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Forums - Sales Discussion - PlayStation/Xbox/Switch Hardware Battle: 2021 Edition: Week 35 - First Week of September

Oh yeah, forgot about that. 



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Nice thread, it'll interesting to follow throughout the year.

For XB360 vs XB1, I've noticed you're comparing XB360 2014 vs XB1 2021 which is comparing the 9th full year of 360 vs the 8th full year of One. I guess it doesn't matter much because even the 360's 9th year is kicking One's 8th year's ass but it's a bit weird since the other comparison are aligned.



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TruckOSaurus said:

Nice thread, it'll interesting to follow throughout the year.

For XB360 vs XB1, I've noticed you're comparing XB360 2014 vs XB1 2021 which is comparing the 9th full year of 360 vs the 8th full year of One. I guess it doesn't matter much because even the 360's 9th year is kicking One's 8th year's ass but it's a bit weird since the other comparison are aligned.

I just went with this comparison because both of those years were the first full years of their successors. Like 2014 was the first full year if the Xbox One and 2021 is the first full year of the Xbox Series. Even if this the 360’s 11th year vs. the One’s 6th year, I’d still make the comparison because they’re both the 1st year following the launch of their successor.



Week 8 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Down in Japan; Up in the United States, Europe, and the Rest of the World; Down Overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions.

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Week 8 has come and gone, the last week of February for this year and with them, we had some changes. The latest NPD data led to some notable adjustments being made. Specifically with the Switch being adjusted WAY up, the PS5 slightly up, and Xbox Series just a little down. Now, the PS5 was just slightly ahead of the PS4 last week, but this week blew that lead out of the water since this was when the PS4 launched in Japan back in 2014, and the results are clearly evident. Now the PS5 is back where it started, playing catch up. However, it should happen relatively soon seeing as how the PS5's baseline continues to get higher and higher the more stock it receives. The Xbox Series should continue to build on its lead over the Xbox One as both Sony and Microsoft can look forward to having their newest consoles outpacing their previous ones, post-launch. So far, so good, for the 4K Twins.

As for the Nintendo Switch, it continues to blow the competition out of the water with sales consistently in the 350-450k range. Even nearly reaching 500k for Week 6 - the week Bowser's Fury came out. These next 3 weeks will be the calm before the storm and then on the 4th week of March (a 5-week month this year), the monster rises.



Week 9 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Down in Japan; Up in the United States, Europe, and the Rest of the World; Up Overall.

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions.

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Week 9 this year marks the very first week of March and with it the beginning of our first 5-week month of this year. And we've got quite the month ahead of us. Especially on the Nintendo side of things, but more on that later.

Sony - Now that the Japanese launch of the PS4 in 2014 has passed, its weekly sales have almost immediately dropped back down to normal levels, and as such, the PS5 went right back to its winning ways and is not cutting into the PS4's regained lead. It would seem that the Japanese launch of the PS4 only served to delay the inevitable, which is the total takeover of the PS5 as Sony continues to try and catch up with the demand of the system. And the more and more stock the PS5 receives to catch up with demand, the further in decline that the PS4 will continue to slide as this week marks the 4th week in a row that weekly sales have dropped to an all-time low. For comparison's sake, the PS3 didn't sink to the mid-low 40k levels until summer of 2014. At this rate, the PS4 sales may drop to half that mark. This is shaping up to be the brutal beginning of an anticlimactic end to a system that was once unstoppable. Instead of going out with a bang, it's going out with a whimper.

Microsoft - The Xbox Series adds another win in its column and continues to build on its lead over the Xbox One. As Microsoft continues to catch up with demand of THEIR newest system, they can take great joy in the fact that this continues to show how they've come leaps and bounds from where they were last gen after that disastrous reveal and the negative impact it had on its first year, and ultimately, lifetime sales. Speaking of which, if you thought the PS4's weekly baseline now was bad, imagine the Xbox One's. Yikes. Sales are less than half of what the 360's sales in 2014 were at this point in time. At this rate, the Xbox One will just barely make it past 50 million, and not much more. Microsoft certainly is chomping at the bit to put the Xbox One era behind them.

Nintendo - Another week, another monstrous outing for the Nintendo Switch which is clicking on all cylinders just three weeks before the launch of its biggest 3rd party game to date, and depending on what the rest of year has in store, their biggest release of 2021. Going back to my point earlier about this month. It was this around this time last year when COVID had spread overseas and not long after, sent the entire world into full lockdown and the pandemic officially began. Now here we are, one year later, we are STILL in said pandemic, but now we are FINALLY starting to see the end in sight. What does that mean for the Switch in particular? Simply put, with the lockdowns going into effect and everyone forced to stay indoors, they needed something to pass all that time. And there were two forms of media that fit that bill to a tee: Streaming and video games. And it just so happened that the Switch was the #1 system at the time and not long after, Animal Crossing: New Horizons released and BOOM! Like a stick of dynamite, sales absolutely exploded and the weekly baseline ascended to an-absolute-other level. The first week of March 2020 was the LAST TIME the Switch had a week with sales below 300k. All of that is going to make the rest of the year after this month an EXTREMELY difficult battle for 2021 to overcome. And that test starts with this month when Animal Crossing and Monster Hunter go head-to-head.



