but other than that? Either PS360 ports (and even then you'd think we would've gotten way more of those), general multiplats like Minecraft, Just Dance, Fifa... or relatively small projects like Octopath Traveller. It would be weird for them to now of all times focus on the Switch, when the new consoles are starving for content. It's unlikely that any 3rd party project will become a major system seller, especially now that the userbase is already above +80m.

Wasn't Monster Hunter: World the best selling Monster Hunter game?  And wasn't that home console/PC only?

MH World was a multiplat of a single version of the game, whereas the handheld ones are usually exclusives and have multiple revisions. The PSP Monster Hunter games sold more than MHW on the PS4 or the PC.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

Come join The 2018 Obscure Game Monthly Review Thread.

Illusion said:
SKMBlake said:

Don't think so, it didn't happen with PS4 Pro nor Xbox One X (counted for 1/5 of total sales of the consoles after their release).

But we also need to remind that, between all 4 iterations of the Nintendo DS, only the 2nd one, the Lite, sold very well (93 million units), the other one selling good/great (20-30 million) but not that much. So I believe the original Switch will remain the best selling model overall. 

The regular Switch is currently at 66 million vs 13 million for the Switch Lite, I can def see the first one reaching 90 million and the second one 20 million, making it already 111 million without any revision

Yeah, but if the Switch Pro is DLSS with a 4K screen, this won't be like the DS to DSL or 3DS to New 3DS.  This will be like a new console generation and Nintendo is going to want to push people to the newer model since the games getting released for the Switch Pro (e.g. BotW2) are going to look really ugly on the old Switch assuming that there even will be backwards compatibility.  Maybe the rumors are wrong and the new Switch is not a major hardware upgrade, in which case I will say that you are right.  But if the hardware is being overhauled the way that we are hearing, then Nintendo is going to want to push people to the new platform. 

The Xbox One X was like 6x more powerful than the Xbox One S but they were both still in the same generation, so not necessarily.