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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Switch outsell PS2?

 

Will Switch outsell PS2?

Yes 95 56.55%
 
No 73 43.45%
 
Total:168

At this moment i think not, 150m tops but things could easily change and by this time next year things will become plainer. If it is still going strong, by say January/Feb next year, then definitely it could have the potential to do so.



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Yes.

Here's what we know about the foreseeable future:

1. LTD shipments were close to 80m by the end of 2020. 2021 is on pace to be another big year and there are strong rumors about a substantial Switch revision coming in the second half of this year, so it would be shocking if LTD shipments by the end of 2021 couldn't hit 105m or more.

2. Nintendo has already announced two major games for 2022: Pokémon Legends: Arceus and Splatoon 3. This is something we haven't seen since the NES, that a Nintendo console receives something so big from an in-house development team (Splatoon 3) in its sixth year on the market. Combine this with the continued strong third party support and it's inevitable that the momentum for Switch will remain strong throughout 2022. This will put LTD shipments by the end of 2022 in the area of 130m already.

From there it isn't a long road to beat the PS2 anymore. All it would take is another full year of commitment by Nintendo, so the year 2023, for Switch to stay on a sales trajectory to beat the PS2 for sure. 2023 would be the time for another Switch revision of some kind to bolster sales, nevermind all the pricing options that Nintendo has left.

If Nintendo leaves it up to the market to decide when the time for a Switch successor is, then Switch is poised to become the best-selling console of all-time, because there are still so many options for Nintendo to prolong the lifecycle of Switch. In order to fall short of the PS2, Nintendo would have to initiate self-destructive moves, such as preparing for the launch of the Switch successor in 2023 which makes no sense whatsoever when Switch's sales momentum is considered. It would also go against everything they've been telling investors for the past few years.



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Matsku said:
Darwinianevolution said:

It's going to be difficult. No doubt it's going to beat the Wii and the Game Boy, but reaching the +150m threshold is something completely different. For that to happen the Switch needs either a very long lifespan or a massive software output that keep the numbers going high. In regards to the lifespan, we could still see a couple of revisions to keep the numbers going (a cheap home console only version would sell well, a Pro version is more difficult but not impossible). And software-wise, the fact that Nintendo can concentrate on a single platform for the first time since the NES days is helping, but most of the heavy hitters are already out. Mario Kart, Smash, two 3D Marios, Pokemon, Splatoon (soon to be 2), multiple Zelda games, Animal Crossing... There are some things still left, but most of the console sellers are already out.

There's going to be a Mario kart 9 on Switch and Pokémon Legends will sell Unit's also I think there are more 3rd party exclusive Unit sellers still to come. For example, Shin Megami Tensei V will sell Units in Japan and rest of world. So I don't fully agree with your software point.

SKMBlake said:
Darwinianevolution said:

It's going to be difficult. No doubt it's going to beat the Wii and the Game Boy, but reaching the +150m threshold is something completely different. For that to happen the Switch needs either a very long lifespan or a massive software output that keep the numbers going high. In regards to the lifespan, we could still see a couple of revisions to keep the numbers going (a cheap home console only version would sell well, a Pro version is more difficult but not impossible). And software-wise, the fact that Nintendo can concentrate on a single platform for the first time since the NES days is helping, but most of the heavy hitters are already out. Mario Kart, Smash, two 3D Marios, Pokemon, Splatoon (soon to be 2), multiple Zelda games, Animal Crossing... There are some things still left, but most of the console sellers are already out.

Yes, and no.

We didn't get another 3D Mario (neither the Super Mario 3D All Stars collection nor 3D World and Bowser's Fury is "another 3D Mario") so there is still room for this to happen. And we al know what "3D Mario" means, it means 10+ million sales, 97 on Metacritic, an redefining what a great game it is. We didn't get this since Super Mario Odyssey, and I am still hoping for Odyssey 2, just like Super Mario Galaxy 2 was way superior to Galaxy 1.

And we'll get an open world Pokémon game, which is requested by the fans for ages.

And Splatoon 3 was anounced 2 months ago, so I don't understand your point about Splatoon 2.

And regarding Zelda games, we have a second one coming, aslo anounced.

And Metroid Prime 4 of course, and Bayonetta 3.

And I still believe Mario Kart 9 will happen. Not now, since the sales momentum is tremendous, but at some point.

But at a certain point we're going to get diminishing returns. People who might buy MK9 probably already bought a Switch for MK8, people who might buy Splatoon 3 already bought a Switch for Splatoon 2, people who might buy Zelda BotW 2 already bought a Switch for BotW, and so on. They will move hardware, sure, but there's a long road to 150m units, and I'm not sure if this will be enough to get there. Games like Pikmin, Metroid, Bayonetta... will sell well, but they aren't traditional system sellers.

