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Forums - Sales Discussion - Will Switch outsell DS? PS2? Or neither?

 

Will Switch outsell PS2 and/or DS?

Yes, it will outsell PS2's (~159Million) 99 57.23%
 
Will outsell the DS, but not the PS2 74 42.77%
 
Switch will fall short of both DS & PS2 0 0%
 
Total:173
Raven on 05 May 2021
mZuzek said:
curl-6 said:

The fact that it's "30 million Switches" and not "20 million Switches and 10 million of Switch's successor" should make it pretty clear we shouldn't expect a generational leap. With Nintendo unable to meet demand for the base Switch at $300 USD even after 4 years with no price cut, they're probably figuring that they can get away with selling a midgen refresh with a better screen, a performance boost, more storage, and 4K upscaling when docked for $400.

Yeah. You're not gonna have an easy time finding people that think the Switch hardware is laughable and unacceptable among the 20 million plus that bought Pokémon Sword/Shield. And loads of Wii U ports at $60. And are paying $20 yearly for a crappy service because they want to play P2P online.

Not trying to say Switch owners have no standards. Just saying many Switch owners have no standards.

Nintendo will be fine.

Edit: as for the OP, since I haven't posted here yet... personally I don't think so. The Switch's been making it a habit of surpassing everyone's expectations so it's foolish to rule it out, but I do feel 150 million will be beyond it.

We get it, you're cynical. Buy a different platform if it bothers you so much. The complete overgeneralization of an 80m fanbase on a platform with literally thousands of other games to play than any of the ones you're complaining about is a pretty steep punishment because Sword and Shield were subpar Pokemon games.



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Ganoncrotch on 05 May 2021

Sure, it's currently outselling it every week. I really can't see the PS2 taking a week over the Switch until sometime around 2034 when a new crate of ps2 systems will be discovered and sold at auction to retro gamers and Nintendo will have moved onto selling the 3SwitchDUiiXL



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numberwang on 05 May 2021
curl-6 said:
numberwang said:

$399 would be twice the price of the Switch Lite and the same as the PS5 non-disc. Sony's newest console ships with an 825GB fast SSD. Nintvidia better bring the good stuff if they want to charge a premium price for a handheld with dock. Anything below 128GB or really 256Gb is laughable nowadays. Allegedly Nintendo plans to ship 30 million units in the fiscal year 2021/22 so we should expect a generational leap that should convince consumers to buy a premium device on hardware specs.

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2021/05/nintendo_will_reportedly_ramp_up_switch_output_to_30_million_this_fiscal_year

The fact that it's "30 million Switches" and not "20 million Switches and 10 million of Switch's successor" should make it pretty clear we shouldn't expect a generational leap. With Nintendo unable to meet demand for the base Switch at $300 USD even after 4 years with no price cut, they're probably figuring that they can get away with selling a midgen refresh with a better screen, a performance boost, more storage, and 4K upscaling when docked for $400.

Don't pretend that you can understand nuances of corporate Japanese language to decipher a distinction between units and successors.

That supposed incremental hardware update would be a farcical for $399 compared to market benchmarks. We will see if we end up with a New3DS situation (big fail, too late in the life cycle, not enough for the money) or some real upgrade worth its asking price. There is no 4K DLSS upscaling without deep integration into engines, so don't expect advanced upscaling for existing games. It is a strange idea to create an all new chipset with DLSS, a feature that is not backward compatible, just as a mid gen stopgap. That "Pro" better have some long legs and not getting replaced in two years like the Xbox One X was.



curl-6 on 05 May 2021
numberwang said:
curl-6 said:

The fact that it's "30 million Switches" and not "20 million Switches and 10 million of Switch's successor" should make it pretty clear we shouldn't expect a generational leap. With Nintendo unable to meet demand for the base Switch at $300 USD even after 4 years with no price cut, they're probably figuring that they can get away with selling a midgen refresh with a better screen, a performance boost, more storage, and 4K upscaling when docked for $400.

Don't pretend that you can understand nuances of corporate Japanese language to decipher a distinction between units and successors.

That supposed incremental hardware update would be a farcical for $399 compared to market benchmarks. We will see if we end up with a New3DS situation (big fail, too late in the life cycle, not enough for the money) or some real upgrade worth its asking price. There is no 4K DLSS upscaling without deep integration into engines, so don't expect advanced upscaling for existing games. It is a strange idea to create an all new chipset with DLSS, a feature that is not backward compatible, just a a mid gen stop gap. That "Pro" better have some long legs and not getting replaced in two years like the Xbox One X was.

No offense but from your posts here and in other threads it seems to me that what this is really about is that you desperately want to be able to classify Switch Pro as a separate successor just so you can say Switch did not outsell Playstation 4/5. 

Last edited by curl-6 - on 05 May 2021

brute on 05 May 2021
curl-6 said:
numberwang said:

Don't pretend that you can understand nuances of corporate Japanese language to decipher a distinction between units and successors.

That supposed incremental hardware update would be a farcical for $399 compared to market benchmarks. We will see if we end up with a New3DS situation (big fail, too late in the life cycle, not enough for the money) or some real upgrade worth its asking price. There is no 4K DLSS upscaling without deep integration into engines, so don't expect advanced upscaling for existing games. It is a strange idea to create an all new chipset with DLSS, a feature that is not backward compatible, just a a mid gen stop gap. That "Pro" better have some long legs and not getting replaced in two years like the Xbox One X was.