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PAOerfulone said:

And the more and more stock the PS5 receives to catch up with demand, the further in decline that the PS4 will continue to slide as this week marks the 4th week in a row that weekly sales have dropped to an all-time low. For comparison's sake, the PS3 didn't sink to the mid-low 40k levels until summer of 2014. At this rate, the PS4 sales may drop to half that mark. This is shaping up to be the brutal beginning of an anticlimactic end to a system that was once unstoppable. Instead of going out with a bang, it's going out with a whimper.

Speaking of which, if you thought the PS4's weekly baseline now was bad, imagine the Xbox One's. Yikes. Sales are less than half of what the 360's sales in 2014 were at this point in time. At this rate, the Xbox One will just barely make it past 50 million, and not much more. Microsoft certainly is chomping at the bit to put the Xbox One era behind them.

Just change the comparison table to PS4 '21 vs XB360 '14 (where the race will be much closer, interesting, and it will give us better perspective on what numbers will PS4 do this year, XB360 '14 made 2.7M so PS4 should be somewhere around there).

And change the other comparison table to XB1 '21 vs either PS3 '15 or XB360 '15 (the same thing here, much closer, interesting, and giving us better perspective, the PS3 in 2015 was 1.7M, and XB360 in 2015 was close to 1M, so both of them should be relatively close to the 2021 XB1 numbers).



No, I don’t care if it would be a closer comparison. That’s not the point.

The point is to see how current platforms do in comparison to their predecessors under the same circumstances (first year after the launch of their successor.) So that it gives us an idea and paints a picture of how Sony and Microsoft have built upon or squandered their momentum from the previous generation. Even if it was the other way around and the PS4 was blowing the PS3 out of the water or the XB1 was crushing the 360, I still wouldn’t change it, nor do I plan to.



Week 10 Breakdown:

PlayStation 4: Down in all regions.

PlayStation 5: Up in all regions

Xbox One: Down in all regions.

Xbox Series: Up in all regions.

Nintendo Switch: Up in all regions.

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Week 10 has now come and gone. And here's the landscape:

Sony - The lows keep getting lower for the PS4 as it on the verge of dropping below 40k sales per week. It's getting to the point where the PS3 is almost outselling it at a 2:1 ratio, and if that were to extend for the year as a whole, then 2021 PS4 sales would fall short of 2 million. On the flip side, the PS5's baseline only seems to keep getting higher. Funny how that works. The PS5 has now closed the gap to under 100k and it is expected to overtake the PS4 and jump ahead in the coming weeks. Either the last week of March or first week of April would be my guess.

Microsoft - The general story is the same for Microsoft as the Xbox One continues to fade further and further into obscurity, now closing in on under 15k a week. Perhaps a sub-10k week may be in the cards. The Xbox Series adds to its lead again, stretching it to over 250k. Though, next week it should shrink due to the release of Titanfall around that same period in 2014 which more than doubled Xbox One sales that week. But then they almost immediately fell back to normal and then the baseline just dipped to almost Wii U levels before it finally ditched the Kinect 2.0 and got a price cut. By that point, the Xbox Series should be off to a very big lead and a steady baseline that's north of 100k.

Nintendo - A newsworthy week for the Nintendo Switch as it has offically passed the PlayStation Portable on the all time Video Game Console sales list. And it is primed and poised to past the Game Boy Advance next week, and then we'll have Monster Hunter Rise the week after going head-to-head with Animal Crossing: New Horizons from last year. It will almost certainly do monstrous numbers in Japan, the only question is how much will that boost extend to the other regions?



With this week, it now has been an entire year where the Switch hasn't dropped below 350k in the weekly sales anymore. I'm not sure if even the DS managed that feat.



Bofferbrauer2 said:

With this week, it now has been an entire year where the Switch hasn't dropped below 350k in the weekly sales anymore. I'm not sure if even the DS managed that feat.

Looking at the charts there is a 1 year period from middle of Jan 2007 to middle of Jan 2008 where it had 2 weeks below 350k, one of them in March is basically a statistical tie (347k is within the margin of error as far as i'm concerned) & the other is the post Christmas January supply shortage.
And if you extend the period an additional year to 2009 its only 11 total weeks, 5 of them being within the margin of error & most of the rest due to January shortages.

Still if we take the figures as gospel, DS's longest streak was 40 weeks above 350k (April 7th 2007 - Jan 5th 2008)


Switch has also had 1 week ending August 2020 that was 336k (maybe it was higher when first reported but adjusted down) so the current streak is technically 32 weeks, so 8 more weeks should beat the DS record.

Ultimately the 350k barrier is arbitrary, if we move it to 290k for example then the Switch has currently recorded 53 weeks, which is far better than any other system apart from the DS (next best are Wii at 21 weeks & PS4 at 18 weeks), but the DS managed it for 159 weeks.

Last edited by HigHurtenflurst - on 27 March 2021