And as for 3rd party, most of them are going to focus more on the PS5/XBoxX. They've had four years to bring big titles to the Switch, and yet there haven't been that many big projects coming. Monster Hunter was obvious because it sells the best on handhelds and the Switch is the only non-mobile handheld around, but other than that? Either PS360 ports (and even then you'd think we would've gotten way more of those), general multiplats like Minecraft, Just Dance, Fifa... or relatively small projects like Octopath Traveller. It would be weird for them to now of all times focus on the Switch, when the new consoles are starving for content. It's unlikely that any 3rd party project will become a major system seller, especially now that the userbase is already above +80m.



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Darwinianevolution said:
Matsku said:

There's going to be a Mario kart 9 on Switch and Pokémon Legends will sell Unit's also I think there are more 3rd party exclusive Unit sellers still to come. For example, Shin Megami Tensei V will sell Units in Japan and rest of world. So I don't fully agree with your software point.

SKMBlake said:

Yes, and no.

We didn't get another 3D Mario (neither the Super Mario 3D All Stars collection nor 3D World and Bowser's Fury is "another 3D Mario") so there is still room for this to happen. And we al know what "3D Mario" means, it means 10+ million sales, 97 on Metacritic, an redefining what a great game it is. We didn't get this since Super Mario Odyssey, and I am still hoping for Odyssey 2, just like Super Mario Galaxy 2 was way superior to Galaxy 1.

And we'll get an open world Pokémon game, which is requested by the fans for ages.

And Splatoon 3 was anounced 2 months ago, so I don't understand your point about Splatoon 2.

And regarding Zelda games, we have a second one coming, aslo anounced.

And Metroid Prime 4 of course, and Bayonetta 3.

And I still believe Mario Kart 9 will happen. Not now, since the sales momentum is tremendous, but at some point.

But at a certain point we're going to get diminishing returns. People who might buy MK9 probably already bought a Switch for MK8, people who might buy Splatoon 3 already bought a Switch for Splatoon 2, people who might buy Zelda BotW 2 already bought a Switch for BotW, and so on. They will move hardware, sure, but there's a long road to 150m units, and I'm not sure if this will be enough to get there. Games like Pikmin, Metroid, Bayonetta... will sell well, but they aren't traditional system sellers.

And as for 3rd party, most of them are going to focus more on the PS5/XBoxX. They've had four years to bring big titles to the Switch, and yet there haven't been that many big projects coming. Monster Hunter was obvious because it sells the best on handhelds and the Switch is the only non-mobile handheld around, but other than that? Either PS360 ports (and even then you'd think we would've gotten way more of those), general multiplats like Minecraft, Just Dance, Fifa... or relatively small projects like Octopath Traveller. It would be weird for them to now of all times focus on the Switch, when the new consoles are starving for content. It's unlikely that any 3rd party project will become a major system seller, especially now that the userbase is already above +80m.

There are Still Traditional 3rd Party system sellers in Japan that could be at least timed Switch exclusive like Smt V I mentioned and Dragon Quest 12.

Also I wouldn't have bought a Switch for just MK8 even if I didn't own a WiiU, but could have for MK9.

You also Failed to mention Pokémon Legends which like Blake said is an open-world Pokémon game. I'm predicting at least 3mill console sales the month it launches. It should also help keep Switch momentum going in 2022 as Animal Crossing did in 2020.

Last edited by Matsku - on 23 April 2021

Darwinianevolution said:

But at a certain point we're going to get diminishing returns. People who might buy MK9 probably already bought a Switch for MK8, people who might buy Splatoon 3 already bought a Switch for Splatoon 2, people who might buy Zelda BotW 2 already bought a Switch for BotW, and so on. They will move hardware, sure, but there's a long road to 150m units, and I'm not sure if this will be enough to get there. Games like Pikmin, Metroid, Bayonetta... will sell well, but they aren't traditional system sellers.

And as for 3rd party, most of them are going to focus more on the PS5/XBoxX. They've had four years to bring big titles to the Switch, and yet there haven't been that many big projects coming. Monster Hunter was obvious because it sells the best on handhelds and the Switch is the only non-mobile handheld around, but other than that? Either PS360 ports (and even then you'd think we would've gotten way more of those), general multiplats like Minecraft, Just Dance, Fifa... or relatively small projects like Octopath Traveller. It would be weird for them to now of all times focus on the Switch, when the new consoles are starving for content. It's unlikely that any 3rd party project will become a major system seller, especially now that the userbase is already above +80m.

I mostly agree with you. But there are some points:

- "People who wanted to buy X game probably already have the console" never been a real thing, cause system sellers always push hardware, despite the age of the console. God Of War did, despite launching almost 5 years after the launch of the console, Red Dead Redemption 2 did, Final Fantasy 7 Remake did (despite being released the "last year" of the console), Ghost of Tsushima and Last Of Us Part II did as well.