No offense but from your posts here and in other threads it seems to me that what this is really about is that you desperately want to be able to classify Switch Pro as a separate successor just so you can say Switch did not outsell Playstation 4/5. 

Switch will outsell PS4 even without the Pro sales.



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numberwang on 05 May 2021

You have to distance yourself from the affection for a piece of plastic. I don't own any modern console and don't care about some classification. I hope you realize the contradiction between a) it's just a mid gen refresh for $399 and b) it's an all new powerful device and thus worth its alleged high price.

The New3DS was just $220 to give some perspective of how much $399 would be for a simple mid gen refresh handheld. Even a true Switch2 for $399 sounds expensive to me. I can see Nintendo fans justifying it by saying: well now it's technically not a new handheld so we can put it into the same irrelevant internet category, good thing we paid a lot for little. I hope N will offer some true generational upgrade if $399 is true because you don't want to spend that money for a stopgap.



Raven on 05 May 2021
numberwang said:

You have to distance yourself from the affection for a piece of plastic. I don't own any modern console and don't care about some classification. I hope you realize the contradiction between a) it's just a mid gen refresh for $399 and b) it's an all new powerful device and thus worth its alleged high price.

The New3DS was just $220 to give some perspective of how much $399 would be for a simple mid gen refresh handheld. Even a true Switch2 for $399 sounds expensive to me. I can see Nintendo fans justifying it by saying: well now it's technically not a new handheld so we can put it into the same irrelevant internet category, good thing we paid a lot for little. I hope N will offer some true generational upgrade if $399 is true because you don't want to spend that money for a stopgap.

You're tying yourself in knots a this point. The 2DS was being sold at $79.99 while the New 3DS XL was being sold at $199.99. Are they two different generations of device? No, obviously not. If Nintendo says the Switch Pro is part of the same family as the original Switch and the Lite, then that's what it is. It's not about affection, it's about following what every console manufacturer has been doing for like 35 years at this point. 

Last edited by Raven - on 05 May 2021

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curl-6 on 05 May 2021
numberwang said:

You have to distance yourself from the affection for a piece of plastic. I don't own any modern console and don't care about some classification. I hope you realize the contradiction between a) it's just a mid gen refresh for $399 and b) it's an all new powerful device and thus worth its alleged high price.

The New3DS was just $220 to give some perspective of how much $399 would be for a simple mid gen refresh handheld. Even a true Switch2 for $399 sounds expensive to me. I can see Nintendo fans justifying it by saying: well now it's technically not a new handheld so we can put it into the same irrelevant internet category, good thing we paid a lot for little. I hope N will offer some true generational upgrade if $399 is true because you don't want to spend that money for a stopgap.

As I've said though, the base Switch is still flying off shelves at $300 after 4 years. Despite it still not having had a price cut, even when many said it was overpriced at launch, (myself among them) Nintendo can't keep up with demand.

In that context, I can easily see them pricing a mid-gen "New Nintendo Switch" with a better and bigger screen, more storage, 4K upscaling, and a performance buff at $400. PS4 Pro and Xbox One X both cost what, $100-$200 more than the base model? Nintendo loves those sweet profit margins and people will run out and buy it on masse even if its not sporting a generational boost in graphics, just like the ran out in droves in 2017 to buy a system with less graphics power than a base Xbox One.

The consumers the Switch is targeting aren't looking for the latest in high end graphics technology.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 05 May 2021

Random_Matt on 05 May 2021

Don't see it lasting long enough. A new successor will launch within two years I reckon.



numberwang on 06 May 2021
curl-6 said:
numberwang said:

You have to distance yourself from the affection for a piece of plastic. I don't own any modern console and don't care about some classification. I hope you realize the contradiction between a) it's just a mid gen refresh for $399 and b) it's an all new powerful device and thus worth its alleged high price.

The New3DS was just $220 to give some perspective of how much $399 would be for a simple mid gen refresh handheld. Even a true Switch2 for $399 sounds expensive to me. I can see Nintendo fans justifying it by saying: well now it's technically not a new handheld so we can put it into the same irrelevant internet category, good thing we paid a lot for little. I hope N will offer some true generational upgrade if $399 is true because you don't want to spend that money for a stopgap.

As I've said though, the base Switch is still flying off shelves at $300 after 4 years. Despite it still not having had a price cut, even when many said it was overpriced at launch, (myself among them) Nintendo can't keep up with demand.

In that context, I can easily see them pricing a mid-gen "New Nintendo Switch" with a better and bigger screen, more storage, 4K upscaling, and a performance buff at $400. PS4 Pro and Xbox One X both cost what, $100-$200 more than the base model? Nintendo loves those sweet profit margins and people will run out and buy it on masse even if its not sporting a generational boost in graphics, just like the ran out in droves in 2017 to buy a system with less graphics power than a base Xbox One.

The consumers the Switch is targeting aren't looking for the latest in high end graphics technology.

Nintendo buyers are too cozy towards Nintendo (and reap respective negative results). The "Pro" would arrive 4.5 years after the launch of the Switch, which is more typical for a complete cycle of Nintendo hardware, same goes for the alleged high price. For comparison, Sony released their PS4Pro just after 3 years, excellent timing. Would you spend $399 for an incremental update so you can spend that money again in maybe less than 2 years for a true successor and would you feel tricked afterwards? I hope it's not another XBOX One X (too late, too expensive, aborted after 3 years, not forward compatible).