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Forums - Sales Discussion - Second Edition - Animal Crossing: New Horizons shipped 31.18m by December 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?


Animal Crossing: New Horizons shipped 31.18m by December 31st. Lifetime sales expectations?

Less than 35 million 25 3.76%
35.0 - 37.4 million 51 7.67%
37.5 - 39.9 million 65 9.77%
40.0 - 44.9 million 211 31.73%
45.0 - 49.9 million 124 18.65%
50.0 - 54.9 million 101 15.19%
55.0 - 59.9 million 31 4.66%
60.0 - 64.9 million 11 1.65%
65.0 - 70.0 million 4 0.60%
More than 70 million 42 6.32%
The_Liquid_Laser said:
anonymunchy said:

They could buy a switch lite for $100 cheaper, or a second hand model.

The current average population increase is estimated at 81 million people per year, so I don't think those numbers will run out any time soon.

Mario Kart's worst FY was FY18, where it sold 7.5million units and looking at the other evergreens, its a pretty safe bet that Animal Crossing will do an average of 5million per year. This would put it at roughly 50million at the end of 2024, so sounds like a very reasonable estimate.

Personally, I think next FY it'll do better than Mario Kart's best FY, which for the moment is its launch year, FY17, at 9.6million. Though FY20 is looking like it will surpass it and maybe tickle 10million. I'm going for 60-64.9million, though a longer Switch life-cycle could see it soar past 70million.

bonus: No, I have not bought it. I was doubting it for a while, but I tend to get bored rather quickly with sim games and my backlog is big enough.

Are you being facetious?  I am aware there are around 8 billion people in the world.  The market for dedicated gaming devices is a tiny fraction of that.  Those 81 million new people per year are irrelevant to the discussion.

The sales limit, based on the past, is Mario Kart Wii sales of about 37m.  That is the highest number of sales for a single platform game that wasn't packed in at launch (like Wii Sports).  Animal Crossing is going to blow past that.  It's going to set the new standard for maximum sales.  What is that new record going to be?  Who the hell knows?

Yeh man, was just a play on "I just feel like these numbers have to run out eventually." I'll do the little ':P' next time. :P

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Raven said:

Pretty amazing honestly, I feel like there's still a lot of life left in the title as well, seeing as how Nintendo released an expansion pack-esque update to New Leaf on the 3DS. I'm sure Nintendo will be doing things to extend the lifecycle of New Horizons as well.

I'm all for that as long as it doesn't take until late 2026 or beyond for the successor to New Horizons (which will be on the next piece of Nintendo hardware) to launch. The wait from New Leaf to New Horizons was excruciating. If we don't get the Switch 2 until 2025 or later, Animal Crossing should be a launch or launch window title.

Animal Crossing will continue to sell very well. The sequel to New Horizons will get the franchise past the 100 million mark (it's currently over 65 million).

Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 144 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million)

PS5: 105 million Xbox Series S/X: 60 million

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

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