I know this probably been asked a million times here. But I wanna know your most recent perspective on this matter.

Imma say yes it will.

No.

No. 

the answer to that question fully depends on what year you believe the switch successor will release

if the switch stays as their main console for a longer life cycle than usual like they've claimed they would like, maybe until like 2025-2026 or something, and keeps up the momentum then possibly, but I feel like Nintendo will prob cut it off and release a successor before it gets the chance

I thought it said "Will Smith outsell PS2" for a second. lol

But to answer the question, no, I dont think it will.

I would like to eat crow on this but... Nope

Definitely yes.  (See signature.)

pfft. Not a chance.

I don’t know, but the people saying there’s no chance aren’t to be respected. The momentum is currently very high, and it’s not likely Nintendo will cut support any time soon, especially with continuing third party support like they have traditionally done from SNES onward - a stupid strategy IMO, but there is a chance they’re done with it.

Support or not, the successor will be a factor. There are a number of factors, such as whether or not the next generation of Switch will be considered separate or part of the Switch family of consoles like GBC was to GB, DSi was to DS. Nintendo has experimented with longevity in the 3DS, although on a much smaller scale. They also continued running it alongside the Switch for a bit longer.

Of course, iterative or not, if the next Switch is represented as a completely separate system, then it will probably come short simply because of the cannibalization factor.

I do favour higher sales at this point. Someone with more darts than I’m willing to dig up can verify that even with a steep decline curve, the Switch will at least hit third place. But a steep decline curse would require Nintendo actively transitioning away.

It's going to be difficult. No doubt it's going to beat the Wii and the Game Boy, but reaching the +150m threshold is something completely different. For that to happen the Switch needs either a very long lifespan or a massive software output that keep the numbers going high. In regards to the lifespan, we could still see a couple of revisions to keep the numbers going (a cheap home console only version would sell well, a Pro version is more difficult but not impossible). And software-wise, the fact that Nintendo can concentrate on a single platform for the first time since the NES days is helping, but most of the heavy hitters are already out. Mario Kart, Smash, two 3D Marios, Pokemon, Splatoon (soon to be 2), multiple Zelda games, Animal Crossing... There are some things still left, but most of the console sellers are already out.