- People who weren't old enough to have a console back in 2017 when Splatoon 2 was released will eventually be old enough to enjoy Splatoon 3 in 2022. And I personnaly lived this, I was born in 1992, got an original Game Boy in 2000 with Pokémon Blue despite the console being released in 1989. And we'll have kids, who weren't born yet when the NX was announced, that will be old enough to enjoy Pokémon Legends (or Diamond/Pearl remake) now.

- Regarding 3rd parties, as I do believe as you do that no real 3rd party will boost the sales of the console (with exceptions), the great 3rd party support (which is still growing, and become very impressive) definitly help the console sales. I still hope that GTA V will eventually come to the system, with the PS5/Xbox versions.



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Matsku said:
Darwinianevolution said:

SKMBlake said:

Yes, and no.

We didn't get another 3D Mario (neither the Super Mario 3D All Stars collection nor 3D World and Bowser's Fury is "another 3D Mario") so there is still room for this to happen. And we al know what "3D Mario" means, it means 10+ million sales, 97 on Metacritic, an redefining what a great game it is. We didn't get this since Super Mario Odyssey, and I am still hoping for Odyssey 2, just like Super Mario Galaxy 2 was way superior to Galaxy 1.

And we'll get an open world Pokémon game, which is requested by the fans for ages.

And Splatoon 3 was anounced 2 months ago, so I don't understand your point about Splatoon 2.

And regarding Zelda games, we have a second one coming, aslo anounced.

And Metroid Prime 4 of course, and Bayonetta 3.

And I still believe Mario Kart 9 will happen. Not now, since the sales momentum is tremendous, but at some point.

But at a certain point we're going to get diminishing returns. People who might buy MK9 probably already bought a Switch for MK8, people who might buy Splatoon 3 already bought a Switch for Splatoon 2, people who might buy Zelda BotW 2 already bought a Switch for BotW, and so on. They will move hardware, sure, but there's a long road to 150m units, and I'm not sure if this will be enough to get there. Games like Pikmin, Metroid, Bayonetta... will sell well, but they aren't traditional system sellers.

And as for 3rd party, most of them are going to focus more on the PS5/XBoxX. They've had four years to bring big titles to the Switch, and yet there haven't been that many big projects coming. Monster Hunter was obvious because it sells the best on handhelds and the Switch is the only non-mobile handheld around, but other than that? Either PS360 ports (and even then you'd think we would've gotten way more of those), general multiplats like Minecraft, Just Dance, Fifa... or relatively small projects like Octopath Traveller. It would be weird for them to now of all times focus on the Switch, when the new consoles are starving for content. It's unlikely that any 3rd party project will become a major system seller, especially now that the userbase is already above +80m.

There are Still Traditional 3rd Party system sellers in Japan that could be at least timed Switch exclusive like Smt V I mentioned and Dragon Quest 12.

Also I wouldn't have bought a Switch for just MK8 even if I didn't own a WiiU, but could have for MK9.

You also Failed to mention Pokémon Legends which like Blake said is an open-world Pokémon game. I'm predicting at least 3mill console sales the month it launches.

Shin Megami Tensei is quite a niche franchise, only the Persona games would be able to really move hardware. Dragon Quest is big, but people who buy JRPGs probably already bought them for either Xenoblade, DQ11, Octopath, Fire Emblem...

And as for Pokemon Legends, it will move consoles, but we're talking 150m. We have no idea whether it's going to be as big as a main title or if it's going to make spinoff numbers. We know too little about it to assume anything. And anyway, Sword/Shield are going to become the second best selling pokemon games of all time (only a couple of million units to beat GSC), people who want pokemon already have a console.



You know it deserves the GOTY.

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It’s selling fast and things are going well, but 156M or whatever is still along way away. Anything could happen, it’s still 50/50 to me; I wouldn’t bet on it, but I wouldn’t bet against it either.

gord352 said:

No it won't. Not unless it has an insanely long life span but I'm not convinced it will.


Put it this way the DS didn't outsell the PS2 and the Switch is behind the DS in the charts.

But in front of PS2.



I'm gonna say no. Figure Switch will be replaced in 2024, and sell 140+ million.

Only way I see it passing PS2 is if Nintendo uses the upgraded model to bring a high tech exclusive line of games and sort of treats it as a Switch 1.5 that gets a lot of people to upgrade to be able to play add a "high tech" library of games to their Switch and this extends the Switch life out to like 2026. But I doubt that's the plan.



Slownenberg said:

I'm gonna say no. Figure Switch will be replaced in 2024, and sell 140+ million.

Only way I see it passing PS2 is if Nintendo uses the upgraded model to bring a high tech exclusive line of games and sort of treats it as a Switch 1.5 that gets a lot of people to upgrade to be able to play add a "high tech" library of games to their Switch and this extends the Switch life out to like 2026. But I doubt that's the plan.

If the revision has dlss like the rumors are saying that could be what brings high tech games. Furkawa wiewing Sony and Microsoft as competition also supports a big upgrade coming.

Last edited by Matsku - on 23 April 2021

Of course