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Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition: Week 39 - Last Week of September; Pre-OLED Model launch

TheFallen said:

Nice work on drawing up all the data. I appreciate all the effort. I'm only going to comment on one factor at the moment, which is the PS3 '14 vs PS4 '21 data. I believe PS3 holds a significant advantage for a number of reasons; Obviously no Pandemic which has affected the production of both PS4 &5, with Sony having to re-purpose and streamline PS4 production lines into PS5 production.

Another factor is that if consumers wanted to play PS3 games in 2014, you had to purchase a PS3 console as PS4 didn't offer backwards compatibility with PS3 disc games or PSN games. Whereas on PS5, the vast majority of games are backwards compatible and the network is fully connected across the gen 8/9 consoles, which makes the transition from PS4 to 5 seemless. The PS3 and 4 transition felt really separated in comparison. So if i'm a customer looking to jump in to a PS4, well I have an option to pay an extra premium to get essentially a PS4 & 5 console in one package with the purchase of a PS5. I feel this particular point people don't really consider when comparing the sales.

The last point is the fact that there is currently a semi-conducter chip shortage, which is compounding the logistics issues associated with the Pandemic and affecting console production. Again, PS3 didn't suffer with this issue in 2014. All these factors contribute to less PS4 sales in 2021 compared with PS3 in 2014.

I'm sure backwards compatibilty plays a part but unless there are major adjustments to come for Nov/Dec sales then the first holiday of PS4 (& XBOne) post-successor release is incredibly low, a far bigger drop than any previous console afaik whether they had backward compatible features or not. Also given the shortages of the PS5 you would think it might encourage some to settle for PS4 if that's what's available.

I think the earlier lockdown high demand & the chip shortage, plus the increased cost & delays of global shipping are far & away the bigger factors in PS4 poor holiday performance, combined with it's still high price for 7y.o hardware. (the price remaining high may also be partly because of the chip shortage & shipping difficulties)



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Week 5 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Up in the United States; Down in Europe, Japan, and the Rest of the World; Down overall.

PlayStation 5: Up in Japan and the Rest of the World; Down in the United States and Europe; Up overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions.

One month is officially in the books for 2021 and we now enter February and the 5th week of the year. And so far, we are seeing some trends being set.

The '21 PS4 has been consistently down all 5 weeks against the '14 PS4 thus far. While U.S. and Europe remain competitive in this comparison, the Japan and Rest of the World comparisons have been completely one-sided up to this point.

The PS5 vs. PS4 comparison has been much closer as the PS5 continues to slowly chip away at the lead the PS4 built in the first 2 weeks of the year. However, the main reason for why this has been the case is because the PS4 has the advantage of having a free region due to the fact that the PS4 did not release in Japan until Week 8. Once Week 8 roles in, we're going to see that lead skyrocket in favor of the PS4.

The Xbox One vs. Xbox 360 comparison has been anything but competitive thus far, with the 360 continuously adding to its lead by considerable margins and pulling further away from the Xbox One. This one is pretty much a forgone conclusion.

The Xbox Series vs. Xbox One comparison is the most probably the most encouraging one in this thread, especially if you're an Xbox fan. After losing the 1st week, the Series X/S has gone on to win the next 4 weeks, each advantage bigger than the last. Week 10 in 2014 was the release of Titanfall, which was positioned as a major 1st party exclusive at the time and boosted Xbox One sales for that week. However, I think that will only make a dent in the Series X/S lead which will continue to mount up until then. And as we get towards the end of May, where the Xbox One baseline was really down at subpar levels, the Series X/S should be pretty far ahead at that point.

The Nintendo Switch comparison, which is the by far the most anticipated comparison on this thread based on the poll, is fairly close considering the level of sales the system is at. The '21 Switch adds to its lead in all 4 regions yet again over the '20 Switch, and that's despite the fact that Japan saw a noticeable drop from the previous week. Week 6 will see a the '20 Switch have a big bump from Week 5, thanks in large part to Japan. However, it also will mark the release of Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury, and we already saw it have an effect on Japan in the Famitsu thread, and I expect it to have an even bigger effect in the US and Europe, considering Mario, especially 3D Mario, is much more popular in the West than he is in the homeland.



PAOerfulone said:

The '21 PS4 has been consistently down all 5 weeks against the '14 PS3 thus far. While U.S. and Europe remain competitive in this comparison, the Japan and Rest of the World comparisons have been completely one-sided up to this point.

The Xbox One vs. Xbox 360 comparison has been anything but competitive thus far, with the 360 continuously adding to its lead by considerable margins and pulling further away from the Xbox One. This one is pretty much a forgone conclusion.

I think those 2 have to be 21'PS4 vs 15'PS3 or vs 14'XB360 to be more comparable and interesting ..

and the other one 21'XB1 vs 15'XB360 or vs 15'PS3 again to be more comparable and to at least have some chance of fighting ..

Because neither will make their predecessor numbers for 2014. PS4 is not making close to 4M this year (if there is no some surprising pricecut)

and XB1 is not making 2.7M for sure.

With the 2014 for 360 (PS4 vs 360) and 2015 for 360 (XB1 vs 360) comparison we will have more clear look at where sales for the two consoles are going this year.

How much PS4 is going above the 2.7M of 360 that year, and how much XB1 is doing comparing it to the around 1M sales of the 360 in 2015.

Or if you want to include PS3 it can be XB1 vs PS3 in 2015 or XB1 vs PS3 in 2016 1.7M and 700k both will be close enough.

I think for the purpose of comparing the sales and to be interesting battle and to have any point in doing it in first place you can make those changes,

yes maybe it will not make full sense because it won't be the old consoles first year for the XB1 comparison, and the PS4 will be vs the competitor console, however it will really be much much more interesting to all than those battles now, cuz they are already done..

Last edited by yo33331 - on 20 February 2021

Whens the last time the switch sold less than 200k in a week?



@pikashoe Probably not since before the Switch Lite launched in 2019. Hasn't even been under 300000 since before ACNH launched (and although I expect Switch sales through out late March to probably around September or October to be down compared to 2020, I'd be surprised if it dips below 300000 often).



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@pikashoe last time it was below 300k was last year the week ending March 7, last time below 200K was the week ending August 24, 2019



pikashoe said:

Whens the last time the switch sold less than 200k in a week?

2019, week 34, so late August that year. And that was probably just due to people waiting for the new Lite and upgraded models to launch...



Switch currently up by 26.5%.
I'm really looking forward to see how much of a hit 2021 sales will take in late march and april compared to 2020.
I think Monster Hunter Rise will put a little fight but it won't be as huge as Animal Crossing



I think switch will last alot longer than xbox 360. reason? switch is printing so much money by the time switch sales go below 15 million will be 2025 I believe? if not switch will keep selling until it ever drops to 10 million which probably won't happen.



Cute and honest Sega Saturn fan, also noone should buy Sega grrrr, Sega for life.

Looking at that switch battle 2020 vs 2021 ,It's safe that switch will sell another 25+ million ,animal crossing still pumping hadware sales and monster hunter rise will increase it more , I'm unsure if I should make a bet but this year switch might hit 30 milliion? without a bayonetta 3 or  metroid prime 4 or mario kart 9 this is making me excited .



Cute and honest Sega Saturn fan, also noone should buy Sega grrrr, Sega for life.